The 5.5 Hole

Jake Peavy was nothing more than a southern boy who could throw hard. The Padres drafted him in the 15th round of the amateur draft and sent him to play rookie ball. They didn't know what they had at the time. They only hoped they knew.

Peavy quickly dominated the rookie league in Arizona and Idaho posting a combined 9-1 record, 1.17 ERA, 103 strikeouts, and only 24 walks. All this was in 84.2 innings pitched at the ripe old age of 18. He continued his success in class-A ball in 2000. He pitched 132.2 innings, struck out 164, and had a 3.09:1 strikeout to walk ratio. He was well on his way to proving he may have been worth a bit more than a 15th round pick.

2001 saw Peavy's promotion to both high-A ball and double-A ball. Between the two leagues he went 9-6, had a 2.97 ERA, and a ridiculous 188 strikeouts in 133.1 innings pitched. That happened to be Peavy's last full year of Minor League baseball.

2002 and 2003 were adjustment years for Peavy as he pitched for the Padres in the "show." He had ERA's of 4.52 and 4.11 respectively. Then 2004 happened. Jake Peavy turned himself into an ace. Peavy went 15-6 with a 2.27 ERA, capturing the ERA title for that year. He struck out 173 batters and posted his first above 4 WAR at 4.5. The following year Peavy led the Padres to a division crown and led the league in strike outs. However, injuries that would soon plague his career began to slow him down. He broke a rib celebrating the division title, then during the off-season nagging injuries led to mechanical adjustments. But he still managed to finish with 215 strikeouts in 2006.

In 2007, Peavy finally garnered the national attention that had been paid to him for years by those in San Diego. He won the pitcher's triple-crown by leading the league in wins (19), ERA (2.54), and strikeouts (240). He was the unanimous Cy Young award winner for 2007 and looked to be well on his way to a career of total domination. Peavy tried to stave off a trade from the cash-strapped Padres, but even with a strained tendon from running bases, he was eventually dealt to the White Sox in July of 2009.

Strained ankle and all, Peavy became a member of the Chicago White Sox. He finished the 2009 season strong, going 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA for the White Sox. But Peavy's injury struggles would follow him into the 2010 season. In July of 2010, Peavy suffered a detached muscle in his upper back, an injury never before seen in Major League Baseball. No one was quite sure if or when Peavy would return. But he did. He struggled through another injury-plagued season this year, but finished strong.

Jake Peavy's start last night, in which he went 6.1 innings striking out nine and giving up no runs, is expected to be his last of the season. He will be given the entire off-season to get healthy and hopefully return to 100%.

Whether Peavy can do so remains up in the air. He has only started 30 or more games in a season three times in his career. He's seen more than his fair share of injuries. Yet, at only 30, he'll be 31 mid-way through next year, Peavy still has time. He's never completely lost the ability to strike people out. Peavy's swinging strike rate for his career is 11.2%. It dropped off in 2009 to 8.3%, but showed signs of recovery this year with a rate if 9.2%.

An off-season of rest, focus, and training will hopefully bring Jake Peavy back. This may very well be his last chance to regain the stuff that made him so nasty. This may be his last chance to regain the form that saw him rack up the second highest K/9 ratio and the second lowest ERA in baseball between 2004-2007.

It's easy to breakdown the top players in the league, but what about the little guys (or larger than life guys who are currently struggling)? What about the forgotten few bringing up the rear in offensive categories? Those are the players we'll take a look out in this article. It's time to give a little love to the bottom rung.

The Sliver Slugger Award (Player with the smallest sliver of a batting average)
Adam Dunn - .165
After posting a .260/.356/.536 triple-slash last season, Adam Dunn forgot how to hit. He has exactly 60 hits in 363 at-bats. He will finish the season (hopefully) with more than 60 hits, but the only other time he has had this few knocks came in his rookie season. In 244 at-bats, Dunn had 64 hits. He still posted a .262/.371/.578. This season, though, he's striking out more than ever. His 35.5% K Rate is the highest of his career.

Dunn is having one of the all-time bad seasons. A player known for his power and slugging percentage is barely hovering over a .290 slugging percentage. So we take our hats off to Adam Dunn and award him the Sliver Slugger Award.

The Triple Sombrero (Player with the most strikeouts)
Drew Stubbs - 170
If the silver sombrero is bad, and the golden sombrero is worse, and the platinum sombrero is downright embarrassing, the combination of all three must be reserved for season worsts. With only 41 more strikeouts to go, Stubbs is almost a lock to break Mark Reynolds all-time strikeout record. Through 129 games, Stubbs is averaging 3.9 at-bats per game. With 33 games to play, Stubbs will likely get about 128 more at-bats. With a K% of about 33%, Stubbs has a chance to strikeout 42 more times and set the all-time record.

At least Stubbs, unlike Adam Dunn, can boast a positive WAR. He currently sits on a 2.8 WAR. And while Stubbs strikes out a lot, he also gets hits. He has 126 hits. This is keeping him well above the Sliver Slugger Award. But, he has a tight grasp on the Triple Sombrero.

The Non-Base Percentage Award (Player with the lowest on-base percentage, minimum 300 at-bats)
Vernon Wells - .242
Wells has largely been a bust since coming to the Angels from the Blue Jays. But it may not be a complete reduction in talent. Wells' BABIP is a terribly low .211. That means either Wells is incredibly unlucky when he makes contact or fielders are incredible lucky. With a ground ball percentage fourth lowest in his career, it doesn't look like he is hitting the ball right at infielders. It would appear his fly ball hits are just dropping into fielders gloves more often than usual.

Vernon Wells isn't let completely off the hook though. In analyzing his walks, Wells is on pace to take less walks than he ever has in his career. With only 17 walks this season, it would seem Wells is hacking at every pitch he sees. Clearly this contributes to the types of pitches he hits and the chance for making outs. So, Vernon Wells, with his lack of walks, lack of hits, and sheer inability to get on base wins the Non-Base Percentage Award.

The Ducksnorts Award (Player with the least amount of home runs, minimum 300 at-bats)
Jamey Carroll - 0 Home Runs, 378 at-bats
In basically a full season's worth of games, Carroll has been unable to run into one. Carroll is one of only a few players in the league with over 300 at-bats without a home run. If pitchers can hit them, Carroll should have at least one.

Jamey Carroll does contribute elsewhere, though. He has a .291 batting average and a .360 on-base percentage. He's scored 42 runs and boasts a 1.5 WAR. Not great but at least he's contributing. Though Carroll isn't one to hit the big fly, he collects hits any way he can. As his reward, he wins the Ducksnorts Award.

There you have it. We've covered just a few of the offensive categories out there, but we have a good representation of the best of the worst. Great players are easy to evaluate. It's the mediocre to bad players that are fun to analyze. So enjoy the first annual Best of the Worst.

If you stay up late enough, you can catch a glimpse of pure domination.  Stay tuned through a Braves game until the ninth and there is a chance you'll see the future of closers in baseball.  At just 5'10", Craig Kimbrel may not seem imposing, but as he winds up and delivers, that thought quickly fades.  Kimbrel tied the rookie saves record last night and will surely eclipse it later this week.  With 40 saves this season, he has pulled even with the mark set last year by rookie Neftali Feliz. 

Kimbrel has a chance to be part of a small group of players in baseball history.  He has never started a Major League game and has been the Braves closer all of this season.  Should Kimbrel choose to stay in the bullpen, unlike Feliz who is widely thought to be moving to the starting rotation next season, he has every opportunity to shut down offenses like only Trevor Hoffman has done before.  Mariano Rivera started 10 games in his career.  Hoffman started none.  At 23 years old, there's nothing stopping Kimbrel from breaking every closer record out there. 

This season, he has compiled a 1.72 ERA in 62.1 innings pitched.  He has struck out a head-spinning 101 batters for a K/9 ratio of 14.5. He's posted an ERA+ of 220 and made his first All-Star Game this season.

Yet, Kimbrel will only be slamming the door shut in the ninth as long as he wants to, or as long as the Braves want him to.  Feliz in Texas decided he wanted to be a starter, so the Rangers went out and picked up two players in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara who can compete for the closer job next season.  If Kimbrel were making $5 million a year, the choice would be out of Kimbrel's hands.  It would be highly unlikely that the Braves would allow their 23 year old stud pitcher to be limited to one inning of work per night.  For that kind of money, they would likely throw him into the mix and have him starting every fifth game.  But Kimbrel is only making $419,000. 

And the beauty, for the Braves, is Kimbrel was drafted by them and they have control of him for at least four years.  He doesn't become arbitration eligible until 2013 and can't become a free agent until 2016.  I'd expect to see the Braves and Kimbrel work on a long-term deal this off-season.  The Braves are in a position that many teams dream of.  They can lock Kimbrel in to a deal now, without over-paying later. 

No matter what they do, Kimbrel's highlight reel season will go down in history.  With 32 games left to play, it would not be surprising to see Kimbrel reach 50 saves.  And as the Braves enter the play-offs in a probable match-up against the offense-heavy Brewers, any lead in the ninth will need extra protection.  Kimbrel looks ready for the job. 

As the innings slip away and the Braves find themselves with a lead, don't go to sleep, don't leave the ballpark early.  Stay up for the late show.  The late late show with Craig Kimbrel.  

There has long been a belief in baseball that players who mash monster home run totals but strike out so much even Nolan Ryan would feel the strikeout was cheapened are worth the cost as long as they continue smacking bombs. Names like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Carlos Pena come to mind. Yet, when production numbers are actually analyzed, teams would be better off spending money on a contact hitter who gets on base.

Let's take a look at some of the career numbers for these strikeout "kings." The numbers below are through 2010.

Mark Reynolds: 767 strikeouts in 1,982 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .387), career batting average of .240.
Adam Dunn: 1,632 strikeouts in 4,975 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .328), career batting average of .246.
Ryan Howard: 1,035 strikeouts in 3,237 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .320), career batting average of .275.
Carlos Pena: 1,131 strikeouts in 3,620 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .312), career batting average of .239.
B.J. Upton: 690 strikeouts in 2,435 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .283), career batting average of .256.
Rickie Weeks: 648 strikeouts in 2,413 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .268), career batting average of .256.

When your strikeout average is higher than your batting average, things can't be going too well right? Well considering the contracts some of these players have signed, maybe things are going just fine. Below is what each player has made in his career through 2010.


Adam Dunn: $56,695,000
Ryan Howard: $42,255,000
Carlos Pena: $28,342,000
Rickie Weeks: $8,796,000
B.J. Upton: $4,234,000
Mark Reynold: $1,652,333


Based on these career earnings and career at-bats, we will next look at what each player made per at-bat through: 2010:

Ryan Howard: $ 13,054 per at-bat
Adam Dunn: $11,396 per at-bat
Carlos Pena: $7,829 per at-bat
Rickie Weeks: $3,645 per at-bat
B.J. Upton: $1,739 per at-bat
Mark Reynolds: $834 per at-bat

For our next analysis, we will only look at the top-three salaries per at-bat. Rickie Weeks, B.J. Upton, and Mark Reynolds have not yet been paid in the same realm as the top-three sluggers. While overly simplistic and probably unfair, let's now look at what each of these top-three players made for unproductive strikeout outs in their careers through 2010.

Adam Dunn: $18,598,272
Ryan Howard: $13,510,890
Carlos Pena: $8,854,599

Maybe it's just me, but that's a lot to be paid for doing something any average Joe can do. So in fairness, let's take a look at what each player was paid for productive at-bats (hits + walks + HBP + SF + SH).

Adam Dunn: $26,621,056
Ryan Howard: $18,667,220
Carlos Pena: $12,103,634

So there you have it, not much separation between what these power-hitters are being paid to strike out compared to what they are being paid for production. Historically, 33% of Adam Dunn's contract, 32% of Ryan Howard's contract, and 31% of Carlos Pena's contract is wasted on strikeouts.

I already admitted this analysis is overly simplistic, but sometimes simple is all it takes. If I'm spending money on big name players, and each of these three players are big name, I'd like to get a little more production. But just to take the analysis a bit further, we'll wrap up by looking at these players' WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for their careers through 2010.


Ryan Howard: 20.8 (7 years, average WAR of 2.97)
Adam Dunn: 27.1 (11 years, average WAR of 2.46)
Carlos Pena: 13.1 (11 years, average WAR of 1.19)

Finally, I'll leave you with this; an MVP season is estimated to be 8+ WAR, an All-Star season is estimated to be 5+ WAR, a starter should be 2+ WAR, and a substitute should be 0-2 WAR. Carlos Pena is getting paid $10 million in 2011 to produce the WAR that a substitute could produce. Adam Dunn is getting paid $14,000,000 with an average WAR that barely puts him at starter level. Ryan Howard is being paid $20,000,000 and if you believe the WAR estimates, fans were right in not voting him to the 2011 All-Star Game.

Money well-spent?