The 5.5 Hole

With the release of Moneyball over the weekend, talk of baseball's financial system are sure to pop back up. Many will make the argument that without a salary cap, baseball cannot have a competitive balance. However, history seems to prove this theory wrong. We'll take a look year-by-year and overall for the last ten seasons.

YEAR-BY-YEAR

Let's start by a year-by-year analysis for the last ten seasons.

2002: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants.

2003: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, Giants, Marlins.

Three new teams

2004: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Astros.

Four new teams

2005: Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Astros.

Two new teams

2006: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Tigers, Mets, Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers.

Five new teams

2007: Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies.

Seven new teams

2008: Rays, White Sox, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Brewers.

Four new teams

2009: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies.

Four new teams

2010: Yankees, Twins, Rangers, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Reds, Giants.

Five new teams

2011 (Currently): Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Braves.

Four new teams

The average number of new teams in the postseason year to year is 4.22. Round that down to four and 50% of play-off teams change each year.

LAST TEN SEASONS

Over the last ten seasons, 24 different teams have made the postseason. With 30 teams, this means only six did not make the play-offs in the last ten years.

The Royals, Pirates, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, and Nationals/Expos are the only teams not to make the play-offs in that time. And even the Mariners made the postseason in 2001.

The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies have made the most postseasons in the last ten years, but if we are talking parity, the fact that 24 teams have made the play-offs is the bottom line.


I do not dispute the financial inequities in baseball, but baseball's competitive balance is no different than other sports leagues. With a good general manager and manager, teams can compete regardless of payroll. These teams may not make multiple postseasons, but they continue to make it interesting. In another five years, we may see teams like the Pirates, Nationals, and Royals making the play-offs.

Parity is alive and well in baseball.

Last night, 120 grown men and a handful of their coaches transformed into something usually reserved for Little League. These men became jubilant little boys with smiles a mile wide. They jumped and shouted, cheered and clapped. They donned championship shirts and caps, and they took celebratory dips in the pool. The daily grind of playing 162 games slipped away for a night, and these men became the boys they once were, more concerned about celebrating with their friends than multi-million dollar contracts.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewera, and Texas Rangers all clinched division titles last night. Each of them did it at home and were given the opportunity to celebrate with their fans. The Diamondbacks ran around the infield and dog-piled J.J. Putz, then took a trip to the outfield pool. The Rangers sat on the field after their win and watched, with many of the night's fans still in attendance, the Angels lose to the Athletics giving the Rangers the division. The Brewers left little doubt about their division title with monster home runs and great defensive plays. They all experienced the joy that only baseball can bring.

The Diamondbacks, Brewers, and the Rangers joined the Yankees, Phillies, and Tigers as division champs for 2011. Let's take a look at how these three newest entries to the 2011 postseason did it.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

There were two men specifically responsible for the Dbacks success this season, and neither of them played a single game. Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers have changed the culture of this team and helped build the chemistry necessary for success. Kirk Gibson's no-nonsense approach and his championship pedigree made him instantly credible in the clubhouse. His leadership has brought a group of relatively dysfunctional players together. Kevin Towers has continued his tradition of making the most of his trades and signings. He may go down in history as a genius with his Kelly Johnson for Aaron Hill move. Everyone, myself included, thought that was a bad move, but Towers saw something in Hill that none of us could see.

Justin Upton has finally lived up to his potential and is having an MVP caliber season. Maybe it's the comfort he feels with this team. Maybe it's the fact that he isn't the only one expected to produce. Whatever the case, Upton has put all of his talents to use this season and carried the Diamondbacks offensively.

Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson have provided a one-two punch the Diamondbacks haven't seen since Johnson and Schilling led them to the World Series. Kennedy quietly put together a Cy Young caliber season, and Daniel Hudson is continuing to improve as a Diamondback.

Milwaukee Brewers:

Two words: Braun and Fielder. Ryan Braun will likely win the National League MVP, and Fielder is having -well- a Fielder-like season. The Brewers have been together long enough to have multiple veterans leading the team. They've improved their pitching quite a bit since their last play-off appearance, and they are hungry for success.

Zach Greinke has been unstoppable at home, which is part of why the Brewers have also been unstoppable at home. With the best home record in baseball, the Brewers have made it look easy. As they battle with Arizona for home-field advantage during the first round, each game remains increasingly important to a team who doesn't lose at home.

Texas Rangers:

Nolan Ryan has infused new life into this ball club since taking over ownership. With a combination a new pitching philosophies and power hitting, the Ranger have made themselves a force to be reckoned with. Like many great teams before them, much of the Rangers' pitching value comes from a shutdown bullpen. Neftali Feliz, Koji Uehara, Darren Oliver, Mike Adams, and just about anyone else that trots out from that bullpen has been lights out this season.

Then there's the offense. Josh Hamilton has been healthy all of September unlike last season which should give him some confidence and momentum heading into the postseason. He has helped the Ranger widen the gap this month and take the division away from the Angels last night. Nelson Cruz has battled injuries this year, but when healthy has been as good as he always has been. Adrian Beltre has slowly been worked back into the line up after injury, but is already contributing. Beltre's power gives the Rangers another boost that can only help them as they enter the postseason.

All year long, the Rangers have had one of the most potent offenses in the league. Mike Napoli, who is playing out of his mind, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Young, Kinsler. There is not an easy outin this line up. That's why they are back-to-back division champions in the AL West.



Soak in the joy of a division crown boys, but don't linger too long in celebration because there's still work to be done by all of you

Tampa Bay is trying to pull off a feat as improbable as the Colorado Rockies run in 2007.  Maybe as improbable as the '51 Giants in the fact that they are doing this in the American League East, the toughest division in baseball.  They're not there yet, but the Rays are now just 5.5 games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card with 19 games to play.  They're only 5 games back in the loss column. 

These teams play two more games at the Trop this weekend, then face off at Fenway in a four-game series at the end of next week.  Depending on whether the Red Sox can bounce back from injuries and poor pitching performances, they may find themselves on the receiving end of a comeback for the ages. 

On August 1, 2011 the Rays found themselves 9 games back of the Wild Card behind the Yankees and the Angels.  Since that date, they have gone 23-13.  They're 15 games above .500 and hold a (slightly) better record than the Angels who are in a much better position for a postseason appearance.  While 5.5 games back with 19 games to go is not an enviable position, it's a better position than the Rays were in on September 1st.  They were 8.5 games back with just 24 to play.  All but out of the play-off picture much like the White Sox, Indians, and Giants are now.  But now, they're back in it.  They've delayed the discussions of what is sure to be another off-season of "rebuilding" and firmly planted themselves in the play-off discussions instead.

What makes this feat even more remarkable is where this team was at the end of the 2010 season.  Almost a year ago today, on September 22, 2010, Rays owner Stuart Stenberg all but declared the death of competitive baseball in Tampa Bay. He told reporters the Rays would be cutting payroll no matter what.  Not an encouraging sign for a team on its way to another postseason berth and a fan base hoping a deep run would bolster the team's finances.  He said the team would cut payroll in the off-season by $22 million at least, maybe more.  We won't have an accurate picture of what the Rays spent in 2011 until after the season concludes, but it sure looks like a team with a $50 million payroll rather than a $72 million payroll.  But they're still winning.  In the American League East. 

Surprisingly, the Rays have managed to compete with offense and fielding more than pitching.  Sure they have "Complete Game"' Shields and David Price, but outside of those two pitchers, the rotation is not very good.  Shields and Price have combined for 9.5 WAR this season.  The other three starters have combined for only 4.3 WAR (According to Fangraphs). But they've made up for it on offense.  They're offensive WAR of 24.5 ranks them only behind the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers.  They've stole the third most bases in the American League and have the third best success rate for stolen bases.  They're 41.8 Ultimate Zone rating ranks them only behind the Red Sox in the A.L., and they're DRS (defensive runs saved) rating of 61 ranks them number one.

The Tampa Bay Rays have defied expectations, shed payroll, and continued to compete in a division full of offensive juggernauts like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays.  They may not be able to get over the hump and take the Wild Card, but they've given themselves a decent shot.  With the Red Sox struggles and the Rays surge, I wouldn't be surprised to see this race come down to the final week.

For the entire second half of the season we've been looking for play-off races.  Now we have two; the Rangers and Angels, and the Red Sox and Rays.

What is the reward for pledging yourself to a team that plays more losing ball than good?  Heartache maybe?  Frustration?  Anger?

All might be good descriptions of the emotions felt by many Padres fans, but I feel something else.  Pride.  To live and die with a team that is more apt to lose 90 games than win 90 takes patience and heart.  To suffer through the years of play-off drought takes dedication.  And to live and breath the success takes nothing but an acknowledgement that you were there all along.

After digging out from losing season after losing season, I got my first taste of Padres success in 1998.  I watched that team come dangerously close to winning 100 games.  I watched Andy Ashby throw a 75-pitch complete game.  I watched Greg Vaughn slug 50 home runs.  And through it all, I imagined the feeling was much more special than say a Yankees fan feels watching his team win, night in and night out.  When you've been deprived of something so long, you savor it to the fullest when it is reached.  After years without sunshine, a man wouldn't complain about the heat on a beautiful summer day.  After weeks without water, a dehydrated person doesn't take the water and ask for lemon.  And after years without winning, a Padres fan doesn't take it for granted.

The Padres made it all the way to the World Series in 1998 only to be swept by the (damn) Yankees.  I found myself bearing witness to my first fire sale as a Padres fan after that season, and I had to wait seven long years to taste the thirst quenching beauty of play-off baseball again.

I can remember being glued to the TV screen every game of the 2005 season, wondering if it was all going to fall apart, wondering if some team would step up, knock the Padres off their perch, and reclaim their place as rightful N.L. West Champions.  But it didn't happen.  The Padres worked a tepid 82-80 record to a division crown, and I loved every second of it.  I relished every win, every play, and every second.  I bought my play-off tickets the minute they went on sale, and cheered down to the final out.  The whole time, I soaked in the moments.  Standing outside Petco Park before the very first play-off game ever played in that stadium was magical.  The frenzy of the fans around me was palpable.  The Padres were swept, but it didn't matter.  They had shown signs of success and rewarded my faith with a play-off berth.

The 2006 season saw the Padres post back-to-back division titles for the first time in team history, and I was back at the park for games one and two, both losses.  I spent the entire season not sure I was watching the same club I had grown to know and love.  This was a decent team that could clearly compete.  As they reached the stretch run of the season, I felt my heart beating in my throat every second of every play.  I felt the sweat at the tips of my fingertips, the anticipation building with every out.  I felt the joys of the wins and the pains of the losses, and I loved every bit of it.

With two winning seasons under their belts, I came into the 2007 season expecting success.  Not necessarily a division win, but I expected a competitive team.  And that's what I got.  As the season drew on, it became obvious the Padres were not going to win the division, but the Wild Card looked to be within their sights.  Yet, I watched as the Padres squandered a two game lead in the Wild Card standings with two to play.  And then I watched the most amazing, heartbreaking game I've ever seen in my life.

Trailing 6-5 in the top of the 8th, the Padres managed a run to tie the game.  It went into to extra innings and I remember watching the game in the bedroom of my rented house.  My roommates were focused on other things like drinking beer and chasing girls.  I was focused on every pitch, swing, hit, and run.  In the top of the 13th, Scott Hairston blasted a no-doubter of a home run and I was off my feet leaping for joy before the ball even made it to the stands.  Trevor Hoffman in the bullpen, a two-run lead, game over.  The goosebumps on my arms felt like they were literally going to blast off my skin and dance around the room with me.

Then the bottom of the 13th happened.  Trevor came in, got one out, gave up three hits and one walk, and allowed the Rockies to score 3 and win the game.  Like it was yesterday, I can still feel the pain of that game in my gut.  I fell to my knees when the winning run scored.  I lowered my head, and I felt like I was going to throw up.  It took hours for me to fall asleep that night and the depression carried over to the next day.  The pain I felt lasted long into the play-offs that year as I watched the Rockies march their way to a World Series berth.

But I can't help but feel that passion and heartache and joy and pain came only because I had endured.  I had endured the losses, endured the fire sales, endured the "small-market" tag, and endured the payroll constraints.  My dedication and continued belief in a team that loses more than it wins allows me to appreciate the good things that much more.

So I think about this nearly unbearable season and the impending trade of Heath Bell, and I remember it was just last year that the Padres again flashed brilliance and rewarded my faith with their first 90-win season since 1998.  I can struggle through this year's season with the belief and understanding that success will come again.  I don't know when that will be, but I know it will come.