The 5.5 Hole

No one can be faulted for wanting to see greatness.  The desire to see excellence on the baseball field is a perfectly normal and understandable feeling.  However, there is a difference between wishing to see a great pitcher in action and wishing to sell tickets.

Stephen Strasburg is coming off Tommy John surgery.  I wrote about him and his rehab starts a few weeks ago, and you can read that here.  Since that start, Strasburg has had five more, mostly good, starts.  Last night was the last of those six total Minor League rehab starts.  He is expected to join the Washington Nationals and pitch at least twice down the stretch.  But why?

"I think the work isn't done. I need to keep on grinding, finish the season strong here and go into the offseason healthy," Strasburg said in an Associated Press article. "See what kind of pitcher I am in 2012."

He is talking about the Major Leagues when he says "here," but that is his competitive spirit coming out.  He admits the work is not done.  He admits he need to go into the offseason healthy and come back strong in 2012.  Why are the Nationals, who are currently 25 games back of the Phillies, bringing Strasburg up?

There's one simple answer to that question.  To sell tickets. 

I don't dispute the fact that Strasburg needs more work to get back to 100%.  He does need to face Major League hitters.  But he doesn't need to face them now.  The Minor League season is coming to a close and I fully understand that Strasburg will not have the opportunity to pitch until the Fall, but that seems like a far less risky proposition than throwing him out on the mound in front of a sold out crowd at Nationals Park. 

Sure the proponents of doing so will say, "he's needs the work," and "what's the difference between pitching now and pitching in the Fall?"  Those in favor of seeing Strasburg because he is amazing and they want a story to tell their kids and grandkids, fine.  Those in the front office looking for a final boost in attendance should think twice.

Strasburg can participate in the Arizona Fall League after the Major League season is over.  This has two benefits.  It gives him some rest between his final rehab start and the start of the Fall League season.  And it also keeps him from pushing his intensity level farther than it needs to go.  When Strasburg hits the Major League mound, everything matters again.  If he gets shelled in a Minor League rehab start, who care?  If he gets shelled in any of his Major League starts this year, the questions start.

Is he fully recovered?  Did he lose his touch?  Will he be able to return in 2012 and be anywhere close to his 2010 self?

These are questions no athlete wants to face, especially a young one.  So, Strasburg will be trying harder.  He will be focused on making perfect pitches and throwing harder.  He wants to be that same pitcher who struck out 14 in his debut.  He wants that to happen immediately.  No matter what is said in interviews about taking his time and making sure things are done right, this is still a 23 year old kid who wants to dominate with the big boys again. 

So he will push himself.  With him coming off surgery like he has, with him missing a full season of baseball when you combine the end of 2010 and this season, the risk is high.  It seems there are just as many pitchers who have succeeded after Tommy John surgery as there have been ones who failed. 

The risk is high.  The reward is low. 

All of this could be over-protective, paranoid fear on my part.  But I'd rather be over-protective and paranoid of a pitcher like Strasburg than watch him blow out a shoulder or an elbow because he is trying to go too hard too fast.  I want to see him pitch for years to come.  I want to see the strike-outs pile up and the Cy Young awards roll in.  I want to see him paired up with Bryce Harper and leading the Nationals toward the play-offs.  I want him to have a long, healthy career.

Ticket sales are nice, but are two sell-outs in September worth the risk of permanently damaging a great young pitcher?  Ask Kerry Wood or Mark Prior.

While thinking about Stephen Strasburg's injury, I began thinking of other pitchers who sustained injury or other medical conditions that cut their careers short. The top five I came up with were:

1) Mark Prior
2) Kerry Wood
3) Jim Maloney
4) Smoky Joe Wood
5) Sandy Koufax

1) Prior's injuries began in 2005, and by the end of the year, his career was all but over. A look at his numbers through the 2005 season reveals a dominant pitcher. He was 40-21 with an ERA of 3.09. In his most dominant campaign, he went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA and 245 strikeouts. For his career, he compiled a surprising 13.1 WAR in just a few short seasons. There is no accurate way to predict how good Prior could have been if injuries hadn't wrecked his career. However, at only 25 when his career essentially ended, it's probably a safe bet that he would have made many more All-Star appearances and competed for multiple Cy Young awards.

2) Kerry Wood was one of the most dominant young pitchers in history, much like Strasburg has shown to be so far. With 233 strikeouts in only 166.2 innings pitched, Wood made himself known in 1998. Then there was the 20 strikeout performance. Yet, Wood's career was significantly derailed in 1999 when he underwent elbow surgery. He was never the same. While Wood has still had a long, relatively successful career, he could have been legendary. With a ridiculous 12.58 K/9 ratio, a K% of 33.3, and A FIP of 3.16 in 1998, Wood could have been one of the best strikeout pitchers of all-time. Instead, he struggled through six more seasons of starting before finding a home in the bullpen.

3) Jim Maloney never had a chance to throw for The Big Red Machine during the 1970's. His time with the Reds was concentrated to the 1960's and he was dominant. From 1960-1970, Maloney had 74 complete games and 30 shut-outs. He threw two no-hitters and struck out 200 or more batters four times. Unfortunately, Maloney severed his Achilles tendon early in 1970 and was never able to fully recover. He only pitched one more season before hanging them up at 31 years old. Had Maloney stayed healthy it is easy to picture the Reds winning more titles than they already did. Maloney would have only been 32 and at the height of his career during the 1972 season. His blazing fastball, stamina, and guts surely would have helped the Reds and probably would have landed Maloney in the Hall of Fame.

4) Smoky Joe Wood's career was cut short by foot and ankle injuries. He continued to pitch as long as his lower legs would hold up, but peaked in 1912. Ty Cobb called him one of the best pitchers he ever faced. And he could have been better. Wood won 34 games in 1912, finished his career with 121 career complete games, and a 2.03 career ERA. Yet, he wasn't able to start more than 18 games after the 1912 season. His ERA+ was 146 and he absolutely baffled hitters. Injuries probably kept him from being a 250-300 game winner and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

5) Sandy Koufax, unlike Jim Maloney and Smoky Joe, overcame his injury shortened career and is enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Had it not been for arthritis and injuries, though, Koufax could have been the greatest of all-time. He threw four no-hitters, including one perfect game. He has a career ERA of 2.67 and an ERA+ of 136. He won three Cy Young awards, and he struck out 2,396 batters. All this was accomplished by the age of 30. Had it not been for injury, and accounting for a likely reduction in production as he aged, Koufax could have struck out 4,000 batters, could have won 300 games, and could have piled up even more no-hitters and Cy Young awards.

There are countless stories of pitchers whose careers were cut short by injury. We will never know what could have been, but with these five players, their early career results speak for themselves.