The 5.5 Hole

One team is owned by the only man to have tossed seven no-hitters.  The only man to have struck out more than 5,000 batters.  The only man to have beat the heck out of Robin Ventura.  OK, that last one has little to do with baseball, but still proves Nolan Ryan's toughness.  The Rangers were built to pitch.  "New" philosophies were introduced by Ryan and his management team.  Pitchers would go longer in games.  There would be less focus on pitch counts and more focus on results.  They were going to win the way the Giants beat them in 2010; with pitching. 

The other team started the year with two legitimate Cy Young candidates in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.  They had a potent offense, sure, but they also boasted a pitching coach who churned out four Cy Young award winners (LaMarr Hoyt, Bob Welch, Dennis Eckersley, and Chris Carpenter).  They were managed by a man who focuses so much on pitching, he's been known to change pitchers in the middle of an at-bat.  They were going to breeze through this season and the play-offs on the strengths of their arms. 

Then they had to play the games.  Adam Wainwright blew out his arm.  The Rangers were unable to re-sign Cliff Lee.  And both teams finished the year outside the top-ten in ERA, and strikeouts.  Neither team was horrible at pitching, but neither team was great.  Yet, their offenses clicked at the right time.  The Cardinals overcame an eight-game deficit in September to take the Wild Card while the Rangers fought off the Angels and their perennially competitive ways. 

Two teams who were seemingly built on pitching, succeeded and plowed through the postseason on everything but. The Rangers put together a disappointing 4.40 ERA during the postseason so far.  The Cardinals did not fair much better.  They posted a 4.27 ERA.  Their offenses fared a bit better.  The Rangers scored a total of 55 runs.  The Cardinals scored 62. 

The second year into what many have dubbed "The Pitchers' Era" has provided a postseason with very little pitching dominance.  The World Series will likely be much of the same.  The Rangers, and Nelson Cruz specifically, are so locked in, their offense doesn't seem like it's going to let up.  The Cardinals, with the barber-shop quartet of Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, and Freese, should light up the scoreboards with regularity.  So, keep plenty of pencils on hand  if you plan to keep score.  Your scorecard will be marked up more than a high school geometry test.

I've always been amazed by what it takes to win a baseball game. There are so many pieces. It's not as simple as scoring more runs than your opponent. There's hitting, pitching, defense, and base running. Speed, focus, fielding, restraint, and analysis. Every pitch or hit or run or out is a culmination of any number of these pieces.

Wins are pieces of other aspects of the game. Last week, I took a look at run differential as a piece of winning. I adjusted the standings for run differential only. In the same spirit, I will adjust the standings based on unearned runs (runs not charged to a pitcher that resulted from some sort of error). The team with the least would lead the division, etc.

American League East:
Tampa Bay: 31
Boston: 41
New York Yankees: 46
Toronto: 50
Baltimore: 63

American League Central:
Chicago White Sox: 35
Kansas City: 41
Detroit: 52
Cleveland: 52
Minnesota: 65

American League West:
Los Angeles Angels: 39
Seattle: 42
Texas: 63
Oakland: 73

National League East:
Philadelphia: 29
Atlanta: 31
Florida: 50
New York Mets: 54
Washington: 61

National League Central:
Cincinnati: 34
Milwaukee: 51
Pittsburgh: 53
St. Louis: 64
Houston: 70

National League West:
Los Angeles: 35
Colorado: 45
Arizona: 49
San Francisco: 50
San Diego: 56

If wins were as simple as giving up the least unearned runs, things would look very different in both leagues. The Dodgers would be able to forget the disaster that is Frank McCourt and focus on the postseason. Cincinnati would be looking at a second straight division title. The Angels would be battling Seattle not Texas. Kansas City would be fighting for a play-off spot for the first time in a generation. And Tampa Bay would be outlasting the juggernauts of New York and Boston.

Unlike the run differential standings, these standing show a large deviation from the true standings. This begs the question; how much does defense actually mean?

Fielding is one of the most difficult aspects of the game to properly evaluate, but it seems clear that poor defense leads to errors. I will agree that many errors are not errors or are charged to the wrong person. There are many flaws with the error statistic, but it's what we are working with here.

Based on these adjusted standings, it would seem many teams can simply out-slug their defensive mistakes. Further evidence that too much value is applied to defense.

Home runs are exciting. They can shift momentum or bring a crowd to its feet. They can set records, and they end games. Yet there has been something so dark about home runs up until recently.

The home run race between Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa of 1998 brought fans back to baseball after so many had left following the 1994 strike. But those two also contributed to another black spot in baseball history. Steroids destroyed the competitive balance and eliminated all meaning behind home run figures.

Fortunately, baseball's much belated steps to eliminate steroids have worked This has ushered in a new era of competition. Pitching is king.

Let's take a look at home run figures in recent years.

2004 - 5,451
2005 - 5,017
2006 - 5,386
2007 - 4,957
2008 - 4,878
2009 - 5,042
2010 - 4,613
2011 - 2,106 (half way mark) 4,212 estimated total.

This leads me to one conclusion. Everyone was cheating. Now, obviously there are players who have always been clean, but one look at the numbers tells me a lot of players were using steroids.

Prior to 2005, there was no punishment for steroid use. Baseball finally implemented a testing and punishment system in the beginning of 2005, then made it more harsh at the end of 2005.

As you can see, the home run totals have been on a steady decline (except for an anomaly in 2006 and 2009) since the end of the '04 season. We are on pace for 1,000 fewer home runs in 2011 than 2004. 1,000!

Pitchers have benefited from the reduction in steroid use (I won't say elimination since players like Manny Ramirez prove arrogance can still trump penalty). The 2004 season saw an average of 716 earned runs per team. In 2010 that number was down to an average of 653 earned runs per team.

Pitchers do not have an advantage now, they are simply playing on a level playing field. And yes, I am aware plenty of pitchers were busted for steroids. But there is a big difference between a little extra juice behind a fast ball and a little extra juice off a batted ball.

We have entered into a golden era of baseball. The pitcher's era. Maybe I'm crazy, but I'll take six no-hitters in one year over a 70 home run season.