The 5.5 Hole

For anyone who missed it, the last two days of baseball have been the greatest in history.  In history!  More specifically, last night was the greatest single night in regular season history.  These were games 162 for the teams involved, but there was no question, last night was play-off baseball. 

Many will argue last night's place in history, but until someone gives me a scenario greater than four teams battling for the final two play-off spots with two of those teams on the verge of the greatest comebacks in history, last night ranks supreme.  You don't need a recap, but here you go.

The Rays were nine games behind the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card chase when September kicked off.  The Cardinals were eight and a half games behind the Braves in very early September.  Both of these teams went on incredible runs to pull into a Wild Card tie heading into the last game of the season.  This set up the picture-in-picture creator's dream situation.  Four games, all with play-off implications.  The Rays were facing the Yankees, the Red Sox were facing the Orioles, the Cardinals were facing the Astros, and the Braves were facing the Phillies. 

But even with the drama leading into last night, no one could have predicted the excitement that was yet to come.  The fan bases in Boston and Atlanta will never see the beauty of last night.  I understand that.  As a Padres fan who watched that team lose a one-game play-off to the Rockies in thrilling fashion in 2007, I understand the pain of defeat will always block out the euphoria of baseball greatness. 

The Cardinals quickly put pressure on the Braves by running away with their game.  And the Braves seemed to respond.  With a one-run lead going into the ninth, they had their great rookie closer, Craig Kimbrel, on the mound.  But he blew it.  The Red Sox were leading in the seventh when rain threatened to end the game.  But after a delay of about an hour and half, the game resumed with the Red Sox maintaining their lead into the ninth.  But the Red Sox dominant closer, Jonathan Papelbon, blew it.  The Rays seemed dead in the water all game.  They were losing 7-0 until the bottom of the eighth.  Then magic happened.  The Rays scored six runs, capped by an Evan Longoria three-run home run, and headed into the ninth down only one run.  In the ninth, Dan Johnson happened.  In the 12th, Evan Longoria happened again. 

I've seen the footage of Bobby Thompson's walk-off home run to clinch the pennant for the New York Giants.  They were a team that came back from 13 games back late in August.  Until now, they were the greatest comeback story in baseball history.  I've seen Kirk Gibson's famous home run with two bad knees, I've seen Pudge Fisk waving his home run fair, Joe Carter winning the World Series, and Albert Pujols keeping hope alive for the Cardinals in 2005. 

Last night's home runs by Dan Johnson and Evan Longoria were better than any of those.  I have never been as excited in my life for a single night of baseball as I was last night.  Dan Johnson kept the excitement alive.  In the bottom of the ninth, with two outs, he stepped to the plate.  Dan Johnson?  Really?  He was batting under .200 and had one tater on the year.  It seemed like he was up there just praying he didn't make the final out that ended the Rays season.  With two strikes, he showed me he was up there to keep the Rays alive.  With a laser-shot over the right field wall, Dan Johnson placed himself in history with one of the greatest, most dramatic home runs in history.  Then, Evan Longoria topped him.

In the bottom of the 12th, Evan Longoria stepped to the plate literally seconds after the crowd made it clear that Baltimore had tied the game against Boston.  As Longoria was battling Scott Proctor, the crowd once again came to life.  The Orioles had just scored the winning run against Boston.  The Rays were at very least guaranteed a one-game play-off and maybe a Wild Card berth that night.  Longoria left little time to think about the possibilities.  Four minutes after Baltimore beat Boston, Longoria connected on another laser-shot.  This one, barely clearing the left field wall, placed Longoria on a very short list.  He became only the second player in history to clinch a play-off berth with a walk-off home run on the final day of the season.  Bobby Thompson, meet Evan Longoria. 

These last two days make me wonder if the postseason can top this.  Maybe we should end the season now.  What a wonderful chain of events that lead us to the magic and drama of last night.  Some will use last night as a call to keep the play-off format as is.  Some will still claim the season is far too long.  The fact is, the play-off format is what it is this year.  If the season were shorter, we would have had a Braves team and a Red Sox team limping into the play-offs.  This type of excitement cannot happen in football or basketball.  The NFL's season does not allow for great comebacks in the standings.  The NBA allows just about every team into their postseason. 

Now that it's all over, take a breath, forget about baseball for a day, because play-offs start Friday.  And I can't wait. 

While the world (myself included) focuses on the Rays and their pursuit of the Red Sox, the Cardinals and Giants have made things very interesting in the National League. The Braves, much like the Red Sox have struggled to win in September. Since September 1st, Atlanta has gone 7-11, and their road doesn't get much easier with only the last three games of the season (against the Phillies no less) at home. That leaves six straight road games though. So let's look at both the Cardinals' and Giants' roads the rest of the way.

St. Louis:

The Cardinals have 10 games left and sit 3.5 back of the Braves. Six of those games are at home, and all but tonight's game against the Phillies are against sub-.500 teams.

With Chris Carpenter pitching like his former Cy Young self, Albert Pujols being Albert Pujols, and a top flight offense like the Cardinals have, the Braves may need to start panicking.

San Francisco:

All but dead a couple weeks ago, the Giants have resurrected themselves. All the sudden, the Giants find themselves just four back of the Braves. Most of the momentum is coming from the Kung-Fu Panda himself, Pablo Sandoval. After an up and down season, Sandoval is mashing the ball and even got himself a cycle at the end of last week. The Giants have a tough hill to climb though. Six of their last nine games are on the road, with three of those games at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks.

The Giants will need to rely on their pitching like they did in 2010. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgardner will have to carry this team if they want to return to the postseason.

The last 10 games of the season should be terrific baseball. With multiple races, each game feels like October already.

My advice to the Boston faithful: close your eyes and hope for the best. With their faces buried in their hands with silent prayers floating through their minds, the Red Sox Nation is in full panic mode. And they should be.

While the Rays are furiously banging on the Red Sox door, the Angels are politely knocking. At just 4 games back, the Angels have inserted themselves as a second layer of Wild Card competition for the Sox. The difference, of course, is the scheduling. The Rays still have three vitally important games against the team they're chasing. The Angels, probably more focused on the Rangers, have none against the Red Sox.

Over in the National League, The Beer-Makers are in a similar spot. After building what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the Central, the Brewers are suddenly faced with an entirely surmountable lead. Up 5.5 games on the Cardinals, Milwaukee probably has little to worry about, but a streak of two or three losses could make this interesting.

Beyond that, the Braves, who once seemed destined for the Wild Card, now carry just a 4 game lead over the Cardinals and a 6 game lead over the Giants. Yes, those Giants. With no head-to-head match-ups between these teams, the standings may not change much by the end of the year, but each game becomes more and more important down the stretch.

Just a month and a half ago we all had the play-off match-ups pegged. Yankees or Red Sox host the Tigers and Yankees or Red Sox on the road to Texas. Now things aren't so clear. In case you haven't noticed, the Tigers have the second best record in the A.L. all the sudden. They have moved from a sure-fire road series in the first round to potentially hosting the Red Sox or Rays. Even more surprising is the dwindling gap between the Tigers' record and the Yankees' record. They are now only 3 back in the win column for the American League's best record. Unfortunately, they are 5 back in the loss column and you can't control losses that have already happened.

What about the National League? Well, no one is catching the Phillies. But if I told you on August 1st that in mid-September the Diamondbacks would be tied for the second best record in the N.L., would you have believed me? The Phillies were all set to host Arizona in the first round, but now may be faced with hosting a Brewers club that can be as streaky as the best (or worst) of them.

A month ago, I wrote about what a second Wild Card in each league would look like this season. While in support of the idea, I wrote at the time that it would water-down the play-offs this season. That's no longer the case. How amazingly fun would a three game play-off series be between the Red Sox and Rays? How about the Braves and the Cardinals? These would be compelling match-ups worthy of postseason baseball.

In a 162 game season it's amazing to see such swings in the standings. You'd think things would normalize and start to be clear by September. Instead, thing get even more uncertain. And I love it.

With play-off spots all but locked up, let's take a look at which teams are hottest heading into the last leg of the season. First, we'll look at the contenders' records since the All-Star break.

Division leaders:

Milwaukee: 35-14 .714
Philadelphia: 31-14 .689
New York: 33-18 .647
Arizona: 31-17 .646
Detroit: 31-19 .620
Texas: 29-21 .580

Wild Card leaders:
Atlanta: 28-19 .596
Boston: 29-20 .592

Everyone knows about the Brewers' recent success. Right on their heels are the Phillies who are on pace for 105 wins. The surprising team (if you ignore their massive 7 game lead over the Giants) is the Arizona Diamondbacks. At only 3 games back of Milwaukee's second best record, the Dbacks are in a fight to avoid a 5-game series with the Phillies in the first round of the postseason.

Considering the ups and downs of the Rangers and their lead over the Angels, it shouldn't be surprising they have the worst winning percentage of all play-off contenders since the break.

Records since the All-Star break are often indicative of postseason success, but the Giants showed us all last season that the last month and a half can prove more important. Below are records since August 15th.

Division leaders:

Milwaukee: 15-6 .714
Detroit: 15-6 .714
New York: 14-7 .667
Arizona: 13-7 .650
Philadelphia: 10-7 .588
Texas: 11-10 .524

Wild Card leaders:
Atlanta: 12-6 .667
Boston: 11-6 .647

Interestingly, Milwaukee has the exact same winning percentage. They are tied with the surprising Tigers. The Rangers are the coldest team right now, followed by the Red Sox and Phillies.

Perhaps most surprising is the Yankees winning percentage verse the Red Sox winning percentage since August 15th. Granted both have had to deal with postponements due to Hurricane Irene, but the Sox and Yankees have very similar winning percentages, only .020 apart. Yet, the Yankees have overtaken Boston and now hold a two and a half lead.

The moral of this story is look out for Detroit and Milwaukee, but don't sleep on Arizona and New York. Winners still have to perform on the field, but entering the postseason on a hot streak sure will help.

This is the first year I can remember where, as of September 1st, there was literally not a Wild Card chase to found.  That is, unless you consider 7.5 games back or 8.5 games back within striking distance.  Mathematically, there is still a possibility of Atlanta or New York being overtaken for the Wild Card.  Realistically though, not a chance.

As of September 1, 2010, the A.L. Wild Card was all but wrapped up.  In the National League though, the Giants were 1.5 games back of the Phillies, and the Cardinals were 5 games back.  Using the Septemmber 1st date as our constant, let's look at the Wild Card standing back through the 2002 season:

2009: Texas was 4 games back in the American League while San Francisco was 1 back in the senior circuit.  Colorado was 3 back and Florida was 5 back.

2008: The White Sox and Twins were tied at 3 games back of Boston.  In the National League, the race wasn't as tight, but Philadelphia was still 5.5 games back of Milwaukee.

2007:  Seattle was 2 games back in the A.L. and Detroit was 3 games back.  San Diego and Arizona were tied for the Wild Card lead, and Philadelphia was 3 games back.

2006: The Twins were 0.5 games back in the American League, and Boston was 5.5 back.  In the National League there were 7 teams within 5 games of the Wild Card, including Philadelphia and Cincinnati only 0.5 games back.

2005: The Angels, the Yankees, and Oakland were all tied for the Wild Card lead while the Indians were 1 game back and the Twins were 5. In the N.L., Houston was 0.5 games back, Florida was 1.5 games back, the Mets were 2.5 games back, and the Nationals were 3 games back.

2004: The Angels were 3.5 games back of Boston and Texas was 5 games back.  San Francisco, San Diego, Florida, and Houston were at least within 3 games of the Wild Card lead.

2003: Boston was 1.5 games back of Seattle.  The National League again had 7 teams in competition.  All 7 were within 4 games of the lead, with 4 teams within 2.5 games.

2002: Seattle was 2 games back and Boston was 5 games back.  San Francisco was the lone competitor in the N.L. at 2 games back.

In the 9 seasons preceding this one, we have had compelling Wild Card races.  We have had parity.  But suddenly, in 2011, teams are either good, or they are bad.  And a lot of it has to do with pitching.  As Jason Stark wrote yesterday, pitchers are gaining ground on hitters through technology and constant study.  In addition, the reduction in steroid users has brought the game closer to a level playing field. 

Teams who have pitching are successful.  The Phillies clearly have the best rotation in baseball.  The Braves have probably the best bullpen in baseball (not to mention an aging Derek Lowe who slugged a home run yesterday).  The Brewers have a threesome of pitchers who have gelled better than any other team besides the Phillies.  The Diamondbacks have developed Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson into legitimate stars and Kennedy is even Cy Young quality.  In the American League, the Red Sox had Clay Buckholtz most of the season to go along with a rejuvenated Josh Becket and a consistent Jon Lester.  The Yankees have CC Sabathia.  The Tigers have the best pitcher in baseball.  And the Rangers have had one of the best staffs all season (they may be breaking down now, but they posted solid number up through about the middle of August).

I am a big proponent of adding another Wild Card in each league, but this season does not help my case much.  There is not a single team out there that cries out, "Hey, we deserve to be in the postseason!"  The Indians have tailed off terribly, the White Sox are inconsistent, the Giants don't have an offense, and the Cardinals don't have pitching.  If a second Wild Card team were in play in each league this season, much like artificial sweetener, it would just be fake. We'd be looking at Tampa Bay and St. Louis as the additional play-off teams.  While those teams could make some noise in the postseason, a glance at there season does not reveal a compelling reason to let them in.

In a league where only 27% of the teams make the postseason, it is easy to wish for more.  But not this year.  There's no one else deserving enough.  The Wild Card races as they are aren't even all that wild. 

If you stay up late enough, you can catch a glimpse of pure domination.  Stay tuned through a Braves game until the ninth and there is a chance you'll see the future of closers in baseball.  At just 5'10", Craig Kimbrel may not seem imposing, but as he winds up and delivers, that thought quickly fades.  Kimbrel tied the rookie saves record last night and will surely eclipse it later this week.  With 40 saves this season, he has pulled even with the mark set last year by rookie Neftali Feliz. 

Kimbrel has a chance to be part of a small group of players in baseball history.  He has never started a Major League game and has been the Braves closer all of this season.  Should Kimbrel choose to stay in the bullpen, unlike Feliz who is widely thought to be moving to the starting rotation next season, he has every opportunity to shut down offenses like only Trevor Hoffman has done before.  Mariano Rivera started 10 games in his career.  Hoffman started none.  At 23 years old, there's nothing stopping Kimbrel from breaking every closer record out there. 

This season, he has compiled a 1.72 ERA in 62.1 innings pitched.  He has struck out a head-spinning 101 batters for a K/9 ratio of 14.5. He's posted an ERA+ of 220 and made his first All-Star Game this season.

Yet, Kimbrel will only be slamming the door shut in the ninth as long as he wants to, or as long as the Braves want him to.  Feliz in Texas decided he wanted to be a starter, so the Rangers went out and picked up two players in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara who can compete for the closer job next season.  If Kimbrel were making $5 million a year, the choice would be out of Kimbrel's hands.  It would be highly unlikely that the Braves would allow their 23 year old stud pitcher to be limited to one inning of work per night.  For that kind of money, they would likely throw him into the mix and have him starting every fifth game.  But Kimbrel is only making $419,000. 

And the beauty, for the Braves, is Kimbrel was drafted by them and they have control of him for at least four years.  He doesn't become arbitration eligible until 2013 and can't become a free agent until 2016.  I'd expect to see the Braves and Kimbrel work on a long-term deal this off-season.  The Braves are in a position that many teams dream of.  They can lock Kimbrel in to a deal now, without over-paying later. 

No matter what they do, Kimbrel's highlight reel season will go down in history.  With 32 games left to play, it would not be surprising to see Kimbrel reach 50 saves.  And as the Braves enter the play-offs in a probable match-up against the offense-heavy Brewers, any lead in the ninth will need extra protection.  Kimbrel looks ready for the job. 

As the innings slip away and the Braves find themselves with a lead, don't go to sleep, don't leave the ballpark early.  Stay up for the late show.  The late late show with Craig Kimbrel.  

Last night, Dan Uggla extended his hit streak to 30 games by delivering an infield single in the 5th. Andre Ethier had a 30 game streak earlier this season, but it spanned the course of two seasons really. Ethier's streak began during the 2010 season and ended in the 2011 season.

Uggla's streak on the other hand, began with him batting under .200 earlier this season. He has raised his average to .220 and helped the Braves maintain their Wild Card lead. But the Braves aren't the story. They could have lost every game during Uggla's streak and they still wouldn't be the story. Dan Uggla is the story.

A quick look at Baseball Almanc's website shows that Uggla is one of only 45 players to reach 30 games during a hit streak. He is only 15 games away from tying the National League record for consecutive hits. However, the word "only" is cavalier when talking about hit streaks. It is hard enough to reach a 15 game hitting streak. It's a monumental task to reach 30. And it's nearly impossible to reach 40.

According to Baseball-Reference, there have been 199,371 games since 1876. If we divide that number by 40, we get the number of opportunities Major League players have had to reach a 40-game hit streak. They have had 4,984 opportunities in the history of the game. Only six have done so.

Since 1876, the official start of Major League baseball, players have reached the 40-game hit streak milestone only 0.10% of the time. You read that right. I did not mean 10%. I did not mean 1%. I meant 0.10%.

Reaching a 30-game hit streak only happens 0.60% of the time. So Uggla's feat is pretty remarkable. To put this in perspective, let's look at some of baseball's other milestones.

The 500 home run club has 25 members. The 3,000 hit club has 28 members. The 300 win club has 24 members.

While the 45 players who have reached a 30-game hit streak doesn't quite match up with the other milestones, it's pretty close. Now add five more hits to the hit streak and you're in ever rarer company. With only 15 players ever accomplishing the mark of a 35-game hit streak, that milestone should surely be included when talking about the 500 home run club, 3,000 hit club, and 300 win club.

Unfortunately, Uggla's streak is not drawing as much attention as it deserves. The streak will get a blurb here or a mention there, but the coverage is nothing like that of other potential milestones. Perhaps it's because he's still hitting only .220. Or maybe it's overshadowed by the Braves pursuit of the Wild Card. Or maybe 30 games just isn't close enough to that magical number of 56. Any one of those may be the reason, but my theory is a little more simple.

There's no club to join when you reach 30 or 35 or 40-game hit streaks. The 30-Game Hit Streak Club is too wordy. Maybe with a new name, the club can get some recognition and Dan Uggla's performance can be put in perspective. I suggest "The Hit-Streak Heroes Club," or "The Streaking Sluggers." But naming the club is probably better left up to someone smarter than me.

In the meantime, I'll be checking the box-score every morning to see if Uggla extended his streak.