The 5.5 Hole

Papelbon and Other Overpaid Closers

When a team has money, evaluative methods seem to go out the window.  The Phillies are proving this theory once again with the Jonathan Papelpon signing.  The reported deal is worth $50 million over 4 years.  It could be worth more after incentives, but we'll analyze the contract based on the $50 million figure.  That's $12,500,000 a year. 

While a contract this huge for a player who pitches one inning every game or so seems insane, it is not all that uncommon.  $12,500,000 a year makes Papelpon the second highest paid relief pitcher, but there were 4 other players who made over $10,000,000 a year in 2011.  The fact is, though, saves can be bought for much less. 

Last season, the average number of saves for all of baseball was right around 27 (rounding up).  Based on the 2011 contracts of the closers earning these saves, the average salary was $3,840,129.  The average cost of a save in 2011 was $143,021.  

Based on Papelbon's $12,500,000 yearly contract with the Phillies, he would have to save 88 games to be worth the money.  Anything less, the Phillies overspent.  Anything more, they got a bargain.  Anyone willing to bet the Phillies got a bargain?

Using the 2011 figures and our calculation of $143,021 cost per save, let's take a look at who over spent and who got a deal. 



As you can see, 25 of the 40 players analyzed exceeded their value based on saves.  You'll notice there are players on this list with only single-digit saves, players who were injured, and players who lost their closer roles.  This may skew the list slightly if we are thinking about players like Joe Nathan who made $11,250,000 and only saved 14 games.  However, I think it balances out with players like Craig Kimbrel and John Axford. 

The fact that 25 players exceeded their expected value indicates a greater need for contract analysis when signing closers.  Jonathan Papelbon is just the most recent big name, but there are others.  Heath Bell is going to be commanding a raise even with his "home town discount."  Once Kimbrel and Axford reach their arbitration-eligible years, they will be making quite a bit more.  I think if teams were operating a lot closer to the league average yearly salary for a closer, they would get more bang for their buck. 

I understand the formula I'm working with here is more simplistic than the reality of finding decent closers for a proper salary.  But the idea behind it is sound.  $12,500,000 a year for a closer is far more than any team should pay.  Anything over $10,000,000 is far more than a team should pay.  In the grand scheme, saves only account for about half a teams wins.  And remember, saves are just the last few outs (or last three innings depending on the circumstance) of a game.  To pay a player as much as Papelbon will be paid is insane.   Teams should spend their money elsewhere, like offense.

About : Raja CRN

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