The 5.5 Hole

In my continuing series of league standings adjusted for a single statistic, we will look at team FIP. FIP is a predictive statistic based on the idea that pitchers have little to no control over a ball once it is in play. Check out the glossary link on the right side (web version only). It assesses pitching based on the things pitchers can control rather than what they can't; strikeouts, walks, home runs, wild pitches, and hit by pitch.

With that in mind, let's see if there is any change to current standings if said standings were based solely on FIP.

American League East:

New York: 3.74
Boston: 3.95
Tampa Bay: 3.98
Toronto: 4.26
Baltimore: 4.66

American League Central:

Chicago: 3.59
Cleveland: 3.92
Detroit: 3.98
Minnesota: 4.34
Kansas City: 4.35

American League West:

Oakland: 3.74
Los Angeles: 3.79
Seattle: 3.87
Texas: 4.09

National League East:

Philadelphia: 3.21
Atlanta: 3.43
Florida: 3.86
Washington: 3.98
New York: 4.06

National League Central:

Milwaukee: 3.59
St. Louis: 3.86
Chicago: 4.13
Pittsburgh: 4.13
Cincinnati: 4.31
Houston: 4.34

National League West:

San Francisco: 3.34
Los Angeles: 3.67
San Diego: 3.71
Arizona: 4.05
Colorado: 4.22

The A.L. East looks identical to its true standings, so we'll leave them alone. But how about the A.L. Central? The Tigers in third? Behind Cleveland and Chicago? How about the N.L. West and absurdity of those standings? The Dodgers couldn't possibly cling to second in the West, nor could the Padres be in third. So what does this mean in terms of reality?

There are countless ways to interpret statistics. No matter the stat, application depends on the applier. I will attempt the most logical approach I can think of, the predictive value of the FIP statistic.

FIP is not necessarily designed to predict the future in one season, but the season ends in September right? A new one begins in October. With that mind set, I will use the adjusted standings, based on FIP, to make some (not so) bold predictions.

Both the Tigers and the Diamondbacks have built leads large enough to overcome any FIP shortcomings. But the Dbacks also have offense on their side. They can hit with the best of them and will go to a three-man rotation for the postseason. They'll be fine. The Tigers, on the other hand, play in an A.L. Central where a minimal amount of offense can get them by. The play-offs are different, and Justin Verlander can only start two games in a five game series. They're in trouble.

One might see the Rangers FIP and assume they will be overtaken by the Angels. Those people will likely be wrong. The Rangers should be able to win the division and carry themselves through the postseason with their monumental run differential. This isn't the Giants we're talking about. But their offense can only carry them so far. Depending on their three-man rotation in the play-offs and how that rotation's FIP shakes out, the Rangers could run into trouble against Red Sox or Yankees in the ALCS.

By no means is this an exact science, so get off Travelocity.com, cancel your trips to Vegas. As with the other pieces I wrote on adjusted standings, this is just an interesting way to look at the pieces that go into building a win-loss record.

But for those who don't heed my disclaimer and win money in Vegas on these predictions, I claim 10%.

The Brewers have a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals, a 13 game lead over the Reds, and a 17 game lead over the Pirates.  All season long, the run away division seemed to be the National League East with the Phillies dominating and the Braves bringing up the Wild Card.  Now, the Braves are 6 games back and at least within striking distance.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have opened up a virtually insurmountable lead.

How did this all happen?  On August 1st, the N.L. Central standings looked like this:

Milwaukee: 60-49
St. Louis: 57-21 -- 2.5 GB
Pittsburgh: 55-52 -- 4 GB
Cincinnati: 54-55 -- 6 GB

Since then, all Milwaukee has done is have one of the all-time great months.  In August, the Brewers have gone 20-5, scored 131 runs, and only gave up 77 runs. The National League records for wins is 29, held by the New York Giants.  While the Brewers won't be able to reach that total, they still have three more games this month.

While the Brewers have been winning, everyone else has been losing.  The Cardinals went 12-13 in August so far, the Pirates went 7-18, and the Reds went 12-11.  What's probably more frustrating for the fans is that each of these three teams added pieces at the trade deadline in an attempt to compete for the division. 

The Cardinals traded away Colby Rasmus but picked up Edwin Jackson.  The Pirates added Ryan Ludwick and Derek Lee.  The Reds traded Jonny Gomes to the Nationals for cash, outfielder Bill Rhinehart, and pitcher Chris Manno. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers stood pat for the most part.  They did trade Erik Komatsu for Jerry Hairston Jr., and they traded Wil Nieves for cash.  Hardly moves designed to bolster their line-up or change their make-up.  The Brewers gelled as a team while other teams were adding new pieces.  They rallied around each other, the players they had battled with all season long, and put so much ground between the Cardinals and themselves that they are almost a lock for the play-offs.  In doing so they now own the third best record in all of baseball. 

So even though the race is all but over, we can delight in the dominance of the Milwaukee Brewers.  We can revel in their success.  Or we can hate their fortune.  That's what baseball is all about. 

How much do runs actually matter?  You've heard over and over again about the American League Central.  Only one team has a positive run differential (scoring more runs on the season than their opponents).  Scoring runs clearly create wins, but how much does the amount of runs actually matter?  Taking the run differential totals, I re-ranked the teams in each division.  Some results are to be expected, but some are surprising.

First the American League:

A.L. East:
NY Yankees +185
Boston +157
Tampa Bay +51
Toronto +22
Baltimore -135

A.L. Central:
Detroit +4
Chicago White Sox -17
Cleveland -18
Kansas City -65
Minnesota -137

A.L. West:
Texas +101
Los Angeles Angels +24
Oakland -21
Seattle -70

Not many surprises here.  The Twins would actually rank lower than the Royals if run differential determined standings.  Yet, the Twins with their -137 actually sit 2.5 games better in the standings than the Royals. While the White Sox are a 1/2 game back of the Indians for second place in the A.L. Central, their run differentials would put them slightly ahead and in second place.  The A.L. East and West match up exactly with the standings.  

Now for the National League:

N.L. East:
Philadelphia +158
Atlanta +70
NY Mets -21
Washington -27
Florida -79

N.L. Central:
Milwaukee +54
Cincinnati +44
St. Louis +36
Pittsburgh -46
Chicago Cubs -101
Houston -158

N.L. West:
Arizona +9
San Diego +5
Colorado 0
Los Angeles Dodgers -9
San Francisco -15

There's a little bit more of a shake up in the National League.  Washington, while ahead of the Mets by a game and a half in the standings, would actually rank behind the Mets using this method.  Cincinnati, 3 games behind St. Louis for second in the Central, is actually better by 8 runs in differential.  Then there's the West.  See anything strange?  First, the defending World Series Champions rank dead last.  Second, the San Diego Padres, currently planted firmly in the cellar, rank second.  Interestingly, the West is also the only division on baseball to have no teams with a run differential of -50 or less.  The lowest total is -15. 

What does this all mean?  It means that runs are important, but not the only ingredient for success.  If standings were based on total runs for the season, or how well teams outscore their opponents, this would be a different conversation altogether.  If that were the case, we'd be talking about the Padres challenging the Diamondbacks for the N.L. West crown.  We'd be talking about the Angels barely hanging on. 

But in the end, runs don't matter as much as wins.