The 5.5 Hole

Prince Fielder confirmed Wednesday night that this year would likely be his last with Milwaukee.  It seems that no matter how much of a bump in payroll the Brewers see next year after this powerful run they've had in 2011 will not be enough to re-sign Fielder in 2012.  Fielder will command lucrative offers from multiple sources such as the Cubs, Cardinals (if Pujols doesn't resign), the Yankees (mostly for DH duty), and the Angels.  So, the Brewers will be left with a gaping hole in their offense.

With the Brewers firmly in control of first place and the play-offs on the horizon, some may say it's too early to examine potential replacements at first base.  But I say, the sooner the better.  After Joey Votto, Adrian Gonzalez, Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols, and Mark Teixeira there is a severe drop-off in offensive talent at first base. Let's look at what's out there, realistic or not:

Lance Berkman:
Currently not classified as a first baseman, Berkman looks to have many potential offers in the off-season including those from the Cardinals.  If the Cardinals can't resign Pujols, Berkman would be the logical, in-house, replacement.  Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they can't offer Berkman a contract extension with hopes of him playing first base until they know for sure they're going to lose Pujols.  This leaves a big opening for the Brewers.  Berkman is making $8 million this season and has posted one of his best years ever.  They will likely have to pay Berkman a little more to land him, or give him a multi-year deal. 

Berkman's triple slash is impressive, .290/.404/.551, and his wRC+ ranks among one of his career bests at 157.  His 4.1 WAR is only 0.3 less than Fielder's, so the Brewers wouldn't be losing much there. 

Carlos Pena:
As a major flop for the Chicago Cubs, Pena will likely have to take a large pay-cut in 2012.  The Brewers may be able to throw a multi-year deal his way and land him at a discount.  By no means should they sign Pena to a long-term deal, but a two or three year deal might be enticing enough for Pena to take $6 million a year or less.

He's not horrible on offense, but his 2.5 WAR this season is nothing to write home about.  He did post decent numbers with OBP (.358) and slugging (.472) and he can still club a home run or two (27), so the Brewers would not be making a huge mistake if they can sign him at a rate much lower than the Cubs did.

Outside of these two players, the production levels for players realistically available drops off the table.  The Brewers may have to look to the farm to replace Fielder:

Mat Gamel:
In 128 games at AAA this season, he hit .310/.372/.540 and clubbed 28 home runs.  His wOBP was .391.  Each of the previous four years, including this season, Gamel has been called up to get some Major League action.  He has performed relatively well in limited action.  Over the course of those four call-ups, he has had 194 plate appearances and carried a .222/.309/.374 triple-slash.  His WAR shows an exactly replacement level player (0.0), but with more time, he could develop into a player the Brewers can lock-up long-term. 

At league minimum, he may be worth a shot. 


These are three players out of many first basemen that the Brewers can pursue.  However, after Carlos Pena, there are only two first basemen who have posted a WAR above 2 this season.  Slim pickins for the Brewers this off-season.  But with early offers and smart offers, the Brewers may be able to land Berkman or Pena.  If not, they should give Gamel a look. 

There has long been a belief in baseball that players who mash monster home run totals but strike out so much even Nolan Ryan would feel the strikeout was cheapened are worth the cost as long as they continue smacking bombs. Names like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Carlos Pena come to mind. Yet, when production numbers are actually analyzed, teams would be better off spending money on a contact hitter who gets on base.

Let's take a look at some of the career numbers for these strikeout "kings." The numbers below are through 2010.

Mark Reynolds: 767 strikeouts in 1,982 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .387), career batting average of .240.
Adam Dunn: 1,632 strikeouts in 4,975 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .328), career batting average of .246.
Ryan Howard: 1,035 strikeouts in 3,237 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .320), career batting average of .275.
Carlos Pena: 1,131 strikeouts in 3,620 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .312), career batting average of .239.
B.J. Upton: 690 strikeouts in 2,435 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .283), career batting average of .256.
Rickie Weeks: 648 strikeouts in 2,413 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .268), career batting average of .256.

When your strikeout average is higher than your batting average, things can't be going too well right? Well considering the contracts some of these players have signed, maybe things are going just fine. Below is what each player has made in his career through 2010.


Adam Dunn: $56,695,000
Ryan Howard: $42,255,000
Carlos Pena: $28,342,000
Rickie Weeks: $8,796,000
B.J. Upton: $4,234,000
Mark Reynold: $1,652,333


Based on these career earnings and career at-bats, we will next look at what each player made per at-bat through: 2010:

Ryan Howard: $ 13,054 per at-bat
Adam Dunn: $11,396 per at-bat
Carlos Pena: $7,829 per at-bat
Rickie Weeks: $3,645 per at-bat
B.J. Upton: $1,739 per at-bat
Mark Reynolds: $834 per at-bat

For our next analysis, we will only look at the top-three salaries per at-bat. Rickie Weeks, B.J. Upton, and Mark Reynolds have not yet been paid in the same realm as the top-three sluggers. While overly simplistic and probably unfair, let's now look at what each of these top-three players made for unproductive strikeout outs in their careers through 2010.

Adam Dunn: $18,598,272
Ryan Howard: $13,510,890
Carlos Pena: $8,854,599

Maybe it's just me, but that's a lot to be paid for doing something any average Joe can do. So in fairness, let's take a look at what each player was paid for productive at-bats (hits + walks + HBP + SF + SH).

Adam Dunn: $26,621,056
Ryan Howard: $18,667,220
Carlos Pena: $12,103,634

So there you have it, not much separation between what these power-hitters are being paid to strike out compared to what they are being paid for production. Historically, 33% of Adam Dunn's contract, 32% of Ryan Howard's contract, and 31% of Carlos Pena's contract is wasted on strikeouts.

I already admitted this analysis is overly simplistic, but sometimes simple is all it takes. If I'm spending money on big name players, and each of these three players are big name, I'd like to get a little more production. But just to take the analysis a bit further, we'll wrap up by looking at these players' WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for their careers through 2010.


Ryan Howard: 20.8 (7 years, average WAR of 2.97)
Adam Dunn: 27.1 (11 years, average WAR of 2.46)
Carlos Pena: 13.1 (11 years, average WAR of 1.19)

Finally, I'll leave you with this; an MVP season is estimated to be 8+ WAR, an All-Star season is estimated to be 5+ WAR, a starter should be 2+ WAR, and a substitute should be 0-2 WAR. Carlos Pena is getting paid $10 million in 2011 to produce the WAR that a substitute could produce. Adam Dunn is getting paid $14,000,000 with an average WAR that barely puts him at starter level. Ryan Howard is being paid $20,000,000 and if you believe the WAR estimates, fans were right in not voting him to the 2011 All-Star Game.

Money well-spent?