The 5.5 Hole

I wrote a three-part series earlier this year outlining my opinion on what baseball needs to do to increase its popularity. In the first part I explored attendance figure and concluded that totals have held pretty steady. Well forget the numbers. If you open a newspaper, go online, or flip on the television it seems doomsdayers are pointing to the fans' complete abandonment of baseball. They will show you pictures of empty ball parks. They will pick and choose teams, citing all-time lows in attendance. They will pull out the smoke and mirrors, and they may even ask Chris Angel to freak your mind.

The fact is, as pointed out in a completely unrelated Sports Illustrated article, average attendance league-wide is down just 14 fans. 14! Since last year how many more people have lost jobs? How many have taken pay cuts? And baseball has only lost an average of 14 fans per game.

If we were to just look at the teams struggling in attendance, of course we will see a problem. But what about the other teams? What about Pittsburgh who, until last month, was drawing more fans on average than they have in a decade. They've had more sell-outs this season than they have since the 90's. What about San Francisco? As of August 10th they had sold out 60 consecutive home games. What about Boston? You'd have to damn near hit the lottery to afford a scalped ticket to the constantly sold-out Fenway Park. How about St. Louis or Minnesota? Or the Angels and Rangers?

It's popular to believe baseball is dying. It's trendy to throw certain teams' attendance figures around as proof of the sport's decline. But popularity and trends are rarely built on honest fact. Think for yourself, do the research, and know that while it's not the most popular sport, baseball is surviving a terrible economy just fine.

Every year a handful of teams start the season in "rebuilding" mode. These teams take their limited payrolls and devote their cash toward the future. They settle for mediocrity in the hopes of a better future. The question is why?

In what other business, and make no mistake about it baseball is a business, can an owner sit back and simply say "not this year?" To quit before you begin leads to complete and utter failure. But not in baseball. In baseball it is completely understandable to begin the season with a goal that would seem counter-intuitive to the sport. These teams have a "rebuilding" goal that essentially forfeits the season.This happens because baseball is socialism-lite.  Revenue sharing helps off-set any losses the small market teams may have.  Rather than push for higher attendance, rather than make their own money, many team settle for the extra cash paid by those teams hit by the luxury tax. 

But it doesn't have to be that way.  Losing is not the crime here.  Not trying is.  If a team is striving toward success every year, the fans will come.  Baseball should be a constant experiment in winning.  Don't have a lot of money to work with?  That's fine.  Figure out new ways to win.  The Seattle Mariners have done it, the Oakland A's have done it, and the Tampa Bay Rays have done it.  Sustained long-term success is the difficulty here, but the key is innovation.  Much like a pitcher who has found a hitter's weak spot at the plate, adjustments should always be made.  If that hitter wants to remain in the big leagues, he will find a way to adjust to that pitch to keep from getting out. 

During every off-season, rather than resign to another losing year, teams should be brainstorming.  What has worked for other teams?  What hasn't worked?  Why have the successes of other teams stopped working?  Research and development.  Experimenting.  Trying. 

Just take a look at the last-place team in each division.  They can easily shrug their failure off as rebuilding years, but they shouldn't.  They should be giving the fans reason to hope.  Come out and tell them the goal is to win.  Show the fans you are trying.  Prove to them that, even if the team loses, you are not simply allowing the team to wallow in failure in hopes of a great year decades from now.  Success should be a constant goal.  The fans deserve that.  To fail while trying to be successful means you tried.  To fail while building for the future means you gave up. 

The best way to make a profit in baseball is to attract fans.  It seems like simple enough logic doesn't it?  The more people who attend a baseball game, the more ticket sales the team will have, the more concession stand purchases, the more team shop purchases.  Even the smallest market ball club has plenty of fans just hoping and wishing for the opportunity to go to a game and cheer on a winning team.  They flip on the television and see game's like Sunday night's Ranger/Angels game.  They see the intensity, the crowd, the energy.  And they wish they could be part of it.  But they stay home.  Their team is in a "rebuilding" year, and disposed of any real hope on Opening Day. 

Again, losing isn't the issue here.  The concept of rebuilding is.  For teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Kansas City Royals, and any other perrennial losers, what are you rebuilding?  Are you rebuilding the success of the '70's, the '80's, or even the '90's?  Those teams and players are long gone.  What you're left with is the here and the now.  The development of young players is perfectly fine.  But the goal is to run a Major League franchise.  Not a Triple-A club. 

With this in mind, stop promoting the idea of rebuilding.  Stop dreaming of the future.  Forget about getting lucky and finding a cheap ball club with All-Star talent.  Get on the phones and the internet and search.  Lock your executives in a board room and brain storm.  Start your experiment now.  Test your hypotheses.  Squeeze success out of every limited dollar you have because the future is not 10 years from now.  The future is today. 

The Brewers have a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals, a 13 game lead over the Reds, and a 17 game lead over the Pirates.  All season long, the run away division seemed to be the National League East with the Phillies dominating and the Braves bringing up the Wild Card.  Now, the Braves are 6 games back and at least within striking distance.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have opened up a virtually insurmountable lead.

How did this all happen?  On August 1st, the N.L. Central standings looked like this:

Milwaukee: 60-49
St. Louis: 57-21 -- 2.5 GB
Pittsburgh: 55-52 -- 4 GB
Cincinnati: 54-55 -- 6 GB

Since then, all Milwaukee has done is have one of the all-time great months.  In August, the Brewers have gone 20-5, scored 131 runs, and only gave up 77 runs. The National League records for wins is 29, held by the New York Giants.  While the Brewers won't be able to reach that total, they still have three more games this month.

While the Brewers have been winning, everyone else has been losing.  The Cardinals went 12-13 in August so far, the Pirates went 7-18, and the Reds went 12-11.  What's probably more frustrating for the fans is that each of these three teams added pieces at the trade deadline in an attempt to compete for the division. 

The Cardinals traded away Colby Rasmus but picked up Edwin Jackson.  The Pirates added Ryan Ludwick and Derek Lee.  The Reds traded Jonny Gomes to the Nationals for cash, outfielder Bill Rhinehart, and pitcher Chris Manno. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers stood pat for the most part.  They did trade Erik Komatsu for Jerry Hairston Jr., and they traded Wil Nieves for cash.  Hardly moves designed to bolster their line-up or change their make-up.  The Brewers gelled as a team while other teams were adding new pieces.  They rallied around each other, the players they had battled with all season long, and put so much ground between the Cardinals and themselves that they are almost a lock for the play-offs.  In doing so they now own the third best record in all of baseball. 

So even though the race is all but over, we can delight in the dominance of the Milwaukee Brewers.  We can revel in their success.  Or we can hate their fortune.  That's what baseball is all about. 

The boys and girls of Pittsburgh are talking about math and science today. They're talking about new backpacks and pencils and notebooks and calculators. They're talking about the upcoming school year with anticipation and wonder. They've forgotten how relieved they were when school had ended just a few months ago.

Almost as quickly as they have forgotten about their Pirates and contention, or their Pirates and winning.

The men of Pittsburgh have turned their attention to the Steelers. Mini camp and preseason has replaced pennant races and hopes of a postseason.

The sun is setting quickly on the Pirates season, and I'm ready to admit it. Less than a week ago I was defending the Pirates and their little slump. But now they are crumpling under the weight of 10-straight losses. They are 10 games out of first place when two weeks ago they were in first.

The Pirates may recover, and they may finish over .500. However, they 5 games under and coming off being swept by the Padres. Not only were they swept, but they gave up 35 runs in three games. This does not look like the same team scratching out wins. Instead, it looks like the Pirates of old.

It's sad for the city of Pittsburgh. To get so close only to see it washed away.  The promise of big things, buying at the trade deadline, and nationally televised games were all for not.  That is, unless Pittsburgh learns from this.

A quick look at the stands over the weekend showed a dramatic increase in attendance over years past.  For a three-game set against the last place Padres, Pirates fans packed the park.  The Pirates ownership cannot expect to see turnouts like that continue over the next few years if they do not remain competitive.  Give the fans something to cheer about so that they want to come out.  The Pirate's organization is faced with a fork in the road.  One road leads towards fielding a consistently competitive ball club, the other leads towards more losing seasons and less fans.  Which fork they take is anyone's guess, but as the sun sets on this once promising season for the Pirates, I hope it's the former.  

It's 10:30 AM.  You just woke up with the biggest hangover after an all night rager, and you find the girl you thought was pretty isn't quite so pretty the next morning lying next to you.  What do you do?

You never talk about it again.

That's what it seems the world is doing with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It would seem America's feel good story of the year has turned into nothing more than another case of beer goggles for most people.  The Pirates, losers of five straight, find themselves deep in third place, six games back of the Brewers.  They are sitting on an even 54-54 record, and would seem the lightest of breezes could knock them back to a 19th losing season.

But all that said, the Pirates are still alive and kicking.  At least for now.  I have counted the Pirates as not only a team that will have a winning record at year's end, but will contend in the division.  Teams can go through a bad stretch.  Even the best ones lose multiple games in a row.  The problem with the Pirates is that while so much of this country was all-in on the Pirates bandwagon, the same people were silently waiting for them to fall.

That's why no one is writing about a team that was formerly sitting in first place but lost five straight games to drop to third.  No one is talking about a team with 18 straight losing seasons who had us all convinced that streak would end.  No one is even thinking about what this means for a franchise so deep in losing, an entire generation has been lost. 

I'm not sure what's worse, to have the doomsday prophecies come out in August, or to be ignored.  Either way, the Pirates are not done.  They have enough talent to carry them to a winning season.  Maybe not a division title, but a winning season nonetheless.  The fact is, the Pirates have no choice but to finish this season above .500. 

I'm not sure the city of Pittsburgh can handle being led on most of the season only to be turned away into the October cold with nothing but the memories of another losing season.  The Pirates were buyers at the trade deadline for the first time in years.  They have drawn more fans to both the park and the television.  They appeared on ESPN for the first time since 2002.  They simply cannot finish this season with a losing record. 

I choose to keep my beer goggles on.  I choose to maintain the same beliefs now that the Pirates are in third place that I did when they were in first place.  They have good pitching, play solid defense, and manufacture runs.  For a team with a low payroll and limited offensive power, those qualities usually lead to success.  So don't worry Pittsburgh, you're still the same team I met at the bar last night, and I'm not ready to run out and forget you. 

The smell of brats and beer wafted gently through the concourse, through the stands, and into the Milwaukee sun.  The sound of children laughing, men reminiscing, and line-drives flying pulsed through a near sellout crowd.  The thrill of the Brewers sixth straight win was not lost on anyone in Milwaukee, but it was lost on the rest of the world.

As the chirping of Blackberries and iPhone's drowned out the sounds of baseball with the sounds of trade rumors, as the news on the hot stove simmered so loud people couldn't hear the games, the Brewers quietly built themselves a 2-game lead in the central, stole Pittsburgh's magic slipper, and all but delivered a knock out punch to a punch-less Reds team.  Quietly, without fanfare (except those Brew Crew faithful), they swept the Cubs and they swept the Astros.

Now, two games better than the Cardinals and four and a half games better than the Pirates, the Brewers must contend with results.  They must contend with being 11-games over .500 for the first time this season, with leading the division once again after squandering it away and finding themselves in a three-team race, and they must contend with the trades.  As the Brewers have been doing a crazy little thing called winning, other teams were wheeling a dealing.

The Pirates, in the midst of being punished by Philly over the course of three games, picked up some offensive help in Derek Lee and Ryan Ludwick.  Both hope to reinvent themselves in a hitter's park.  The Cardinals added five players in July trades including Rafael Furcal from the Dodgers.  In a move designed to increase on-base percentage and generate offense ahead of Pujols and Berkman, the Cardinals sent Double-A player Alex Castellanos to the Dodgers.  And so the puzzle pieces have been laid out.  It's up to the teams to make them fit.  It's up to the players to make it stick.

The Brewers in the mean time will continue to rely on Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, monster home runs and come from behind wins.  They will continue to kick, scratch, and bite their way towards a National League Central Championship.  The other teams may get the headlines, but the Brewers will let their wins do the talking and go quietly into the night (or day in today's case).



 

Every year around this time there's a run on boxes and packing tape. As teams in the hunt wheel and deal with those shedding payroll, the moving industry gets a temporary bump. With less than 24 hours left before the non-waiver deadline, I'll examine the winners and losers so far.

Let's take a look at the winners and losers, top to bottom:

1) Giants. Carlos Beltran provides a much needed bump to the San Francisco offense. For more tha half the year, they have relied on their pitching staff to carry them along in a mild National League West. With this move, they prove their plan is repeat or bust. No longer satisfied with coasting along, the Giants almost instantly put distance between themselves and the Diamondbacks.

2) Indians. By picking up Ubaldo Jimenez, Cleveland looks to secure a positive run differential in the American League Central. With the White Sox as the only team giving up less runs than they score (barely), it was clear that the Indians needed pitching help if they were going to continued to compete.

3) Pirates. Just announced, the Pirates pulled of a deal for a sweet swinging left handed bat in Derek Lee. While Lee's numbers have clearly been on the decline, he should see a minor statistical resurgence playing at PNC Park the rest of the season. The park plays smaller than Camden and should allow Lee to help the Pirates challenge for the division crown. More importantly, it signals to Pirates fans that this team is actually in it to win, not just to create the warm and fuzzy feel good story of its first winning season in 18 years.

4) Phillies. Hunter Pence should help Philly in two important areas; Offense and youth. The Phillies should have control over Pence for the next two years without even having to work a new deal. They get a proven contact hitter with a little pop, and they get some youth infused into an ever-increasingly older team. Already the clear National League favorite, the Phillies may be able to force the Braves to forget about a division win and focus on the Wild Card.

5) Red Sox. Rich Harden should help, but probably not enough to justify the trade. This move feels like a move made simply for the sake of the trade deadline. Over his career, Harden has proven himself successful, but he is injury prone. The Red Sox should do fine with this deal, but most likely could have done fine without it.

6) Diamondbacks. Already 3 games back in the division, the Dbacks were faced with the prospect of dealing with the Giants AND Carlos Beltran the rest of the season. Their counter-move? Trading for Jason Marquis. Arizona gave up a 21 year old prospect for a 33 year old pitcher with only 7 wins more than he has loses. Marquis is a decent player, but in comparison to the Beltran deal, it's like a boxer countering an upper-cut with a weak side jab.

7) Yankees. They will likely take the Wild Card, but by standing idly by, they seem to be willing to allow the Red Sox to take the division. New York is a good team that could have been better. With such a head start earlier in the season over a struggling Sox team, it would seem the Yankees would dread giving up not only the division lead but the eventual crown. Yet, their lack of action during the trade season would indicate otherwise.

There will probably be more trades to come, but based on what we know so far, these are the winners and losers. Now, it's the time for teams to take these puzzle pieces, put them in place, and charge toward the finish line. Races will intensify, rivalries will renew, and the play-offs will take center-stage.

Up to the time of his injury, Jose Reyes was the hands down, stop even debating, foregone conclusion, lock for the National League MVP. Now though, Andrew McCutchen is giving him a run for his money. And here's the biggest difference; McCutchen is playing for a first place team (as of end of play on Friday).

Let's take a quick look at their stats coming into Saturday, then we will jump into the meat and potatoes of our discussion.

Jose Reyes:

Andrew McCutchen:




Jose Reyes' batting average blows McCutchen out of the water, but how about the on-base percentages?  McCutchen is sitting on a .390 OBP while Reyes has a similar .398.  Reyes has more hits and more stolen bases, but McCutchen has more walks and more home runs.  But here's the kicker, McCutchen has 24 more RBI's than Reyes.  Jose Reyes has accounted for 97 runs between RBI's and runs scored.  McCutchen has accounted for 110. 

Really, these two players are so evenly matched, the normal stat line doesn't do this debate justice.  It's like picking between scrambled eggs or an omlet.  It's like choosing curly fires or straight cut.  Forget about the large gap in batting averages for a minute and just look at those stat lines.  Reyes and McCutchen have the exact same amount of doubles.  Reyes has 11 more triples, but McCutchen has 11 more home runs.  The difference between slugging percentage is only .021.  And the difference between OPS (slugging percentage plus on-base percentage) is just .030.

Let's take a look at Fangraph's WAR rating for each of these two.  Not suprisingly, they both rate at a 5.2 WAR for the 2011 season.

So what distinguishes these two talents.  Their position in the field?  Maybe.  Andrew McCutchen's defense in the outfield has given him an 8.3 Ultimate Zone Rating by Fangraphs.  This rating measures the runs above the MLB average saved by defense.  (The MLB average used for the purpose of this stat is 0).  Jose Reyes is currently rated 1.0.  However, this stat can be somewhat misleading.  If we use career averages, McCutchen's three years and Reyes' eight years, we get a much different picture.  Jose Reyes' UZR for his career is 17.6.  However, McCutchen's is only -6.7.

The true test of an MVP candidate's impact on the game are not just the statistics he puts up.  They are the intangibles.  Andrew McCutchen is leading a Pittsburgh Pirates team that lost 105 games last season to first place coming into Saturday.  Jose Reyes is the best player on a Mets team that is so deep in financial problems some might consider them the Junior Varsity version of the Dodgers.  McCutchen is 24 years old with many more productive years ahead of him.  Jose Reyes is often viewed as injury-prone and at 28 years old, likely has about six good years at shortstop left.

McCutchen hits for power and average.  He draws walks.  He is well-liked.  While Jose Reyes is having a great season, is well-liked himself, and has had a productive major league career to date, the very definition of Most Valuable Player precludes him from consideration in my book.  The Most Valuable Player is the player that contributes the most to his team and provides the most value.  Jose Reyes is absolutely the MVP of the Mets.  Hands down.  But, Andrew McCutchen is the MVP of the league.

History tells us a team's record has little to do with the MVP voting, but in this case preference points need to be awarded.  The Pirates have, for eighteen years, been a team so deep in disappointment, their opponents could almost guarantee themselves a series win each and every time out.  Andrew McCutchen has helped turn that around.  He has helped the Pirates climb to the top.  Whether they stay there or not is up in the air, but 91 games is a pretty good sample size when gauging success.

Jose Reyes may be earning himself a fat paycheck after this season, but McCutchen may be earning much more; Success and pride for a team that's been missing those two things for almost two decades.