The 5.5 Hole

You probably haven't noticed him. He's probably slipped past your radar. His success doesn't matter to you. He plays for the San Diego Padres, a team that has (at the time of this article) lost nine straight games. He is Jesus Guzman, and his career is fascinating.

Guzman was drafted by the Mariners in 2000 as a Venezuelan teen. In 2004, he came to the states and played high-A ball in the Mariners organization before being promoted to AA. After two successful seasons there, he was dumped back down to single-A. The next season, he found himself traded to the Athletics organization. Guzman progressed through AA, AAA, and the rookie league that season then, in 2009 was sent across the Bay to San Francisco. Finally, after six seasons in the Minor Leagues, Guzman made it to the show. In limited action, 12 games to be exact, he was unimpressive and sent back to AAA. The Giants outrighted him to AAA for good in 2010 so he was free to sign elsewhere. Which he did. In November of 2010, Guzman signed with the Padres. By midway through 2011, he was part of the big league club.

But that's just the background to his story. The true story is that of a successful Minor Leaguer who was never really given a shot in the big leagues. This is a story of a player who saw action in 756 Minor League games, came to the plate 3,326 times, and posted a career Minor League triple slash of .305/.373/.480. Guzman's is the strange story of successful ball player with nowhere to play.

Teams seemed to be afraid of his defense. They placed less value on him as a player because of his .949 career Minor League fielding percentage. They all failed to realize his offense overcame his defense. They all failed to place the right value on him, and they let him wallow in the Minor Leagues his entire career. But the Padres saw something else.

The Padres saw a player with a high on-base percentage and a 1.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio. They brought him up to the Show this season and all Guzman has done is rake. He is currently hitting .326/.379/.516. In only 206 plate appearances this season, Guzman has accounted for 15 Runs Above Replacement and can boast a 1.6 WAR.

To make things better for the Padres, Guzman is working on a Minor League contract. They have a chance to lock up Cameron Maybin and Jesus Guzman to long-term deals. Guzman, when valued properly, is the type of player you can build a team around. He is a bright spot in a dark lonely season mostly spent in the cellar.

Bruce Bochy's head is enormous. He wears a cap size larger than an 8. That's big. But he's carrying a lot of baseball knowledge under that cap, so it's fair.

Since becoming a manager, Bochy has compiled a near-.500 record at 1336-1349. Early next season, he should eclipse the .500 mark with the Giants. This begs the question, what separates Bochy's career with San Diego and his career with San Francisco?

Bochy is 24 games under .500 for his career with the Padres, but 11 games over with the Giants. He is a baseball guy and a great strategist, but perhaps he was being held back in San Diego. Let's take a look at payroll figures for Bochy's tenure in San Diego compared to San Francisco.

1995 Padres - $25,962,334
1996 Padres - $27,814,172*
1997 Padres - $36,401,672
1998 Padres - $46,110,500**
1999 Padres - $40,801,513
2000 Padres - $40,099,333
2001 Padres - $38,702,833
2002 Padres - $33,055,000
2003 Padres - $33,610,000
2004 Padres - $51,534,833***
2005 Padres - $57,073,833*
2006 Padres - $64,396,141*


Now let's look at the Giants:

2007 Giants - $80,352,837
2008 Giants - $70,934,000
2009 Giants - $77,063,700***
2010 Giants - $98,186,333**


* Division Title (the Giants are currently in 1st place this season)
**NL Pennant (note: the Giants went on to win the World Series in 2010)
***Winning Season

Bochy was given an average salary of $41,296,597 in San Diego. And as shown by his NL Pennant year and final three winning seasons, a little bit larger payroll allowed him to navigate the team to success.

So far in San Francisco, Bochy has been allowed an average salary of $81,634,218. Almost double his average payroll with the Padres.

I've always been a proponent of playing small ball, building around defense and pitching, and infusing youth into the lineup. I've always felt that with the right combination, payroll should not matter much. However, there are certain barriers to success, and an absurdly low payroll is one of them.

Bruce Bochy has proven he is a good manager. To spend 12 seasons in San Diego with an average payroll hovering around $41 million, and to still only finish 24 games under .500 is impressive. Imagine what he could have done with an average payroll of $50 million. We will never know, but we get to watch his mind at work with less limitations and more freedom now in San Francisco. As the only manager in San Francisco history to win a World Series, I think he's proven spending a little more money works when you have the right skipper.