The 5.5 Hole

You probably haven't noticed him. He's probably slipped past your radar. His success doesn't matter to you. He plays for the San Diego Padres, a team that has (at the time of this article) lost nine straight games. He is Jesus Guzman, and his career is fascinating.

Guzman was drafted by the Mariners in 2000 as a Venezuelan teen. In 2004, he came to the states and played high-A ball in the Mariners organization before being promoted to AA. After two successful seasons there, he was dumped back down to single-A. The next season, he found himself traded to the Athletics organization. Guzman progressed through AA, AAA, and the rookie league that season then, in 2009 was sent across the Bay to San Francisco. Finally, after six seasons in the Minor Leagues, Guzman made it to the show. In limited action, 12 games to be exact, he was unimpressive and sent back to AAA. The Giants outrighted him to AAA for good in 2010 so he was free to sign elsewhere. Which he did. In November of 2010, Guzman signed with the Padres. By midway through 2011, he was part of the big league club.

But that's just the background to his story. The true story is that of a successful Minor Leaguer who was never really given a shot in the big leagues. This is a story of a player who saw action in 756 Minor League games, came to the plate 3,326 times, and posted a career Minor League triple slash of .305/.373/.480. Guzman's is the strange story of successful ball player with nowhere to play.

Teams seemed to be afraid of his defense. They placed less value on him as a player because of his .949 career Minor League fielding percentage. They all failed to realize his offense overcame his defense. They all failed to place the right value on him, and they let him wallow in the Minor Leagues his entire career. But the Padres saw something else.

The Padres saw a player with a high on-base percentage and a 1.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio. They brought him up to the Show this season and all Guzman has done is rake. He is currently hitting .326/.379/.516. In only 206 plate appearances this season, Guzman has accounted for 15 Runs Above Replacement and can boast a 1.6 WAR.

To make things better for the Padres, Guzman is working on a Minor League contract. They have a chance to lock up Cameron Maybin and Jesus Guzman to long-term deals. Guzman, when valued properly, is the type of player you can build a team around. He is a bright spot in a dark lonely season mostly spent in the cellar.

I'll still talk about it. I'll still write about it. I'll even still use it to analyze players. But by itself, batting average is as close to useless a stat as you can get. On-base percentage shows everything batting average shows and more.

It's easy to look at a player with a batting average over .300 and think he's a good player. It's simple to just take that stat and assume that hitter can contribute. Yet, succeeding at the plate (success in this case means getting a hit) 30% of the time is impressive only if that player is also getting on base in other ways. Let's take a look at some of the league leaders in batting average verse some of the leaders in on-base percentage. Only players with at least 300 plate appearances will be considered.

Top 5 in batting average:

Adrian Gonzalez .345
Michael Young .336
Jose Reyes .336
Ryan Braun .334
Miguel Cabrera .328

Top 5 in OBP:

Jose Bautista .453
Joey Votto .438
Miguel Cabrera .432
Prince Fielder .409
Adrian Gonzalez .406

There's a bit of variation here, but we still see two of the same players we saw on the BA list. Let's break this down further.

The league average for BA and OBP are .255 and .320 respectively. There are currently 19 players who are at .255 or lower in batting average but higher than .320 in OBP. Conversely, there 14 players whose BA is at or above league average but have an OBP lower than league average.

Let's take this analysis deeper, to a specific player level. Prince Fielder is hitting .295, which is nothing to ignore and a very nice average. But it's only 15.7% higher than the league average. I'd be willing to bet a quick salary check reveals Fielder's pay to be more than 15.7% higher than league average, so hopefully he's contributing elsewhere. And he is. In home runs and OBP. His .409 OBP ranks him 27.8% better than league average.

Below are three other players whose BA's wouldn't suggest they are much more special than average but their OBP's do:

Lance Berkman: .289 BA (13.3% better than average)/.405 OBP (26.5% better than average)

Nick Swisher: .267 BA (4.7% better than average)/.383 OBP (19.7% better than average)

Kevin Youkalis: .266 BA (4.3% better than average)/.380 OBP (18.8% better than average)

Finally, there are more players with a higher than average OBP than there are players with a higher than average BA. There is quite a bit of talent out there being undervalued because of batting average alone.

Many articles have touched on BA vs. OBP, and it seems increasingly clear that batting average means far less than OBP. So as I continue to hypocritically analyze players based on batting average and be awed by players hitting for a high average, remember OBP means so much more.