The 5.5 Hole

Why is it so hard for us to dub someone the greatest of all time? Is the characterization really based so much on opinion that a consensus cannot be reached? Perhaps. But I thunk it goes beyond that. People are afraid. They do not want to dust off a crown given to someone long ago, pass it on to the next great thing, only to have that crown yanked away and given to someone new. The debates about the greatest of all time are so historically based, not many are willing to pluck a modern player from the pool and throw them into the discussion. Instead, people will use phrases like "one of the greatest," or "the greatest of his time," or "in the discussion as one of the best."

These debates are not limited to sports. The same restrictions apply when talking about the greatest politicians, greatest writers, greatest actors, and greatest artists. Modern men and women are often compared to the old timers, but rarely vaulted to the top. DeNiro is this generation's Brando, or Mitch Albom is good, but he's no Hemmingway. Albert Pujols is one of the modern masterpieces for which most are afraid to push to the top.

The problem with naming someone the greatest of all time lies in two parts. One, how does one classify the greatest, empirically or all-encompassing. And two, how does one overcome the lore created by those who no longer play (and in many cases, no longer walk this earth)? The first problem can be overcome. The second usually cannot.

Albert Pujols is generally considered the greatest player in the game today, but change that discussion from a current focus to a historical one, and very few will jump at naming Pujols the greatest. I will not shy away from it though. There is no question in my mind that, like Michael Jordan and basketball, Albert Pujols is the greatest to ever play baseball.

His statistics speak for themselves. He is a fearless hitter, both determined and driven. Barring extensive stints on the disabled list, Pujols will break countless records. He is a shoe-in for the Hall of Fame. He makes those who doubt him look foolish.  But what sets him apart from the classics?  Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle.  The list can go on.  But isn't that the point?  If you can talk about each of those players in the same breath, what sets them apart from each other?  Pujols has had in-arguably the greatest eleven years to start a career ever.  And at 31, he has a good six to seven years of dominance ahead of him.  Even beyond that, he could still be a contributor.  No one knows for sure how long Pujols will play, but would anyone doubt he could do it into his forties?

If Pujols performs at even 75% of his career average, and does so for the next six years, he will amass 647 home runs, 1,899 RBI, and 2,961 hits.  But who really thinks he will only go six more years?  Who really thinks he can only perform at 75% of his career numbers?  But the statistics are only part of the equation. 

No one else has played the game like him.  He approaches the game knowing -- not thinking, not hoping -- but knowing he is the best.  Albert Pujols dominates like no one we have ever seen or read about.  Because honestly, isn't that the problem?  We have only read about many of the greats.  Pujols in person must be compared to Ruth on paper or film.  He must be compared to stories of Williams and Mays.  The man must stand up to the legends.  And for his entire career he has.  So, at risk of breaking unwritten rules, at the risk of crossing hidden lines, I can admit that Pujols is the greatest of all time. 

Last night, Juan Francisco of the Cincinnati Reds absolutely crushed a home run. He hit the ball 502 feet and sent it completely out of The Great American Ballpark. This isn't a park designed like San Francisco's or Pittsburgh's or Chicago's or Boston's. Balls were not meant to clear the right field bleachers in Cincinnati. Which makes Francisco's blast all the more awe-inspiring.

Moments like that provide a glimpse into an argument that I completely disagree with, but feel is worthy of mention. There is a faction of baseball fans that would turn a blind-eye to performance enhancing drugs in order to see more monster home runs like Francisco's last night. The thinking is based on an admittedly logical belief that home runs are exciting and help promote the game.

Like Tom Brady's 99 yard touchdown pass last night on Monday Night Football, big plays sell the sport. Football has the long touchdown, basketball has the slam dunk, and baseball has the home run. So why not capitalize on baseball's biggest marketing machine, home runs?

To be honest, it's a fair question, and I can understand the thought process behind ignoring steroid use if it means more excitement in baseball. But that's not what baseball is about. Baseball is not built on meaningless thrills. A dunk in a basketball game is exciting but doesn't mean much in the grand scheme. A long touchdown in football is often just as exciting as an interception. And PED-induced home runs are nothing more than illusion. Baseball is not a magic show and does not need smoke and mirrors.

A shot like Francisco's is something special because of it's rarity. Like the legendary home run Mickey Mantle hit out of Yankee Stadium, home runs are magical in their defiance of physics. The reason we can't EVER overlook PED's is to maintain the home run in its pure form. A mixture between the power of the pitch and the power of the swing.

The controversy behind PED's seems to be dying down, but when I see mammoth home runs like Francisco's I'm reminded of why we can't simply give in for entertainment purposes. Home runs are difficult to come by and can only be cheapened by artificial power.

After reading a CBS Sports article about the possibility of Lance Berkman retiring after the season is over, I got to thinking about his career.  I do not think he is a real Hall of Fame candidate, but where does he fit on the all-time list of switch-hitters?

Let's look at his standard career numbers first.  In 13 seasons he has hit .295/.408/.547 (average/on-base/slugging).  He has collected 355 home runs and 1,176 RBI's. And if those numbers weren't good enough for you, Berkman was an All-Star in 6 of his 13 seasons in the Big Leagues.

As an additional measure of Berkman's career, let's take a look at the advanced metrics.  Berkmans WAR is negatively affected by his below-average defense, but still comes in at 49.6 for his career.  His oWAR, which is exclusive of defense, puts him at 53.0. For his career, Berkman has accounted for 487 RAR (Runs Above Replacement - the number of runs a player has accounted for above a random replacement Triple-A player).  This equates to about a 0.08 RAR per at-bat.

To be fair, we'll compare Berkman against similar switch-hitters.  Rather than use players who hit for average, steal a lot of bases, or are prototypical lead-off men, we will look at power hitters.  But to make it more interesting, we'll only address the statistics and reveal the names of these players at the end.

Player A:
.297/.381./.477 - 287 home runs - 1,257 RBI's
47.3 WAR - 59.3 oWAR - 486 RAR - 0.06 RAR/AB

Player B:
.298/.421/.557 - 536 home runs - 1,509 RBI's
120.2 WAR - 122.1 oWAR - 1129 RAR - 0.14 RAR/AB

Player C:
.274/.360/.451 - 350 home runs - 1,372 RBI's
37.2 WAR - 39.3 oWAR - 366 RAR - 0.04 RAR/AB

Player D:
.287/.359/.476 - 504 home runs - 1,917 RBI's
66.7 WAR - 60.2 oWAR - 643 RAR - 0.06 RAR/AB

Player E:
.305/.403/.533 - 448 home runs - 1,547 RBI's
82.1 WAR - 84.1 oWAR - 811 RAR - 0.10 RAR/AB

Player F:
.287/.366/.489 - 314 home runs - 1,092 RBI's
63.4 WAR - 54.8 oWAR - 589 RAR - 0.08 RAR/AB

Based solely on the stats above, not name recognition, I'll rank these power hitting switch-hitters in order. 

1) Player B
2) Player E
3) Player D
4) Lance Berkman
5) Player A
6) Player F
7) Player C

Finally, let's reveal the company Lance Berkman keeps in his career as a switch-hitter with power.

1) Mickey Mantle
2) Chipper Jones
3) Eddie Murray
4) Lance Berkman
5) Bernie Williams
6) Reggie Smith
7) Chili Davis

There are obviously some great switch-hitters I left off the list.  Pete Rose is right up there with Mickey Mantle as the best all-time, and Roberto Alomar should make an appearance on any all-encompassing list, but this list was focused solely on power hitters.  With that requirement, you can see Lance Berkman has done very well for himself in his career.  Of the seven players I have him ranked with, two are in the Hall of Fame, one is a lock when he retires, and a couple are just on the outside looking in.

Again, I do not think Lance Berkman is a Hall of Famer, especially if he does in fact retire after this season (which I do not think he will, no matter what team he goes to). Yet, he is one of the best switch hitters of all-time. 

*All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference

In the Seattle twilight, Ichiro Suzuki takes batting practice. Under the late afternoon cloud cover common to the Pacific Northwest, Ichiro does everything he's always done. He approaches the game the same everyday.

Yet, this season is different. Ichiro is 37 and the natural progression of a player battling age is taking course. Many of us view athletes as immortal characters, destined to sit on a throne of physical superiority for all of history. We all seem surprised when a player proves to be human and his physical attributes decline.

As Ichiro's career slowly draws to a close, his Major League accomplishments will draw an ever-increasing critical eye. But why wait for the end of his career? Ichiro is already a Hall of Famer in my mind.

Contrary to many suggestions and ideas floating around the career of Ichiro Suzuki, his Japanese statistics can not be used as an official measure of his Hall of Fame candidacy. But that's like telling a juror to disregard an objected statement in the courtroom. The information is out there and will always stir about in the backs of voters minds.

For his career in Japan, Ichiro hit .353, collected 1,278 hits, and earned seven Gold Glove awards. Ichiro was clearly the best player in Japanese baseball at the time. And he was rewarded for it. Ichiro resides in the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame.  Yet, the question remains, will he make the MLB Hall of Fame?

First, let's look at Ichiro's career numbers with Seattle.






These are incredible numbers, but they only represent 10 + years.  Ichiro should not be penalized for being born in Japan, growing up in Japan, and starting his career in Japan.  So let's see how his nearly 11 year career numbers match-up with some of the greatest outfielders of all-time.  But I'm not going to look at just any 11-year span.  I'm going to look at a span including similar ages.
















As you can see, I selected, at random, two Hall of Fame players from each outfield position.  Ichiro out-hit every player on this list during his nearly 11 years in the league, and he still has some games left before he officially hits the 11 year mark.  His batting average is better than three of these players.  He stole more bases than four of them.  Overall, Ichiro has had 10 + years of Hall of Fame caliber statistics.


Declining statistics are normal as players age.  Ichiro has dipped from superstar to mere star.  His 11 years in the league so far have been some of the most successful in history.  At 37, he may be losing a step and dropping in average, but he could play until he is in his early 40's if he wants to.  Ichiro could play 4 more years, averaging 150 hits, and still make it to 3,000 hits in his Major League career.

However, even without joining the 3,000 hit club, Ichiro Suzuki is a proven Hall of Fame player.  When his career is over, he will be the only player in history to take up residence in the Japanese Baseball Hall of Fame and the Major League Baseball Hall of Fame.