The 5.5 Hole

Has there ever been a time when one man's decision had such a large effect on those around him?  Aside from politics, and keeping our conversation focused on baseball, I don't think so.  When Theo Epstein's hiring as the Chicago Cubs President is announced on Tuesday, it will create a ripple effect through baseball unlike any ever seen before. 

Long before Epstein made it known that he was planning on leaving Boston, the rumors were there.  As his club collapsed in September, the rumors turned into suggestions from some, demands from others.  Those who felt bad for Epstein going through the losing streak thought it best if he cut ties.  Those rooting for the Sox, the ones most rabid after the collapse, demanded Epstein leave town.  He had used up all his talents and charm.  Yet, no matter what anyone suggested or demanded, the Red Sox did not want Epstein to leave.  Outwardly, after it became clear that he would not be returning, unnamed Red Sox employees began to change their tune on Epstein's tenure in Boston.  He had over-spent, not developed players well, and missed on many occassions.  While much of this may be true, he also won two World Series in a town that had fell under a Championship drought unlike any baseball had seen (except in Chicago). 

As yesterday's teaser of a press release came out, all the rumors of who would be coming with Epstein, of who would replace him, of moves to fill the voids began to fall into reality.  And these moves will shake the landscape of the entire League like a nationwide earthquake.  For better or worse, the names and faces we knew, and those we didn't, will be shuffled up and sprayed all over the fields and offices of baseball like a game of 52 pick-up.  Below is a glimpse of just a few of the known (or rumored) changes we will see. 

Theo Epstein:

The wunderkind, boy-prodigy, and savior of Boston is gone.  He takes over the Chicago Cubs in a position with more control, more power, and more questions.  He will be announced as the Cubs' President Tuesday, starting a new era in Chicago.  He will also be tasked with building a front office capable of evaluating players, employees, ticket sales, and promotions.  And that starts at the GM position, leading us to Jed Hoyer.

Jed Hoyer:

The former Epstein assistant, and friend, will be announced officially on Tuesday as the new General Manager of the Cubs.  The clubs released joint statements yesterday confirming as much.  Hoyer's tenure with San Diego was much too short for an real reflection on his talent.  It is clear that he has a determination and drive for success.  He clearly understood what it meant to be the GM of a small-market club.  He made moves that would easily be classified under the buy low-sell high category.  Unfortunately, many of those moves failed to pan out.  Given slightly more resources, more time, and the expert tutelage of Theo Epstein, Hoyer may develop into one of the game's best GM's.  But he, like Epstein, will be leaving a hole at his former position. 

Josh Byrnes:

Byrnes was hired by Jeff Moorad as GM when both were in Arizona.  Moorad later began the long process of buying the San Diego Padres in installment payments.  He left Byrnes to fend for himself in Arizona and hired Jed Hoyer because, well, he needed a GM.   Byrnes had some success in Arizona, but he also had some pretty famous failures.  He help the Diamondbacks to a 2007 National League Championship appearance.  Unfortunately, he only guided the club to one more winning season during his tenure, an 82-80 season in 2008.  He was fired in the middle of the 2010 season and replaced by former Padres GM Kevin Towers.  Byrnes is considered by most to be a very intelligent executive.  He seems to know what it takes to put together a winning ballclub on paper.  In practice though, he swung and missed on as many moves and he connected with.  I will not throw the Dan Harren trade in the swing and miss category.  Look at what he did for the Angels this season.  I will, however, point out the Eric Byrnes contract.  Yes, that Eric Byrnes who doesn't even play professional baseball anymore.  Perhaps, Josh Byrnes was left in a situation beyond his control.  Perhaps, a promotion to GM under Jeff Moorad in San Diego will be beneficial.  But time will only tell.  As the Padres Executive Vice President, there has not been enough to show whether he will succeed as the Padres GM. 

Ben Cherrington:

When Theo Epstein attempted to leave Boston in 2005, Ben Cherrington and Jed Hoyer were tasked with sharing the General Manager duties.  They would be co-GM's.  As we all know, Epstein chose to return to Boston, won another World Series with the club, and left Cherrington waiting for his chance.  That chance appears to be imminent.  I have not heard anyone quote a source who said the Red Sox would go in any other direction than Cherrington as their next GM.  Cherrington has been with Boston for 14 years now, knows the system well, and has been assisting Theo Epstein every step of the way.  He is the natural choice for the position.  Cherrrington shares in many of Epstein's beliefs in player development, data analysis, and how to develop wins in general.  No one truly knows what his relationship with Larry Luchino, the Red Sox President and CEO, is and how it will further take shape as Cherrington takes the helm as GM.  However, Cherrington has had years to adapt and work alongside Luchino.  Ben Cherrington's first order of business?  Salvaging a sinking Boston ship that has seen more than its fair share of drama since September 1st.

Mike Quade:

While nothing official has been announced, or even discussed for all I know, it is widely thought that Epstein's first order of business once the front office is in place will be to find a new manager.  Many will say Quade never had a chance.  He was handed a group of players that no manager could win with.  But that's not the issue.  Quade didn't have to win with them.  He had to perform and not make Cubs fans embarrassed for rooting for these players.  He had to take differing personalities and help them mesh in the clubhouse and on the field.  A few Carlos Zambrano blow-ups, some dugout fights, a short-live retirement, and a disqualification later it has become clear that Quade is not the guy to make things come together in Chicago. 

A.J. Hinch:

The front office executive-turned Major League manager-turned lower level executive is due for a promotion if Josh Byrnes take over General Manager duties.  Hinch started with the Diamondbacks in the front office as the Director of Player Development.  In May of 2009 he was promoted from the front office to the clubhouse when he took over skipper duties.  There were questions from the start.  Hinch lacked any real coaching experience.  He was a former player, but never any type of on-field coach.  Those questions proved to be based on real concerns as Hinch suffered through two losing seasons before being dumped along with Josh Byrnes.  The Padres and Jeff Moorad quickly scooped him up and made him the Vice President of Player Development.  When Hoyer leaves, he is expected to take his assistant GM, Jason Mcleod with him.  This will open an assistant GM position that will likely be filled by Hinch.

Jason McLeod: 

The current assistant General Manager of the Padres is expected to continue his same duties under Jed Hoyer in Chicago.  The Cubs and the Padres have already reached a compensation and "pilfering" agreement in which the Cubs agree to leave the rest of the Padres front office alone.  McLeod is most notable for his scouting ability.  While under Epstein and Hoyer in Boston he found Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz,  Jed Lowrie, and Jacoby Ellsbury.  While it's still too early to tell how his drafts in San Diego will pan out, many consider the Padres farm system to be one of the best.  McLeod will be missed in San Diego, but his replacement, A.J. Hinch, has a knack for developing talent. 

John Lackey:

So far, Lackey's potential move to San Diego is only rumored.  It seemed certain prior to talks with the Cubs and Red Sox fell apart regarding Epstein and compensation.  If the Red Sox do eat the majority of Lackey's contract and ship him off to San Diego, Lackey will just be another domino to fall.  Lackey is much maligned in Boston right now.  He may benefit from a reunion with Bud Black, the former Angels pitching coach while Lackey pitched in Los Angeles.  A pitcher-friendly ballpark would help him return to form much like it has for Aaron Harang and Jon Garland.

The Rest:

Andrew Friedman of Tampa Bay will, by all accounts, remain with Tampa now that the Cubs have just about figured out their entire front office.  Friedman was considered by some and even better choice than Epstein for GM.  However, it appears the Rays will get to keep the man who has led them to the postseason three of the last four years with a payroll that ranked in the bottom fourth of all of baseball.  

The Yankees will hold on to Brian Cashman who was rumored for the Cubs job as well.  The club and Cashman still seem to have a good relationship, so his remaining time in New York should not be overshadowed by his connection to the Cubs' GM search. 

The lower-level executives of both the Padres front office and the Red Sox front office will still need to be worked out.  For example, A.J. Hinch will need to be replaced.  Ben Cherrington and other will need to be replaced in Boston.

The amount of job openings and employee moves generated by one man's decision are astounding.  The pressure on Epstein to win in Chicago will be huge, while the pressure on Cherrington in Boston might actually lighten.  Byrnes will feel little pressure to start in San Diego.  Overall, the moves do not seem bad for baseball.  The talent was not funneled into one team, but spread out across the League and across the nation.  Epstein's move will forever be remembers as one of, if not the biggest, ripple-effect move in baseball history.

You probably haven't noticed him. He's probably slipped past your radar. His success doesn't matter to you. He plays for the San Diego Padres, a team that has (at the time of this article) lost nine straight games. He is Jesus Guzman, and his career is fascinating.

Guzman was drafted by the Mariners in 2000 as a Venezuelan teen. In 2004, he came to the states and played high-A ball in the Mariners organization before being promoted to AA. After two successful seasons there, he was dumped back down to single-A. The next season, he found himself traded to the Athletics organization. Guzman progressed through AA, AAA, and the rookie league that season then, in 2009 was sent across the Bay to San Francisco. Finally, after six seasons in the Minor Leagues, Guzman made it to the show. In limited action, 12 games to be exact, he was unimpressive and sent back to AAA. The Giants outrighted him to AAA for good in 2010 so he was free to sign elsewhere. Which he did. In November of 2010, Guzman signed with the Padres. By midway through 2011, he was part of the big league club.

But that's just the background to his story. The true story is that of a successful Minor Leaguer who was never really given a shot in the big leagues. This is a story of a player who saw action in 756 Minor League games, came to the plate 3,326 times, and posted a career Minor League triple slash of .305/.373/.480. Guzman's is the strange story of successful ball player with nowhere to play.

Teams seemed to be afraid of his defense. They placed less value on him as a player because of his .949 career Minor League fielding percentage. They all failed to realize his offense overcame his defense. They all failed to place the right value on him, and they let him wallow in the Minor Leagues his entire career. But the Padres saw something else.

The Padres saw a player with a high on-base percentage and a 1.82 strikeout-to-walk ratio. They brought him up to the Show this season and all Guzman has done is rake. He is currently hitting .326/.379/.516. In only 206 plate appearances this season, Guzman has accounted for 15 Runs Above Replacement and can boast a 1.6 WAR.

To make things better for the Padres, Guzman is working on a Minor League contract. They have a chance to lock up Cameron Maybin and Jesus Guzman to long-term deals. Guzman, when valued properly, is the type of player you can build a team around. He is a bright spot in a dark lonely season mostly spent in the cellar.

Yesterday was a special day for the San Diego Padres, Trevor Hoffman, and baseball. Yet, baseball failed to notice. Like missing its own surprise party, ignoring subtle hints, or getting distracted by a new toy, baseball completely forgot what a special day yesterday was. Perception is reality, but that's not fair or true. Reality is reality. And Trevor Hoffman deserves better from the game he loved and dominated for so long.

Yesterday, in a ceremony that delayed the start of the game by almost an hour, Trevor Hoffman's number 51 jersey was retired. Enshrined with greats like Dave Winfield, Steve Garvey, Randy Jones, and Tony Gwynn, the number 51 will be forever off-limits to anyone donning the Friars' colors. The ceremony was both touching, sad, happy, and inspiring. It reminded San Diego of Trevor Time. It reminded the city of the event that was watching Hoffman come jogging to the mound from centerfield, the tolling of Hell's Bells blasting through the sound system. But baseball across the country failed to notice.

The retirement ceremony was conspicuously missing from the top stories of many major baseball websites. ESPN did not even mention it in their top stories. Sports Illustrated gave it a four-word headline buried under stories of Pujols' 31st home run, the Tigers win, and A-Rod's return. Only Yahoo Sports gave the ceremony any sort of top story recognition. And it's all because Hoffman is perceived as second best if that.

Mariano Rivera has a decent shot at breaking Hoffman's all-time saves record this season. Rivera has pitched in a career's worth more play-off games than Hoffman. Rivera has always performed on the biggest stage. Yet Hoffman's accomplishments should not be forgotten and diminished because of this. Instead, they should be viewed in a different light.

On a team known more for futility than success, Trevor Hoffman managed to rack up 552 saves in 16 seasons. He averaged 34.5 saves per season. He was top-ten is MVP voting twice and top-ten in Cy Young voting 4 times. He was an All-Star 7 times. But most importantly, Trevor Hoffman redefined what it meant to be a closer. The passion and energy he brought to every appearance was unparalleled. When John Smoltz moved to the closer role after years of starting pitching, he adopted a Hoffman-like entrance utilizing Metalica's Enter Sandman rather than AC/DC's Hell's Bells. Since then, the sight of a closer entering the game from the bullpen has become a rock concert-like event.

But atmosphere, surface level success, and records may not be enough. With Rivera as his true competition (and both will likely make the Hall of Fame at some point), a statistical comparison is in order.

ERA: 2.87 for Hoffman, 2.23 for Rivera.
IP: 1,089.1 for Hoffman, 1,198 for Rivera.
SO: 1,133 for Hoffman, 1,095 for Rivera.
K/9: 9.63 for Hoffman, 8.23 for Rivera.
BABIP: .265 for Hoffman, .262 for Rivera.
WAR: 38.0 for Hoffman, 55 for Rivera.
WAR/GM: 0.04 for Hoffman, 0.05 for Rivera.
FIP: 4.13 for Hoffman, 2.77 for Rivera.

As you can see, Rivera is better in almost every category, but Hoffman is very close. The only categories in which Rivera dominates is WAR and FIP. Yet the question lingers, if most people consider Rivera a lock for the Hall of Fame and Hoffman's numbers aren't too far off, why doesn't Hoffman get a little more respect from the baseball community when he receives the highest honor a team can bestow upon a player?

Trevor Hoffman failed to perform when the lights were brightest, a blown save in the World Series, a blown save in the All-Star Game, a blown save to clinch the division, and a blown save in a one-game play-off, but he was also not given many opportunities to redeem himself. Playing for the Padres cost Hoffman the opportunity to consistently perform in the postseason.

But even still, he did what no one before him had ever done. Doesn't that at very least deserve a little recognition, perhaps even celebration, outside of San Diego when his number is retired?

Apparently the world is going to end in 2012. Something about calendars, and Mayans, and maybe giant Arks. Could be a John Cusak movie, I'm not sure, but hopefully it doesn't happen before we get to see the results of the Padres off-season.

With the news from Padres brass that they intend to increase payroll and hope to operate at a consistent average of $70 million within a couple years, it's easy to get excited about what might be. Regardless of General Manager Jed Hoyer's mantra of "building within," the Padres will be active in the off-season and should be pulling in talent from outside their minor league system. With that said, I thought I'd take a look at the team and address some of the most important moves that need to be made.

1) Cameron Maybin

Currently making $429,000 and signed through the end if this year, the Padres are in a perfect position to extend Maybin's contract, throw a little money at him, and lock him into a long-term deal. My suggestion: 5 years, $20 million. A tiered contract would work best with the Padres plan. For example, offer Maybin $2 million for 2012, $3.5 million for 2013, $4.5 million for 2014, $4.5 million for 2015, and $5.5 million for 2016.

Maybin's mix of speed and defense will serve him well for years to come at Petco Park. He has the makings of a constant .280/.350/.400 hitter.

2) First Base

If Anthony Rizzo is the first baseman of the future, bring him up and leave him in the show for long enough to evaluate him as a Major League talent. Though his numbers at Triple-A Tucson should be largely discredited due to the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League. If he's not the guy for the Padres, they need to go out and get someone. The problem is, the only viable free-agent candidate at first base would be Xavier Nady. With him making only $1.75 million during this injury-shortened 2011 season, the Padres may be able to scoop him up in a short-term, discounted deal. I'd imagine something like two years, $3.5 million could get the deal done. A second time in a Padres uniform may do both the Pads and Nady well.

3) Pitching

To have a chance at contention, the Padres pitching staff will need to continue on the path carved the last few years, and will likely need to improve even more. Tim Stauffer is a quality start machine, so I expect the Padres to offer arbitration or sign him to a long-term deal this off-season. But they will still need to grab a free agent arm this off-season.

After reading a suggestion on Fangraphs.com about Edwin Jackson to the Padres, I began analyzing the possible move. Jackson has decent stuff and would benefit from pitching in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, but he is making $6.275 million in 2011 with Scott Boras as his agent. I don't see Jackson and Boras taking a pay-cut, so if the Padres went this route, they'd need to shell out anywhere from $6.275 million to $7 million a year for him. Still, the move could be worth it. Jackson, even when his control was way off, managed a no-hitter with Detroit.

Then there's Heath Bell. Understandably, the team doesn't want to lock up a large percentage of payroll on a reliever. But to have any chance at competing in the near future, the club needs to maintain their shut down bullpen. Bell brings a number one closer talent to the park every game. He's willing to take a discount to stay with the club. I'm not sure what that discount is, but if we are talking $10 million a year, it's worth consideration. Bell can groom Gregerson, who I think is the heir apparent for the closer role. While doing so, he will provide that much needed insurance for the onslaught of close games the Padres will surely be in if they are competing for first.

That's about $20 million out of the supposed $50 million the Padres plan to spend next year. And those are the big ones. I'll leave the smaller contracts up to Jed Hoyer.

Regardless of what happens, this should be one of the most active off-seasons for the Padres in a long time.

"They are who we thought they were!" One of the greatest and easily usable quotes in sports history came from former Arizona Cardinals head coach Dennis Green. The quote applies to so many things.

If your team gets knocked around and blown out by a better team, "they are who you thought they were." If you think you have a shot against a former Cy Young winner because he's coming off an injury, only to be dominated as usual, "he was who you thought he was." And if you bring in a former closer who has shown more of a propensity for giving up runs than preserving them of late with the hopes that he can be molded into a solid set-up man, only to melt down in his first real opportunity, "he is who you thought he was."

Forgive the possible run-on sentence above, and the roundabout way of getting to the point that Chad Qualls is not a fit for an 8th inning hold man. He proved this last night. While there will be more opportunity for redemption in Qualls' future, he was promoted and put into the set-up role because he's supposed to bridge the gap from starter/reliever to Heath Bell.

Qualls spent last season in Arizona posting an 8.29 ERA before being shipped to Tampa and posting a 5.57 ERA to close out the season. Qualls struggled all of last season after having himself a decent career up to that point. Therefore, the Padres thought he could return to form in the spacious, pitcher-friendly confines of Petco Park. Unfortunately, they passed up a solid candidate for set-up man when they chose to promote Qualls in the wake of Mike Adams' trade.

Luke Gregerson, while experimenting with mustache choices, has quietly been putting together a nice resume for the Padres. Since his call-up in 2009, Gregerson is sitting on a 3.18 ERA, a 1.097 WHIP, and 9 K's per 9 innings. He's also only 27 and making $448,000 this season. He's not eligible for free agency until 2015, and he has three arbitration years ahead of him unless his contract is re-worked.

Qualls, on the other hand, Is going to be 33 in a few days and is making $2.55 Million this season with a club option for 2012.

Qualls is still an above average pitcher. For his career, he has 3.7 WAR. Gregerson, through three seasons, has a 1.7 WAR. However, Gregerson has not yet had the opportunity to be a set-up man, let alone a closer. Qualls has held both positions.

It would be easy to write this off as a rant in response to last night's bullpen meltdown, but the numbers, both statistical and contractual, support Gregerson in the set-up role over Qualls.

Qualls will do well in San Diego. Most pitchers who come here show better numbers than their previous career stops. But Qualls is who we thought he was and is better served as a 7th inning guy or long-relief man.

The boys and girls of Pittsburgh are talking about math and science today. They're talking about new backpacks and pencils and notebooks and calculators. They're talking about the upcoming school year with anticipation and wonder. They've forgotten how relieved they were when school had ended just a few months ago.

Almost as quickly as they have forgotten about their Pirates and contention, or their Pirates and winning.

The men of Pittsburgh have turned their attention to the Steelers. Mini camp and preseason has replaced pennant races and hopes of a postseason.

The sun is setting quickly on the Pirates season, and I'm ready to admit it. Less than a week ago I was defending the Pirates and their little slump. But now they are crumpling under the weight of 10-straight losses. They are 10 games out of first place when two weeks ago they were in first.

The Pirates may recover, and they may finish over .500. However, they 5 games under and coming off being swept by the Padres. Not only were they swept, but they gave up 35 runs in three games. This does not look like the same team scratching out wins. Instead, it looks like the Pirates of old.

It's sad for the city of Pittsburgh. To get so close only to see it washed away.  The promise of big things, buying at the trade deadline, and nationally televised games were all for not.  That is, unless Pittsburgh learns from this.

A quick look at the stands over the weekend showed a dramatic increase in attendance over years past.  For a three-game set against the last place Padres, Pirates fans packed the park.  The Pirates ownership cannot expect to see turnouts like that continue over the next few years if they do not remain competitive.  Give the fans something to cheer about so that they want to come out.  The Pirate's organization is faced with a fork in the road.  One road leads towards fielding a consistently competitive ball club, the other leads towards more losing seasons and less fans.  Which fork they take is anyone's guess, but as the sun sets on this once promising season for the Pirates, I hope it's the former.  

Bruce Bochy's head is enormous. He wears a cap size larger than an 8. That's big. But he's carrying a lot of baseball knowledge under that cap, so it's fair.

Since becoming a manager, Bochy has compiled a near-.500 record at 1336-1349. Early next season, he should eclipse the .500 mark with the Giants. This begs the question, what separates Bochy's career with San Diego and his career with San Francisco?

Bochy is 24 games under .500 for his career with the Padres, but 11 games over with the Giants. He is a baseball guy and a great strategist, but perhaps he was being held back in San Diego. Let's take a look at payroll figures for Bochy's tenure in San Diego compared to San Francisco.

1995 Padres - $25,962,334
1996 Padres - $27,814,172*
1997 Padres - $36,401,672
1998 Padres - $46,110,500**
1999 Padres - $40,801,513
2000 Padres - $40,099,333
2001 Padres - $38,702,833
2002 Padres - $33,055,000
2003 Padres - $33,610,000
2004 Padres - $51,534,833***
2005 Padres - $57,073,833*
2006 Padres - $64,396,141*


Now let's look at the Giants:

2007 Giants - $80,352,837
2008 Giants - $70,934,000
2009 Giants - $77,063,700***
2010 Giants - $98,186,333**


* Division Title (the Giants are currently in 1st place this season)
**NL Pennant (note: the Giants went on to win the World Series in 2010)
***Winning Season

Bochy was given an average salary of $41,296,597 in San Diego. And as shown by his NL Pennant year and final three winning seasons, a little bit larger payroll allowed him to navigate the team to success.

So far in San Francisco, Bochy has been allowed an average salary of $81,634,218. Almost double his average payroll with the Padres.

I've always been a proponent of playing small ball, building around defense and pitching, and infusing youth into the lineup. I've always felt that with the right combination, payroll should not matter much. However, there are certain barriers to success, and an absurdly low payroll is one of them.

Bruce Bochy has proven he is a good manager. To spend 12 seasons in San Diego with an average payroll hovering around $41 million, and to still only finish 24 games under .500 is impressive. Imagine what he could have done with an average payroll of $50 million. We will never know, but we get to watch his mind at work with less limitations and more freedom now in San Francisco. As the only manager in San Francisco history to win a World Series, I think he's proven spending a little more money works when you have the right skipper.

What is the reward for pledging yourself to a team that plays more losing ball than good?  Heartache maybe?  Frustration?  Anger?

All might be good descriptions of the emotions felt by many Padres fans, but I feel something else.  Pride.  To live and die with a team that is more apt to lose 90 games than win 90 takes patience and heart.  To suffer through the years of play-off drought takes dedication.  And to live and breath the success takes nothing but an acknowledgement that you were there all along.

After digging out from losing season after losing season, I got my first taste of Padres success in 1998.  I watched that team come dangerously close to winning 100 games.  I watched Andy Ashby throw a 75-pitch complete game.  I watched Greg Vaughn slug 50 home runs.  And through it all, I imagined the feeling was much more special than say a Yankees fan feels watching his team win, night in and night out.  When you've been deprived of something so long, you savor it to the fullest when it is reached.  After years without sunshine, a man wouldn't complain about the heat on a beautiful summer day.  After weeks without water, a dehydrated person doesn't take the water and ask for lemon.  And after years without winning, a Padres fan doesn't take it for granted.

The Padres made it all the way to the World Series in 1998 only to be swept by the (damn) Yankees.  I found myself bearing witness to my first fire sale as a Padres fan after that season, and I had to wait seven long years to taste the thirst quenching beauty of play-off baseball again.

I can remember being glued to the TV screen every game of the 2005 season, wondering if it was all going to fall apart, wondering if some team would step up, knock the Padres off their perch, and reclaim their place as rightful N.L. West Champions.  But it didn't happen.  The Padres worked a tepid 82-80 record to a division crown, and I loved every second of it.  I relished every win, every play, and every second.  I bought my play-off tickets the minute they went on sale, and cheered down to the final out.  The whole time, I soaked in the moments.  Standing outside Petco Park before the very first play-off game ever played in that stadium was magical.  The frenzy of the fans around me was palpable.  The Padres were swept, but it didn't matter.  They had shown signs of success and rewarded my faith with a play-off berth.

The 2006 season saw the Padres post back-to-back division titles for the first time in team history, and I was back at the park for games one and two, both losses.  I spent the entire season not sure I was watching the same club I had grown to know and love.  This was a decent team that could clearly compete.  As they reached the stretch run of the season, I felt my heart beating in my throat every second of every play.  I felt the sweat at the tips of my fingertips, the anticipation building with every out.  I felt the joys of the wins and the pains of the losses, and I loved every bit of it.

With two winning seasons under their belts, I came into the 2007 season expecting success.  Not necessarily a division win, but I expected a competitive team.  And that's what I got.  As the season drew on, it became obvious the Padres were not going to win the division, but the Wild Card looked to be within their sights.  Yet, I watched as the Padres squandered a two game lead in the Wild Card standings with two to play.  And then I watched the most amazing, heartbreaking game I've ever seen in my life.

Trailing 6-5 in the top of the 8th, the Padres managed a run to tie the game.  It went into to extra innings and I remember watching the game in the bedroom of my rented house.  My roommates were focused on other things like drinking beer and chasing girls.  I was focused on every pitch, swing, hit, and run.  In the top of the 13th, Scott Hairston blasted a no-doubter of a home run and I was off my feet leaping for joy before the ball even made it to the stands.  Trevor Hoffman in the bullpen, a two-run lead, game over.  The goosebumps on my arms felt like they were literally going to blast off my skin and dance around the room with me.

Then the bottom of the 13th happened.  Trevor came in, got one out, gave up three hits and one walk, and allowed the Rockies to score 3 and win the game.  Like it was yesterday, I can still feel the pain of that game in my gut.  I fell to my knees when the winning run scored.  I lowered my head, and I felt like I was going to throw up.  It took hours for me to fall asleep that night and the depression carried over to the next day.  The pain I felt lasted long into the play-offs that year as I watched the Rockies march their way to a World Series berth.

But I can't help but feel that passion and heartache and joy and pain came only because I had endured.  I had endured the losses, endured the fire sales, endured the "small-market" tag, and endured the payroll constraints.  My dedication and continued belief in a team that loses more than it wins allows me to appreciate the good things that much more.

So I think about this nearly unbearable season and the impending trade of Heath Bell, and I remember it was just last year that the Padres again flashed brilliance and rewarded my faith with their first 90-win season since 1998.  I can struggle through this year's season with the belief and understanding that success will come again.  I don't know when that will be, but I know it will come.