The 5.5 Hole

Jose Valverde's season is hanging on by a thread. The Tigers season is hanging on by a thread. This all because of an 11th inning meltdown in which Valverde allowed a 4-spot to the Texas Rangers. Many casual fans argue that a closer shouldn't be brought in to the game in a non-save situation, while many writers and analysts argue that theory is completely bogus. What's the truth?

This is a debate based as much in opinion as in fact. Let's start from the opinion side of things and see if we can get an idea as to which side this debate may be leaning. Fans argue that the closer role (i.e. coming into the ninth inning with a slim lead and slamming the door) is a pressure cooker type role that can't be duplicated in any other in-game scenario. Thus, as the theory goes, when a closer is thrust into a non-save situation the mentality of said closer is different. This is likely not a conscious choice by the closer to go in with a different mindset, but the theory argues it happens nonetheless. If you flat out disagree with this theory, I caution you. It may hold more weight than many give it credit.

Take, for example, two separate projects at work. One has a tight deadline with a lot riding on it. The other is not nearly as important, has a longer deadline, but still needs to get done. When working on the stressful, tight deadline project, your focus and mentality will probably be much different than when working on the project with a lengthier timeline. Now imagine your only job is a continuous slew of important projects with tight deadlines and lots of stress, but you have just been asked to work on the other type of project. Think there'd be a change in your approach whether you mean there to be or not?

Writers and baseball analysts assume that a pitcher is a pitcher. If they make their pitches, the scenario shouldn't matter. That's sound logic too. Forget the inning. Forget the score. Any pitcher, at any time can succeed as long as he makes the right pitches. Yet, is it really that simple? The mental aspect to playing baseball is fascinating and often overlooked.

Let's take Jose Valverde for example. As of August 18, 2011, Jose Valverde's stats in save situations looked like this:

35/35 in saves, 0.51 ERA, 0.971 WHIP.

In non-save situations?

21 games, 2-4 record, 17 runs, 6.88 ERA, 1.80 WHIP.

Pretty remarkable difference, right? Yet, these numbers are so often brushed aside it's startling. The argument many will make is, who would you rather have, your closer or someone else? Well, let's look at some other closers around the league. These are all career numbers as published by The Closer News.

Heath Bell:
Save situation - 2.13 ERA/1.05 WHIP
Non-save situation - 3.60 ERA/1.53 WHIP

Brian Wilson:
Save situation - 2.63 ERA/1.43 WHIP
Non-save situation - 4.50 ERA/1.60 WHIP

Jonathan Papelbon:
Save situation - 2.08 ERA/0.86 WHIP
Non-save situation - 4.03 ERA/1.03 WHIP

J.J. Putz:
Save situation - 2.08 ERA/0.98 WHIP
Non-save situation - 4.91 ERA/1.00 WHIP

These are just a few closers around the league, but the change in performance is drastic. I understand that there are sure to be closers who perform the same in save situations and non-save situations as there are also probably closers who perform better in save situations, but when you have so many closers who clearly struggle in non-save situations, it's time to stop brushing off the possibility that closers should not be brought in in non-save situations.

After all is said and done here, I give the edge to fan theory. Writers and analysts can be as condescending as they'd like when shooting down these theories, but fact supports at least a closer look.

I love baseball. I love do-or-die elimination games, extra innings, and pitcher's duels. I love clutch hits, great plays, and winning runs.

From the last day of the season on, baseball has been absolutely fantastic. The greatest single regular season day in baseball history has been followed up with division series' in both leagues for the ages. There were no sweeps, no easy advancements. The Rays and the Rangers were the only series not to go the full five games. But each game was intense and exciting. Two games in that series came down to some bottom of the ninth drama, and three out of the four games were decided by 2 runs or less. And that was just the series that DIDN'T end in a game five matchup.

The Yankees got the matchup they wanted in the Division Series when they hosted the Tigers, but quickly found themselves down two games to one. The juggernaut Yankees threw CC Sabathia in Game One and the Tigers threw the soon-to-be unanimous Cy Young pick Justin Verlander. They both got through one inning, then the rain came and erased a matchup most of the baseball world had been anticipating from the second the matchups were announced.

With the series knotted up at one game a piece, we finally got that matchup we had been looking forward to so much. But the offense stole the show. The game ended with a Tigers 5-4 win and pushed the Yankees to the brink of elimination with perhaps their worst pitcher slated to start Game Four.

AJ Burnett did start Game Four despite the collective groans from all of New York City. And he out-pitched even what he could have expected. A solo blast was all he gave up, and he powered the Yankees to a Game Five at home. And what a Game Five it was. Every pitch was important. Every pitch had fans on the edges of their seats. Just as the Tigers looked like they were going to pull away, the Yankees pulled to within one and were still threatening.

Joaquin Benoit threw some of the most exciting pitches anyone will ever get in a ball game. One missed spot could have spelled the end to the Tigers season, but he located them all, and calmly got the Tigers out of the inning, bridging the gap to Jose Valverde who hadn't blown a save all season long. And that trend continued as he closed out the series with a strikeout of Alex Rodriguez.

If that excitement was too much for you, grab yourself a pace-maker because there were two more Game Fives left to play.

The Brewers and the Diamondbacks met in the division series like twins separated at birth. These teams both have new managers, both had turned their seasons around, and both got surprisingly dominant pitching all season long. For every Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder there was a Justin Upton and Paul Goldschmidt. For every Zach Greinke and Yovani Gallardo, there was an Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson.

And when these twins, separated at birth, met this postseason, they showed fans the love and passion only baseball can bring. Nyjer Morgan was the fuel that powered a Brewers team full of young, dedicated players. Kirk Gibson's attitude shoved dysfunctional teammates together and turned the Diamondbacks into one of the closest clubhouses in baseball. All this translated to greatness on the field. Both the Brewers fans and the Diamondbacks fans matched each other's intensity. And like any great teams, the home games were won by the home teams.

When Game Five arrived, the fans outside of Arizona and Wisconsin didn't want the series to end. And it seemed the teams didn't either. The Diamondbacks jumped out to an early lead, then the Brewers leap-frogged in front. After squandering a bases-loaded situation in the eighth, it looked like the Diamondbacks season would be coming to an end, but they roared back to tie it in the ninth. But the never-say-die attitude and the power drawn from the passionate Brewers fans would not allow them to lose. In the bottom of the tenth the Brewers scored and propelled themselves to their first play-off series win since 1982.

Finally, the Cardinals and Phillies capped off the slew of Game Fives.

After the Cardinals were out-scored 14-3 in the last four innings of Game One and first three innings of Game Two combined, it would have been easy for the Cardinals to lay down and act as the welcome mat to the League Championship Series for the Phillies. But they didn't. The Cardinals stormed back and won Game Two.

Back in St. Louis, the Phillies took Game Three and pushed the Cardinals to the brink of elimination. But with the help of a newly dubbed "rally squirrel" who raced across home plate just as Roy Oswalt was delivering his pitch, the Cardinals forced Game Five.

Game Five was a matchup of old friends and Cy Young winners. Both Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter were pitching on full rest and had been at the tops of their games down the final stretch of the season. The pitting of Halladay against Carpenter was like something from a movie script. These two were good friends coming up through the Blue Jays organization and both always wanted to get better. Well, they did and they faced each other in this incredible elimination game.

Halladay made two mistakes in the first inning but was dominant throughout the rest of his eight innings. On any other night an eight inning, one run performance would likely have given the Phillies the win, but Chris Carpenter was better. Carpenter tossed a three-hit, complete game shut-out. His performance can be classified as one of the best in postseason history. Now, the Cardinals move on to face the Brewers.

This postseason has lived up to everything play-off baseball should be. Friends facing each other for the right to keep playing, clutch home runs when a team seems down and out, and payrolls that don't rank in the top-five in all of baseball.

Bring on the League Championship Series.

Someone impersonating AJ Burnett was pitching for the Yankees last night. Well, to be fair AJ Burnett was clearly pitching in the first inning when wildness allowed the bases to be loaded. Curtis Granderson saved him from a bases-clearing double. But after that, Burnett seemed like a different pitcher.

Through 5 2/3 innings, Burnett allowed just a solo home run and 4 hits. Coming into this game, Burnett's postseason road ERA was 10.50. Last night it was 1.59. While it was only one start, it was the biggest start of AJ Burnett's Yankee career. Pitching in an elimination game on the road, Burnett had the confidence of very few outside the Yankee clubhouse. But he put those fears to bed with a strong performance.

Burnett may or may not be able to replicate this performance if the Yankees advance to the ALCS, but he is the reason they even have chance to advance. His performance, and the Yankees offense, forced game 5 in the Bronx.

Ivan Nova will likely go on three days rest for the Yankees. Nova in game 5 yields much more confidence than Burnett in game 4, but without Burnett, Nova never would have had a shot to close it out.

My advice to the Boston faithful: close your eyes and hope for the best. With their faces buried in their hands with silent prayers floating through their minds, the Red Sox Nation is in full panic mode. And they should be.

While the Rays are furiously banging on the Red Sox door, the Angels are politely knocking. At just 4 games back, the Angels have inserted themselves as a second layer of Wild Card competition for the Sox. The difference, of course, is the scheduling. The Rays still have three vitally important games against the team they're chasing. The Angels, probably more focused on the Rangers, have none against the Red Sox.

Over in the National League, The Beer-Makers are in a similar spot. After building what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the Central, the Brewers are suddenly faced with an entirely surmountable lead. Up 5.5 games on the Cardinals, Milwaukee probably has little to worry about, but a streak of two or three losses could make this interesting.

Beyond that, the Braves, who once seemed destined for the Wild Card, now carry just a 4 game lead over the Cardinals and a 6 game lead over the Giants. Yes, those Giants. With no head-to-head match-ups between these teams, the standings may not change much by the end of the year, but each game becomes more and more important down the stretch.

Just a month and a half ago we all had the play-off match-ups pegged. Yankees or Red Sox host the Tigers and Yankees or Red Sox on the road to Texas. Now things aren't so clear. In case you haven't noticed, the Tigers have the second best record in the A.L. all the sudden. They have moved from a sure-fire road series in the first round to potentially hosting the Red Sox or Rays. Even more surprising is the dwindling gap between the Tigers' record and the Yankees' record. They are now only 3 back in the win column for the American League's best record. Unfortunately, they are 5 back in the loss column and you can't control losses that have already happened.

What about the National League? Well, no one is catching the Phillies. But if I told you on August 1st that in mid-September the Diamondbacks would be tied for the second best record in the N.L., would you have believed me? The Phillies were all set to host Arizona in the first round, but now may be faced with hosting a Brewers club that can be as streaky as the best (or worst) of them.

A month ago, I wrote about what a second Wild Card in each league would look like this season. While in support of the idea, I wrote at the time that it would water-down the play-offs this season. That's no longer the case. How amazingly fun would a three game play-off series be between the Red Sox and Rays? How about the Braves and the Cardinals? These would be compelling match-ups worthy of postseason baseball.

In a 162 game season it's amazing to see such swings in the standings. You'd think things would normalize and start to be clear by September. Instead, thing get even more uncertain. And I love it.

With play-off spots all but locked up, let's take a look at which teams are hottest heading into the last leg of the season. First, we'll look at the contenders' records since the All-Star break.

Division leaders:

Milwaukee: 35-14 .714
Philadelphia: 31-14 .689
New York: 33-18 .647
Arizona: 31-17 .646
Detroit: 31-19 .620
Texas: 29-21 .580

Wild Card leaders:
Atlanta: 28-19 .596
Boston: 29-20 .592

Everyone knows about the Brewers' recent success. Right on their heels are the Phillies who are on pace for 105 wins. The surprising team (if you ignore their massive 7 game lead over the Giants) is the Arizona Diamondbacks. At only 3 games back of Milwaukee's second best record, the Dbacks are in a fight to avoid a 5-game series with the Phillies in the first round of the postseason.

Considering the ups and downs of the Rangers and their lead over the Angels, it shouldn't be surprising they have the worst winning percentage of all play-off contenders since the break.

Records since the All-Star break are often indicative of postseason success, but the Giants showed us all last season that the last month and a half can prove more important. Below are records since August 15th.

Division leaders:

Milwaukee: 15-6 .714
Detroit: 15-6 .714
New York: 14-7 .667
Arizona: 13-7 .650
Philadelphia: 10-7 .588
Texas: 11-10 .524

Wild Card leaders:
Atlanta: 12-6 .667
Boston: 11-6 .647

Interestingly, Milwaukee has the exact same winning percentage. They are tied with the surprising Tigers. The Rangers are the coldest team right now, followed by the Red Sox and Phillies.

Perhaps most surprising is the Yankees winning percentage verse the Red Sox winning percentage since August 15th. Granted both have had to deal with postponements due to Hurricane Irene, but the Sox and Yankees have very similar winning percentages, only .020 apart. Yet, the Yankees have overtaken Boston and now hold a two and a half lead.

The moral of this story is look out for Detroit and Milwaukee, but don't sleep on Arizona and New York. Winners still have to perform on the field, but entering the postseason on a hot streak sure will help.

This is the first year I can remember where, as of September 1st, there was literally not a Wild Card chase to found.  That is, unless you consider 7.5 games back or 8.5 games back within striking distance.  Mathematically, there is still a possibility of Atlanta or New York being overtaken for the Wild Card.  Realistically though, not a chance.

As of September 1, 2010, the A.L. Wild Card was all but wrapped up.  In the National League though, the Giants were 1.5 games back of the Phillies, and the Cardinals were 5 games back.  Using the Septemmber 1st date as our constant, let's look at the Wild Card standing back through the 2002 season:

2009: Texas was 4 games back in the American League while San Francisco was 1 back in the senior circuit.  Colorado was 3 back and Florida was 5 back.

2008: The White Sox and Twins were tied at 3 games back of Boston.  In the National League, the race wasn't as tight, but Philadelphia was still 5.5 games back of Milwaukee.

2007:  Seattle was 2 games back in the A.L. and Detroit was 3 games back.  San Diego and Arizona were tied for the Wild Card lead, and Philadelphia was 3 games back.

2006: The Twins were 0.5 games back in the American League, and Boston was 5.5 back.  In the National League there were 7 teams within 5 games of the Wild Card, including Philadelphia and Cincinnati only 0.5 games back.

2005: The Angels, the Yankees, and Oakland were all tied for the Wild Card lead while the Indians were 1 game back and the Twins were 5. In the N.L., Houston was 0.5 games back, Florida was 1.5 games back, the Mets were 2.5 games back, and the Nationals were 3 games back.

2004: The Angels were 3.5 games back of Boston and Texas was 5 games back.  San Francisco, San Diego, Florida, and Houston were at least within 3 games of the Wild Card lead.

2003: Boston was 1.5 games back of Seattle.  The National League again had 7 teams in competition.  All 7 were within 4 games of the lead, with 4 teams within 2.5 games.

2002: Seattle was 2 games back and Boston was 5 games back.  San Francisco was the lone competitor in the N.L. at 2 games back.

In the 9 seasons preceding this one, we have had compelling Wild Card races.  We have had parity.  But suddenly, in 2011, teams are either good, or they are bad.  And a lot of it has to do with pitching.  As Jason Stark wrote yesterday, pitchers are gaining ground on hitters through technology and constant study.  In addition, the reduction in steroid users has brought the game closer to a level playing field. 

Teams who have pitching are successful.  The Phillies clearly have the best rotation in baseball.  The Braves have probably the best bullpen in baseball (not to mention an aging Derek Lowe who slugged a home run yesterday).  The Brewers have a threesome of pitchers who have gelled better than any other team besides the Phillies.  The Diamondbacks have developed Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson into legitimate stars and Kennedy is even Cy Young quality.  In the American League, the Red Sox had Clay Buckholtz most of the season to go along with a rejuvenated Josh Becket and a consistent Jon Lester.  The Yankees have CC Sabathia.  The Tigers have the best pitcher in baseball.  And the Rangers have had one of the best staffs all season (they may be breaking down now, but they posted solid number up through about the middle of August).

I am a big proponent of adding another Wild Card in each league, but this season does not help my case much.  There is not a single team out there that cries out, "Hey, we deserve to be in the postseason!"  The Indians have tailed off terribly, the White Sox are inconsistent, the Giants don't have an offense, and the Cardinals don't have pitching.  If a second Wild Card team were in play in each league this season, much like artificial sweetener, it would just be fake. We'd be looking at Tampa Bay and St. Louis as the additional play-off teams.  While those teams could make some noise in the postseason, a glance at there season does not reveal a compelling reason to let them in.

In a league where only 27% of the teams make the postseason, it is easy to wish for more.  But not this year.  There's no one else deserving enough.  The Wild Card races as they are aren't even all that wild. 

The Yankees and Red Sox entered last night's contest in a perfect tie.  Winning percentage, wins, losses.  On August 5th, this should have been one of the biggest (if not the biggest) series of the regular season.  The nation should have been glued to their TV screen whether they loved or hated either team.  The President himself should have been peaking in or getting game updates from Secret Service.

Instead, the series doesn't matter.  The Yankees won last night and took a one game lead entering Saturday.  Barring a miraculous come-back from the Angels or the Rays, both the Yankees and the Red Sox are locks for the postseason.  So what does this series actually mean, besides another chance for ESPN to flex its love of "The Rivarly?"

Let's end the season right now and take a look at the match-ups:

The Yankees would win the East and would face off with Detroit in the Division Series.
Boston would take the Wild Card and would travel to Texas.

Now, let's flip this and say the Red Sox win the next two games, then end the season there:

The Red Sox would win the East and would host the Tigers.
The Yankees would win the Wild Card and take on Texas in Arlington.

So, essentially what this series decides is who travels to Texas and who hosts Detroit.  For many Yankees fans, that could be a big deal.  Just look at what happened last season when New York took on Texas.  However, in the overall play-off picture both New York and Boston will have the two best records at the close of the season.  They both have better teams than Detroit, and probably have better teams than Texas.

The rivalry this year isn't about making the postseason, it's about play-off scenarios.  For that reason, the play-off structure needs to change.  Talks of adding another Wild Card team are great, but there needs to be a better reward for winning the division.  This isn't a new discussion by any means, but it seems to be magnified in this "larger than life" series between the two titans of the American League East.

Many people are arguing for a one-game play-off between the two Wild Card teams (assuming the League does add another Wild Card in each league).  In this scenario teams would hopefully battle more for the division title rather than settling for the Wild Card.  No one wants to play a one-game series.  However, even a three-game series would lead teams down the right path of competition.  Look at the College World Series.  A three game series barely gauges the talent on the field and allows for flukes.  No team entering the play-offs wants to be knocked out by a fluke.

Yankees and Red Sox fans can occupy themselves this weekend with their nationally-televised rivalry of little consequence.  In the mean time, I will be paying attention to the race between the Diamondbacks and the Giants, the race between the Indians and the Tigers, and the race between the Angels and Rangers.