The 5.5 Hole

We are still a couple months away from handing out the hardware, but everyone and their mother is talking about the Cy Young and the MVP. Rather than just pick my favorites, I'm doing something a little different. I am creating an entirely new award. I've touched on the subject briefly when discussing a pitcher as an MVP. Here's the gist; I believe a pitcher should be able to win the MVP and the Cy Young as long as there is an overall best position player award.

So, in that vein, I created The Ripken Award. Cal Ripken Jr. spent much of his career playing for bad teams. But he was always great. The Ripken Award will go to the best overall position player in each league without concern about that player's team's record. This is truly an individual award for the best position player. We will still discuss the MVP and Cy Young awards as well. So, here we go:

A.L. MVP:
Justin Verlander - Let's face it, the Tigers would not be anywhere near the top of the division without Justin Verlander. They would probably be under .500, looking up at the Indians and White Sox. His 21 wins so far blows away the competition and his WAR leads all pitchers. If you are truly picking a player who has performed amazingly well and been the key to his team's success, Verlander is that player.

A.L. Cy Young:
Justin Verlander - Wins still mean something among baseball enthusiasts. I understand the argument that a pitcher only controls 50% of the outcome of a game (clearly that percentage fluctuates based on different situations, but 50% is pretty easy to use for this example). Runs are produced by the offense and runs are saved by the defense. The pitcher makes up a big part of the defense, but a small part of the offense. Therefore, the value of the wins stat is often minimized. But 130 years of baseball keeps wins as an important gauge to a pitcher's season.

We already know Verlander leads the league in wins, so let's focus on what else he has done. At 7.7 WAR, he leads Halladay by a full 1.3 WAR. Verlander also leads the league in hits per 9 by a wide margin at 6.215. Finally, his 224 strikeouts leads all of baseball by 12. And it gives him a decent shot at 250 on the year. All said, Verlander is the clear A.L. Cy Young winner.

A.L. Ripken Award:
Jose Bautista - Among position players, Bautista is dominating the WAR category at 8.1. The next closest in the American League is Dustin Pedroia with 6.7. His .449 OBP ranks number one and 19 points better than the next American Leaguer. His 39 home runs and 109 walks also put him tops in the A.L.

N.L. MVP:
Ryan Braun - His team has a death grip on first place, and he has been a major reason. He'd working on a 30/30 season. He just needs 5 more home runs to reach 30. He's already got 31 stolen bases. Braun's .987 OPS ranks him number one in the National League. So do his 93 runs scored. Finally, his 6.7 WAR puts him right behind Matt Kemp (we'll get to him in a minute).

N.L. Cy Young:
Cliff Lee - This was a close race with Clayton Kershaw. Lee's June and his August give him the edge though. Two undefeated months in any year will put you on the fast track to a CY Young. Lee is an outlier in an awards season picked by straightforward statistics. Lee only leads one category, shutouts with 5. But he ranks near the top in almost every other pitcher ranking. He's second in pitcher WAR with 5.7, sixth in ERA at 2.59, fourth in WHIP at 1.053, and fifth in K/9 at 9.15.  Cliff Lee is as complete an all-around pitcher as we have seen in a long time.  My apologies to Clayton Kershaw, but Cliff Lee gets my pick.

N.L. Ripken Award:
Matt Kemp - Kemp leads all of baseball with 8.4 WAR.  The next closest in the National League is Ryan Braun, a whopping 1.9 WAR behind.  Matt Kemp's triple slash is admirable by itself: .321/.399/.568.  He is third in the N.L. in hits with 163, and has a legitimate shot at 200.  He is tied for second in home runs with 31 and third in RBI's with 103.  If not for Ryan Braun and Jose Reyes, we'd be talking about Kemp pushing towards a triple crown.  Kemp is by far the best position player in the league, but he plays for the Dodgers.  They are only better than the Padres in the West and can barely draw any fans.  That's why he won't win the MVP, but he's a lock for the first annual Ripken Award.

There you have it.  The awards have been handed out.  I highly doubt we will see much change over the last month of the season.  I left out Rookie of the Year because the award has little meaning.  To be the best rookie simply means you play better than everyone else on a reduced scale.  An award that is presented to someone for less contribution would make no sense if not awarded to rookies.  So we'll leave that one to the voters.  

As the pages fall off the calendar and teams ready themselves for the postseason, conversations about the MVP races will quickly heat up. Already, discussions are being launched and debates are taking shape. One of the key debates that will likely get a lot of coverage is that of a pitcher receiving the MVP award.

There's really no question that Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay are the best pitchers in the game, maybe even the best players. But they won't receive serious MVP consideration. A starting pitcher has not received an MVP award since 1986.

And this is for good reason.

Proponents of pitchers receiving the MVP will point to the overall dominance and stats of pitchers like Verlander and Halladay. Advanced metrics will show Halladay leading all of the National League in WAR and they will show Verlander fourth in the American League. I'm a big fan of advanced metrics, but like any other statistic, they have flaws.

For example, WAR is best viewed in comparison with players of the same position. Fangraphs even points out the need for positional adjustments when reviewing WAR. Pitchers have different responsibilities than fielders. Whether you feel that makes them more valuable or less is up to you, just remember that WAR is difficult to apply across all positions accurately. Pitchers play every fifth day where position players play everyday. There is more of an everyday value added for position players.

This argument is not to say pitchers don't play an integral role in success. The argument is simply that MVP awards are better designed for position players.

I'm going to bring up an old argument, but hopefully I'll shed new light on it. The best pitcher is awarded the Cy Young each year based on voter opinions. What award do batters have that only applies to them? The Silver Slugger (the batting average title). But the problem with this award is in it's value. It awards based on batting average only. A player may finish with the highest on-base percentage and lose out on the Silver Slugger to someone with a higher batting average. The point is, the Silver Slugger does not reward the best position player. It rewards the player who gets the most hits as a ratio of at-bats.

So if pitchers have the Cy Young and, for the sake of this argument, we've determined position players do not have a best all around player award, there are really only two solutions. Give the MVP to a position player as the trend has been, or create a new award just for position players and open the MVP voting up to everyone. Theoretically, the MVP voting is already open to everyone, but the fact that pitchers have the Cy Young award is always in the back of voters minds. By creating a separate award for the best all-around position player, voters would be freed and able to objectively determine an MVP, even if that player is a pitcher.

Unless that happens though, the MVP should go to the best position player and the Cy Young to the best pitcher.

Don't watch Justin Verlander pitch. Just don't do it. If you have anything else to do, chores, dinner, work, or school, don't watch the Tigers' ace throw a single pitch. If you do, you won't stop until he's done. His lightning fastballs and mind-boggling breaking balls remind us all why we are on the couch and not in a batter's box. The very idea of facing a 100 MPH fastball from Justin Verlander is scary enough, but knowing he can back it up with a devastating slider or any number if off-speed pitches is purely terrifying.

Yesterday, Verlander won his 19th game of the season. Depending on play-off positioning and rest for the start of the postseason, Verlander could have six more starts. He may not win them all, but he has won his last seven straight, so who knows. If he wins all six starts, that will put him at 25 wins. What does that mean in a recent historical context?

In the last 10 seasons, only Randy Johnson has reached even 24 wins. The last pitcher to win 25 games was Bob Welch in 1990. If Verlander can defy the odds (which is kind of his thing right?), he may become the first pitcher in over 20 years to win 25 games.

But what are the chances of that happening?

Verlander has started 28 games. He has won 19 and lost 5. That means he has 4 no-decisions. 5 losses out of 28 comes to an 18% chance of a loss. 4 no-decisions out of 28 starts comes to a 14% chance of a no-decision. Combined, Verlander has a 32% chance of not getting a win in any given start. If we carry that through to the estimated 34 starts Verlander will make this year, we come up with a total of 10.88 games that will not be won overall. Since Verlander already has 9 games of combined losses and no-decisions, he may be looking at two more starts where he doesn't get a win. If that does in fact happen, Verlander will finish the year with 23 wins.

Clearly, the probabilities we are working with are based on a relatively small sample size, so it is very possible for Verlander to win more or less games down the stretch. No matter the final total, each time Justin Verlander pitches, it becomes compelling television.

So if you can afford to be sucked in, if you have nothing important to do, setlle in to Verlander's next start. Allow him to mesmerize you with dominant pitching reminiscent of Hall of Famers long since passed. Allow him to paint a picture of pitching excellence as he pushes the Tigers toward a division crown and himself towards history.

But if you don't have the time, don't tune in. All it will take is one pitch and Verlander will have you hooked.

According the Fangraphs stats glossary, "Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average."

FIP adjusts for fielding luck, fielding talent, and all those things a pitcher truly can't control. Generally speaking, FIP is a better indicator of future performance. The theory being that a pitcher whose defense has performed exceptionally well will have a lower ERA, but once that fielding performance inevitably levels off, the pitcher's ERA may rise. The opposite is true as well. If a pitcher has a high ERA but a lower FIP, the ERA should come down as the team's defense begins to play better.

In looking at the top-ten ERA's for this season, I became curious which pitcher has the biggest gap.

1) Johnny Cueto: 1.89 ERA/3.45 FIP
2) Jered Weaver: 2.10 ERA/2.84 FIP
3) Justin Verlander: 2.31 ERA/2.69 FIP
4) Josh Beckett: 2.46 ERA/3.40 FIP
5) Ryan Vogelsong: 2.47 ERA/3.57 FIP
6) Tim Lincecum: 2.53 ERA/2.85 FIP
7) Roy Halladay: 2.56 ERA/2.12 FIP
8) Clayton Kershaw: 2.60 ERA/2.55 FIP
9) Cole Hamels: 2.62 ERA/2.64 FIP
10) Justin Masterson: 2.71 ERA/2.92 FIP

Now, I'll rank the players based on their gap (FIP - ERA).

1) Roy Halladay: -0.44
2) Clayton Kershaw: -0.05
3) Cole Hamels: 0.02
4) Justin Masterson: 0.21
5) Tim Lincecum: 0.32
6) Justin Verlander: 0.38
7) Jered Weaver: 0.74
8) Josh Beckett: 0.94
9) Ryan Vogelsong: 1.10
10) Johnny Cueto: 1.56

Based in this list, it would seem Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw are likely pitching better than their ERA's would suggest. It would also seem that Johnny Cueto's ERA may not be something he can maintain beyond this season.