The 5.5 Hole

It's not a normal occurrence.  The fact is, two brothers playing in the Major Leagues is simply abnormal.  Sure, it's been done before.  Brett and Aaron Boone, Chris and Tony Gwynn, Cal and Billy Ripken, Phil and Joe Niekro.  Those are just a few, but consider this; only about 0.5% of high school baseball players are ever drafted by a Major League club.  This doesn't mean they make the 25-man roster.  No, it simply means the odds of even being drafted - and in turn being given the opportunity to ride around on an old bus between cities hours apart - is a mere half a percent.  So, the odds of two brothers both playing Major League Baseball is significantly less.  The odds of two brothers hitting their 100th career home run on the same night?  Almost non-existent.

But it happened.

Justin Upton struck first.  He was facing Kyle Kendrick of the Philadelphia Phillies in the second inning of the Diamondbacks game in Philly last night.  On a 2-0 count, Justin took an 81 mph change up to left field for his 100th career home run.  B.J. hit his about an hour later.  On the first pitch he saw in the fourth inning of his game against the Orioles in Tampa Bay B.J. took a 91 mph cutter from Tommy Hunter to centerfield.

Leading a small-market team - you know, the type with the a payroll that could barely cover one player on the Yankees roster - to four play-off appearances in 14 years (including the 1998 World Series) would normally be a celebrated accomplishment.  I'd be willing to bet Pirates fans would sell their souls (or their Barry Bonds rookie cards) for such a run.  However, Kevin Towers, with the Padres ownership falling apart, was given his walking papers.  In 2009, Jeff Moorad took over as CEO of the club, and began the long process to take over ownership as well.  His first move?  Fire the General Manager that saw the club to its most prosperous period. 

This piece is not an indictment of Jeff Moorad, nor is it a second-guessing of moves made two years ago.  It is simply an examination of Towers and his highly underrated talents.  There's never been a question about Towers' reputation in baseball.  "Well respected," "a friend," and "talented" are often the terms used to describe Towers.  However, no matter what level of success he achieved through player development, trades, and free agency, Towers is rarely on anyone's short list of best GM's in the game.  He'll always be considered one of the better GM's, but has never been linked to any high-profile vacancies.

And that's just fine with the Diamondbacks.  Hired mid-season in 2010, Kevin Towers began re-shaping an organization that had little identity outside "that team that beat the Yankees."  What it seems the Diamondbacks are realizing in Towers is his unique ability to understand a clubhouse's dynamics along with player evaluation skills that allow him the buy low and sell high with the best of them.  Now, they have rewarded his talents.  The Diamondbacks extended Towers' contract through the 2014 season with a mutual option for potentially two more years. 

Towers began the quick re-building and turnaround of the Diamondbacks almost instantly.  And he didn't quit.  He ridded the team of fan favorites like Mark Reynolds and Kelly Johnson.  He introduced new favorites like Ryan Roberts (the Tat Man), and Paul Goldschmidt (the Double-A Bomber - Nickname courtesy of The 5.5 Hole).  He also backed the beloved Kirk Gibson as manager, and changed Gibson's title from interim-manager to just manager.  Towers brought new life to the Arizona pitching staff, including the addition of J.J. Putz to the bullpen.  But even before re-tooling a Diamondbacks team that had the worst bullpen in baseball, Towers was working wonders with San Diego.

On December 16, 1997, Kevin Towers sent three prospects to the Florida Marlins for a dominant pitcher named Kevin Brown.  This was part of a win-now philosophy rarely employed by Padres teams.  And it worked.  Kevin Brown went 18-7 with 257 strikeouts, and he helped the Padres win the National League pennant.

On December 20, 2005 Towers pulled off another huge pitching acquisition (although it would be over-shadowed by some guy named Adrian Gonzalez.  More on that in a bit).  The Padres were hoping to repeat as the Division Champs in 2006, so Towers went searching for starting pitching help.  The Rangers were in need of pitching help of their own.  Towers sent an injury-prone Adam Eaton, a decent Akinori Otsuka, and a prospect to Texas.  In return he got Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young.  Excluding his shortened 2010 season, Young averaged an ERA+ of 103.5.  Pretty solid considering Adam Eaton averaged an ERA+ of 72.83 and Akinori Otsuka was out of the game after the 2007 season. 

Beyond the pitching moves, which Towers became known for, he brokered some pretty huge position player deals.  Now we can talk about Adrian Gonzalez.  In what will likely go down as the greatest trade in Kevin Towers' career, former first-round pick Adrian Gonzalez came to the Padres in the Eaton and Otsuka deal.  Gonzalez didn't get much of a chance in Texas with Teixeira at first and batted just .227 during his rare time in the 2005 season.  However, once reaching the Padres, he averaged a triple-slash of .288/.374/.514.  He smacked 131 home runs in five season and made the All-Star team in 3 of his 5 season in San Diego. 

Before Gonzalez, Kevin Towers brought in many role players such as Mike Cameron, Greg Vaughn, Steve Finley, and Woody Williams.  Obviously none of these players are of the caliber mentioned above, but considering the payroll Towers was working with in San Diego, his contributions as a whole were impressive. 

So with another Division Crown under his belt, a team that should see little competition next season from anyone save for the Giant, and the added desire to move deeper into the play-offs it's no surprise the Diamondbacks extended Towers' contract.  Perhaps an extended run of postseason success will raise Towers' stature across baseball, but for now I'm sure he is happy quietly weaving success on the west.

The name speaks of confidence, power, fame, and fortune. It reminds us of royalty and glitz. While Ian Kennedy doesn't come from a long line of political powers, he has established himself as a power among National League pitchers.

"Whenever I hear 18 wins, I think of a good bullpen and a good offensive team, timely hitting, really," Kennedy said in an Associated Press article.

That sums up the belief many of the more progressive baseball statisticians have in wins. Less is controlled by the pitcher than the stat suggests. But 18 wins in Arizona is impressive. Not since Brandon Webb have the Diamondbacks been able to boast that kind of success. But let's take a closer look.

Saturday night, Kennedy and the Diamindbacks evened up their series with the Giants and extended their lead in the West back to 6 games. Ian Kennedy now has the most wins in the National League, and with only 4 losses, he has the best winning percentage. After showing so much promise in the Yankees farm system, Kennedy is proving he can be one of the best young pitchers in the league.  And he's doing it with simple development. 

Kennedy's walk per 9 innings ratio is the lowest it has been in his career at 2.36.  Leaving out his 2007 season with the Yankees when he pitched 19 innings and his 2009 season when he pitched 1 inning, Kennedy's home run per 9 innings ratio is the lowest of his career at 0.88.  He's not overpowering with strikeouts, but he is getting the job done with 167.  His FIP shows good defense behind him, and his ERA- is at 73 (meaning his ERA is 27% better than league average).


His stats speak for themselves, but what has changed?  Has he simply developed into an Ace pitcher?  Has he put everything together to make himself Cy Young caliber? 

One fairly noticeable change is the addition of a cutter.  Prior to this season, Kennedy did not throw the cutter.  This year, he is throwing it 8% of the time.  With the cutter, he now has five solid pitches.  The second most noticeable difference is the amount of pitches batters are swinging at out of the strikezone.  This season, Kennedy has his second highest percentage of pitches swung at outside of the zone at 28.6%.  (His highest was 28.9% in 2007 when he pitched only 19 innings) Finally, Kennedy is getting ahead of batters.  His first pitch strike percentage is 63.1, and batters are swinging and missing at 8.7% of his total pitches.


The chart below, courtesy of Fangraphs, shows Kennedy's velocity over the last few years.  He is clearly mixing his pitches better.  His highest velocity is higher than it has been in the past, and his lowest velocity is lower.

Ian Kennedy has done a lot to get the Diamondbacks where they are, and it is looking more and more like he will get a shot to be a number one starter in the postseason.  With a possible match-up of Kennedy vs. Halladay in the division series, fans should be treated to a pitcher's duel at its finest.  I'm sure the Yankees aren't complaining about receiving Curtis Granderson in the three-team trade that sent Kennedy to the Dbacks, but with their pitching trouble, how much could he have helped that team?

With an option year next season and an arbitration eligible year in 2013, it would be smart for the Diamondbacks to lock Ian Kennedy into a long-term deal now.  If he pitches like this next season, you can be sure an arbitrator will grant him 3-4 times the $423,000 he is making now.  But if you're living in the moment, as Diamondbacks fans should be doing, Kennedy is showing flashes of the dominance this team showed in 2001.  10 years after they won the World Series, Arizona has a clear-cut ace and a chance to go all the way again.