The 5.5 Hole

Prince Fielder confirmed Wednesday night that this year would likely be his last with Milwaukee.  It seems that no matter how much of a bump in payroll the Brewers see next year after this powerful run they've had in 2011 will not be enough to re-sign Fielder in 2012.  Fielder will command lucrative offers from multiple sources such as the Cubs, Cardinals (if Pujols doesn't resign), the Yankees (mostly for DH duty), and the Angels.  So, the Brewers will be left with a gaping hole in their offense.

With the Brewers firmly in control of first place and the play-offs on the horizon, some may say it's too early to examine potential replacements at first base.  But I say, the sooner the better.  After Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Mark Teixeira there is a severe drop-off in offensive talent at first base. Let's look at what's out there, realistic or not:

Lance Berkman:
Currently not classified as a first baseman, Berkman looks to have many potential offers in the off-season including those from the Cardinals.  If the Cardinals can't resign Pujols, Berkman would be the logical, in-house, replacement.  Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they can't offer Berkman a contract extension with hopes of him playing first base until they know for sure they're going to lose Pujols.  This leaves a big opening for the Brewers.  Berkman is making $8 million this season and has posted one of his best years ever.  They will likely have to pay Berkman a little more to land him, or give him a multi-year deal. 

Berkman's triple slash is impressive, .290/.404/.551, and his wRC+ ranks among one of his career bests at 157.  His 4.1 WAR is only 0.3 less than Fielder's, so the Brewers wouldn't be losing much there. 

Carlos Pena:
As a major flop for the Chicago Cubs, Pena will likely have to take a large pay-cut in 2012.  The Brewers may be able to throw a multi-year deal his way and land him at a discount.  By no means should they sign Pena to a long-term deal, but a two or three year deal might be enticing enough for Pena to take $6 million a year or less.

He's not horrible on offense, but his 2.5 WAR this season is nothing to write home about.  He did post decent numbers with OBP (.358) and slugging (.472) and he can still club a home run or two (27), so the Brewers would not be making a huge mistake if they can sign him at a rate much lower than the Cubs did.

Outside of these two players, the production levels for players realistically available drops off the table.  The Brewers may have to look to the farm to replace Fielder:

Mat Gamel:
In 128 games at AAA this season, he hit .310/.372/.540 and clubbed 28 home runs.  His wOBP was .391.  Each of the previous four years, including this season, Gamel has been called up to get some Major League action.  He has performed relatively well in limited action.  Over the course of those four call-ups, he has had 194 plate appearances and carried a .222/.309/.374 triple-slash.  His WAR shows an exactly replacement level player (0.0), but with more time, he could develop into a player the Brewers can lock-up long-term. 

At league minimum, he may be worth a shot. 


These are three players out of many first basemen that the Brewers can pursue.  However, after Carlos Pena, there are only two first basemen who have posted a WAR above 2 this season.  Slim pickins for the Brewers this off-season.  But with early offers and smart offers, the Brewers may be able to land Berkman or Pena.  If not, they should give Gamel a look. 

I'll still talk about it. I'll still write about it. I'll even still use it to analyze players. But by itself, batting average is as close to useless a stat as you can get. On-base percentage shows everything batting average shows and more.

It's easy to look at a player with a batting average over .300 and think he's a good player. It's simple to just take that stat and assume that hitter can contribute. Yet, succeeding at the plate (success in this case means getting a hit) 30% of the time is impressive only if that player is also getting on base in other ways. Let's take a look at some of the league leaders in batting average verse some of the leaders in on-base percentage. Only players with at least 300 plate appearances will be considered.

Top 5 in batting average:

Adrian Gonzalez .345
Michael Young .336
Jose Reyes .336
Ryan Braun .334
Miguel Cabrera .328

Top 5 in OBP:

Jose Bautista .453
Joey Votto .438
Miguel Cabrera .432
Prince Fielder .409
Adrian Gonzalez .406

There's a bit of variation here, but we still see two of the same players we saw on the BA list. Let's break this down further.

The league average for BA and OBP are .255 and .320 respectively. There are currently 19 players who are at .255 or lower in batting average but higher than .320 in OBP. Conversely, there 14 players whose BA is at or above league average but have an OBP lower than league average.

Let's take this analysis deeper, to a specific player level. Prince Fielder is hitting .295, which is nothing to ignore and a very nice average. But it's only 15.7% higher than the league average. I'd be willing to bet a quick salary check reveals Fielder's pay to be more than 15.7% higher than league average, so hopefully he's contributing elsewhere. And he is. In home runs and OBP. His .409 OBP ranks him 27.8% better than league average.

Below are three other players whose BA's wouldn't suggest they are much more special than average but their OBP's do:

Lance Berkman: .289 BA (13.3% better than average)/.405 OBP (26.5% better than average)

Nick Swisher: .267 BA (4.7% better than average)/.383 OBP (19.7% better than average)

Kevin Youkalis: .266 BA (4.3% better than average)/.380 OBP (18.8% better than average)

Finally, there are more players with a higher than average OBP than there are players with a higher than average BA. There is quite a bit of talent out there being undervalued because of batting average alone.

Many articles have touched on BA vs. OBP, and it seems increasingly clear that batting average means far less than OBP. So as I continue to hypocritically analyze players based on batting average and be awed by players hitting for a high average, remember OBP means so much more.