The 5.5 Hole

While the world (myself included) focuses on the Rays and their pursuit of the Red Sox, the Cardinals and Giants have made things very interesting in the National League. The Braves, much like the Red Sox have struggled to win in September. Since September 1st, Atlanta has gone 7-11, and their road doesn't get much easier with only the last three games of the season (against the Phillies no less) at home. That leaves six straight road games though. So let's look at both the Cardinals' and Giants' roads the rest of the way.

St. Louis:

The Cardinals have 10 games left and sit 3.5 back of the Braves. Six of those games are at home, and all but tonight's game against the Phillies are against sub-.500 teams.

With Chris Carpenter pitching like his former Cy Young self, Albert Pujols being Albert Pujols, and a top flight offense like the Cardinals have, the Braves may need to start panicking.

San Francisco:

All but dead a couple weeks ago, the Giants have resurrected themselves. All the sudden, the Giants find themselves just four back of the Braves. Most of the momentum is coming from the Kung-Fu Panda himself, Pablo Sandoval. After an up and down season, Sandoval is mashing the ball and even got himself a cycle at the end of last week. The Giants have a tough hill to climb though. Six of their last nine games are on the road, with three of those games at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks.

The Giants will need to rely on their pitching like they did in 2010. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgardner will have to carry this team if they want to return to the postseason.

The last 10 games of the season should be terrific baseball. With multiple races, each game feels like October already.

You probably haven't noticed him. He's probably slipped past your radar. His success doesn't matter to you. He plays for the San Diego Padres, a team that has (at the time of this article) lost nine straight games. He is Jesus Guzman, and his career is fascinating.

Guzman was drafted by the Mariners in 2000 as a Venezuelan teen. In 2004, he came to the states and played high-A ball in the Mariners organization before being promoted to AA. After two successful seasons there, he was dumped back down to single-A. The next season, he found himself traded to the Athletics organization. Guzman progressed through AA, AAA, and the rookie league that season then, in 2009 was sent across the Bay to San Francisco. Finally, after six seasons in the Minor Leagues, Guzman made it to the show. In limited action, 12 games to be exact, he was unimpressive and sent back to AAA. The Giants outrighted him to AAA for good in 2010 so he was free to sign elsewhere. Which he did. In November of 2010, Guzman signed with the Padres. By midway through 2011, he was part of the big league club.

But that's just the background to his story. The true story is that of a successful Minor Leaguer who was never really given a shot in the big leagues. This is a story of a player who saw action in 756 Minor League games, came to the plate 3,326 times, and posted a career Minor League triple slash of .305/.373/.480. Guzman's is the strange story of successful ball player with nowhere to play.

Teams seemed to be afraid of his defense. They placed less value on him as a player because of his .949 career Minor League fielding percentage. They all failed to realize his offense overcame his defense. They all failed to place the right value on him, and they let him wallow in the Minor Leagues his entire career. But the Padres saw something else.

The Padres saw a player with a high on-base percentage and a 1.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio. They brought him up to the Show this season and all Guzman has done is rake. He is currently hitting .326/.379/.516. In only 206 plate appearances this season, Guzman has accounted for 15 Runs Above Replacement and can boast a 1.6 WAR.

To make things better for the Padres, Guzman is working on a Minor League contract. They have a chance to lock up Cameron Maybin and Jesus Guzman to long-term deals. Guzman, when valued properly, is the type of player you can build a team around. He is a bright spot in a dark lonely season mostly spent in the cellar.

I wrote a three-part series earlier this year outlining my opinion on what baseball needs to do to increase its popularity. In the first part I explored attendance figure and concluded that totals have held pretty steady. Well forget the numbers. If you open a newspaper, go online, or flip on the television it seems doomsdayers are pointing to the fans' complete abandonment of baseball. They will show you pictures of empty ball parks. They will pick and choose teams, citing all-time lows in attendance. They will pull out the smoke and mirrors, and they may even ask Chris Angel to freak your mind.

The fact is, as pointed out in a completely unrelated Sports Illustrated article, average attendance league-wide is down just 14 fans. 14! Since last year how many more people have lost jobs? How many have taken pay cuts? And baseball has only lost an average of 14 fans per game.

If we were to just look at the teams struggling in attendance, of course we will see a problem. But what about the other teams? What about Pittsburgh who, until last month, was drawing more fans on average than they have in a decade. They've had more sell-outs this season than they have since the 90's. What about San Francisco? As of August 10th they had sold out 60 consecutive home games. What about Boston? You'd have to damn near hit the lottery to afford a scalped ticket to the constantly sold-out Fenway Park. How about St. Louis or Minnesota? Or the Angels and Rangers?

It's popular to believe baseball is dying. It's trendy to throw certain teams' attendance figures around as proof of the sport's decline. But popularity and trends are rarely built on honest fact. Think for yourself, do the research, and know that while it's not the most popular sport, baseball is surviving a terrible economy just fine.

Words are the most powerful force on earth. They have the ability to incite fist fights, break up marriages, and start wars. They can heal wounds, lift spirits, and unite. They can also tear down the growth earned over generations of education.

According to ESPN.com, a Philadelphia radio show host named Tony Bruno called Giants reliever Ramon Ramirez an "illegal alien" in response to his pitch that hit the Phillies' Shane Victorino. Bruno took to Twitter and said, "Bochy is a coward for having his illegal alien pitcher hit a guy." The tweet went on, but Bruno quickly removed the post and apologized.

Unfortunately, the damage was done. The send button is permanent. No matter how quickly something is deleted, the information is out there and the knowledge of the comment lives on. In a professional capacity, there is no room for insults. In a sports media capacity there is no room for insults. In this country, there is no room for racism.

Bruno can down play the comment. He can hide behind excuses like "emotion" or "passion." He can fend off the headhunters calling for his job. But he can't go back and change his remark.

It's rare that a public figure keep his or her job after a comment like that, but he might. It's rare to continue on like nothing ever happened, but he might. Yet, no matter what happens, his words will be forever colored. They will be forever darkened and scrutinized.

Tony Bruno's racist remark may not cost him his job, but hopefully it cost him the respect of his listeners.

The Yankees and Red Sox entered last night's contest in a perfect tie.  Winning percentage, wins, losses.  On August 5th, this should have been one of the biggest (if not the biggest) series of the regular season.  The nation should have been glued to their TV screen whether they loved or hated either team.  The President himself should have been peaking in or getting game updates from Secret Service.

Instead, the series doesn't matter.  The Yankees won last night and took a one game lead entering Saturday.  Barring a miraculous come-back from the Angels or the Rays, both the Yankees and the Red Sox are locks for the postseason.  So what does this series actually mean, besides another chance for ESPN to flex its love of "The Rivarly?"

Let's end the season right now and take a look at the match-ups:

The Yankees would win the East and would face off with Detroit in the Division Series.
Boston would take the Wild Card and would travel to Texas.

Now, let's flip this and say the Red Sox win the next two games, then end the season there:

The Red Sox would win the East and would host the Tigers.
The Yankees would win the Wild Card and take on Texas in Arlington.

So, essentially what this series decides is who travels to Texas and who hosts Detroit.  For many Yankees fans, that could be a big deal.  Just look at what happened last season when New York took on Texas.  However, in the overall play-off picture both New York and Boston will have the two best records at the close of the season.  They both have better teams than Detroit, and probably have better teams than Texas.

The rivalry this year isn't about making the postseason, it's about play-off scenarios.  For that reason, the play-off structure needs to change.  Talks of adding another Wild Card team are great, but there needs to be a better reward for winning the division.  This isn't a new discussion by any means, but it seems to be magnified in this "larger than life" series between the two titans of the American League East.

Many people are arguing for a one-game play-off between the two Wild Card teams (assuming the League does add another Wild Card in each league).  In this scenario teams would hopefully battle more for the division title rather than settling for the Wild Card.  No one wants to play a one-game series.  However, even a three-game series would lead teams down the right path of competition.  Look at the College World Series.  A three game series barely gauges the talent on the field and allows for flukes.  No team entering the play-offs wants to be knocked out by a fluke.

Yankees and Red Sox fans can occupy themselves this weekend with their nationally-televised rivalry of little consequence.  In the mean time, I will be paying attention to the race between the Diamondbacks and the Giants, the race between the Indians and the Tigers, and the race between the Angels and Rangers.

Bruce Bochy's head is enormous. He wears a cap size larger than an 8. That's big. But he's carrying a lot of baseball knowledge under that cap, so it's fair.

Since becoming a manager, Bochy has compiled a near-.500 record at 1336-1349. Early next season, he should eclipse the .500 mark with the Giants. This begs the question, what separates Bochy's career with San Diego and his career with San Francisco?

Bochy is 24 games under .500 for his career with the Padres, but 11 games over with the Giants. He is a baseball guy and a great strategist, but perhaps he was being held back in San Diego. Let's take a look at payroll figures for Bochy's tenure in San Diego compared to San Francisco.

1995 Padres - $25,962,334
1996 Padres - $27,814,172*
1997 Padres - $36,401,672
1998 Padres - $46,110,500**
1999 Padres - $40,801,513
2000 Padres - $40,099,333
2001 Padres - $38,702,833
2002 Padres - $33,055,000
2003 Padres - $33,610,000
2004 Padres - $51,534,833***
2005 Padres - $57,073,833*
2006 Padres - $64,396,141*


Now let's look at the Giants:

2007 Giants - $80,352,837
2008 Giants - $70,934,000
2009 Giants - $77,063,700***
2010 Giants - $98,186,333**


* Division Title (the Giants are currently in 1st place this season)
**NL Pennant (note: the Giants went on to win the World Series in 2010)
***Winning Season

Bochy was given an average salary of $41,296,597 in San Diego. And as shown by his NL Pennant year and final three winning seasons, a little bit larger payroll allowed him to navigate the team to success.

So far in San Francisco, Bochy has been allowed an average salary of $81,634,218. Almost double his average payroll with the Padres.

I've always been a proponent of playing small ball, building around defense and pitching, and infusing youth into the lineup. I've always felt that with the right combination, payroll should not matter much. However, there are certain barriers to success, and an absurdly low payroll is one of them.

Bruce Bochy has proven he is a good manager. To spend 12 seasons in San Diego with an average payroll hovering around $41 million, and to still only finish 24 games under .500 is impressive. Imagine what he could have done with an average payroll of $50 million. We will never know, but we get to watch his mind at work with less limitations and more freedom now in San Francisco. As the only manager in San Francisco history to win a World Series, I think he's proven spending a little more money works when you have the right skipper.

Every year around this time there's a run on boxes and packing tape. As teams in the hunt wheel and deal with those shedding payroll, the moving industry gets a temporary bump. With less than 24 hours left before the non-waiver deadline, I'll examine the winners and losers so far.

Let's take a look at the winners and losers, top to bottom:

1) Giants. Carlos Beltran provides a much needed bump to the San Francisco offense. For more tha half the year, they have relied on their pitching staff to carry them along in a mild National League West. With this move, they prove their plan is repeat or bust. No longer satisfied with coasting along, the Giants almost instantly put distance between themselves and the Diamondbacks.

2) Indians. By picking up Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland looks to secure a positive run differential in the American League Central. With the White Sox as the only team giving up less runs than they score (barely), it was clear that the Indians needed pitching help if they were going to continued to compete.

3) Pirates. Just announced, the Pirates pulled of a deal for a sweet swinging left handed bat in Derek Lee. While Lee's numbers have clearly been on the decline, he should see a minor statistical resurgence playing at PNC Park the rest of the season. The park plays smaller than Camden and should allow Lee to help the Pirates challenge for the division crown. More importantly, it signals to Pirates fans that this team is actually in it to win, not just to create the warm and fuzzy feel good story of its first winning season in 18 years.

4) Phillies. Hunter Pence should help Philly in two important areas; Offense and youth. The Phillies should have control over Pence for the next two years without even having to work a new deal. They get a proven contact hitter with a little pop, and they get some youth infused into an ever-increasingly older team. Already the clear National League favorite, the Phillies may be able to force the Braves to forget about a division win and focus on the Wild Card.

5) Red Sox. Rich Harden should help, but probably not enough to justify the trade. This move feels like a move made simply for the sake of the trade deadline. Over his career, Harden has proven himself successful, but he is injury prone. The Red Sox should do fine with this deal, but most likely could have done fine without it.

6) Diamondbacks. Already 3 games back in the division, the Dbacks were faced with the prospect of dealing with the Giants AND Carlos Beltran the rest of the season. Their counter-move? Trading for Jason Marquis. Arizona gave up a 21 year old prospect for a 33 year old pitcher with only 7 wins more than he has loses. Marquis is a decent player, but in comparison to the Beltran deal, it's like a boxer countering an upper-cut with a weak side jab.

7) Yankees. They will likely take the Wild Card, but by standing idly by, they seem to be willing to allow the Red Sox to take the division. New York is a good team that could have been better. With such a head start earlier in the season over a struggling Sox team, it would seem the Yankees would dread giving up not only the division lead but the eventual crown. Yet, their lack of action during the trade season would indicate otherwise.

There will probably be more trades to come, but based on what we know so far, these are the winners and losers. Now, it's the time for teams to take these puzzle pieces, put them in place, and charge toward the finish line. Races will intensify, rivalries will renew, and the play-offs will take center-stage.

Already working to extend their current 3.5 game lead in the terribly uncompetitive National League West, the Giants may have just delivered the knock out blow.  After Carlos Beltran agreed to waive his no trade clause, the Mets shipped him off to the Giants for a Minor League starter with an ERA hovering near 4.00 and a $2.5 million salary dump. 

Beltran is in the final year of his contract and will likely become a free-agent next season unless the Giants re-work the deal (unlikely).  However, the contract probably doesn't matter much to San Francisco right now.  This looks to be a 3-month rental trade for the play-off push.

And it's the smartest move they could have made.  Aaron Rowand, who will most-likely be going to the bench to make room for Beltran, has been a serviceable Major League outfielder throughout his career.  However, he is sitting on a .244 average with 4 home runs and 20 RBI's.  Beltran on the other hand is hitting .289 with 15 home runs and 66 RBI's. The adjustment shouldn't be too tough for Beltran either.  The Mets' Citi Field play similar to AT&T Park in San Francisco. 

For 3 months and $4 million, the Giants have acquired a player with 60.9 WAR for his career, 616.5 RAR (Runs Above Replacement), and a career walk-to-strikout ratio of 1.38.  After losing Buster Posey for the year, Freddy Sanchez for a good chunk, and dealing with an anemic offense, the Giants may have just moved themselves from World Series hopeful to legitimate World Series contender.

As for the team in their rear-view, the Diamondbacks sat idly by while their competition got better.  Stephen Drew is lost for the season, their bullpen is showing signs of reverting back to last year's travesty, and their offense is inconsistent.  Without a big move before the deadline (and really who's out there?), there is little chance of the Dbacks catching the Giants.

Carlos Beltran may only be a rental, but he is a Lamborghini-type rental, rented by a teenager during spring break to pick up girls. 

Stephen Drew literally had to flop his fractured ankle back into place while writhing around on the ground by home plate, and I couldn't help but think in that moment, the Giants just won the division. 

In an attempted feet-first slide into home plate, Drew's right ankle bent a way that ankles are not supposed to bend.  It was obvious the second it happened, he would be done for the season.  The news was confirmed after the game, and the loss means so much more than just replacing a short-stop on the surprisingly competitive Diamondbacks roster. 

Stephen Drew, through 86 games, was batting .252 with a .317 on-base percentage.  He had 5 home runs, 45 RBI's, and 44 runs scored.  His average ranked him 7th among starting shortstops in the National League.  His OBP ranked him 8th.  No, Drew was not an offensive juggernaut, but he carried the weight of that team on his shoulders and provided so much more than the box score can ever show.

Like Matt Williams during his days with the Giants and later the Diamondbacks, Stephen Drew just quietly went about his business. He wasn't a showboat, he didn't complain. Simply, he was and is a professional. And he is the consummate teammate.

Any questions about how well-liked he is in the clubhouse could be put to bed just by looking at the Dbacks dugout anytime they were up to bat after Drew's injury. Any chance the players got, they were down in the trainer's room, checking on Drew.

Even with his injury, Drew can provide support from the bench, but it's not the same as the leadership he provides out on the field, as the captain of the infield. Without him out there, the Diamondbacks are going to struggle. His business-like approach kept players grounded. He acted as a glue for clubhouse morale. When a player like him goes down, it affects everyone.

Now, the Giants have their opportunity to create some distance. They lost their star player earlier in the year, but Buster Posey was not yet a leader. Stephen Drew on the other hand has the experience and is no longer a boy among men in the league.

If the Diamondbacks want to continue to challenge for the National League West, they need a leader step up. They need someone to keep them together. They need to keep from breaking down.