The 5.5 Hole

For anyone who missed it, the last two days of baseball have been the greatest in history.  In history!  More specifically, last night was the greatest single night in regular season history.  These were games 162 for the teams involved, but there was no question, last night was play-off baseball. 

Many will argue last night's place in history, but until someone gives me a scenario greater than four teams battling for the final two play-off spots with two of those teams on the verge of the greatest comebacks in history, last night ranks supreme.  You don't need a recap, but here you go.

The Rays were nine games behind the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card chase when September kicked off.  The Cardinals were eight and a half games behind the Braves in very early September.  Both of these teams went on incredible runs to pull into a Wild Card tie heading into the last game of the season.  This set up the picture-in-picture creator's dream situation.  Four games, all with play-off implications.  The Rays were facing the Yankees, the Red Sox were facing the Orioles, the Cardinals were facing the Astros, and the Braves were facing the Phillies. 

But even with the drama leading into last night, no one could have predicted the excitement that was yet to come.  The fan bases in Boston and Atlanta will never see the beauty of last night.  I understand that.  As a Padres fan who watched that team lose a one-game play-off to the Rockies in thrilling fashion in 2007, I understand the pain of defeat will always block out the euphoria of baseball greatness. 

The Cardinals quickly put pressure on the Braves by running away with their game.  And the Braves seemed to respond.  With a one-run lead going into the ninth, they had their great rookie closer, Craig Kimbrel, on the mound.  But he blew it.  The Red Sox were leading in the seventh when rain threatened to end the game.  But after a delay of about an hour and half, the game resumed with the Red Sox maintaining their lead into the ninth.  But the Red Sox dominant closer, Jonathan Papelbon, blew it.  The Rays seemed dead in the water all game.  They were losing 7-0 until the bottom of the eighth.  Then magic happened.  The Rays scored six runs, capped by an Evan Longoria three-run home run, and headed into the ninth down only one run.  In the ninth, Dan Johnson happened.  In the 12th, Evan Longoria happened again. 

I've seen the footage of Bobby Thompson's walk-off home run to clinch the pennant for the New York Giants.  They were a team that came back from 13 games back late in August.  Until now, they were the greatest comeback story in baseball history.  I've seen Kirk Gibson's famous home run with two bad knees, I've seen Pudge Fisk waving his home run fair, Joe Carter winning the World Series, and Albert Pujols keeping hope alive for the Cardinals in 2005. 

Last night's home runs by Dan Johnson and Evan Longoria were better than any of those.  I have never been as excited in my life for a single night of baseball as I was last night.  Dan Johnson kept the excitement alive.  In the bottom of the ninth, with two outs, he stepped to the plate.  Dan Johnson?  Really?  He was batting under .200 and had one tater on the year.  It seemed like he was up there just praying he didn't make the final out that ended the Rays season.  With two strikes, he showed me he was up there to keep the Rays alive.  With a laser-shot over the right field wall, Dan Johnson placed himself in history with one of the greatest, most dramatic home runs in history.  Then, Evan Longoria topped him.

In the bottom of the 12th, Evan Longoria stepped to the plate literally seconds after the crowd made it clear that Baltimore had tied the game against Boston.  As Longoria was battling Scott Proctor, the crowd once again came to life.  The Orioles had just scored the winning run against Boston.  The Rays were at very least guaranteed a one-game play-off and maybe a Wild Card berth that night.  Longoria left little time to think about the possibilities.  Four minutes after Baltimore beat Boston, Longoria connected on another laser-shot.  This one, barely clearing the left field wall, placed Longoria on a very short list.  He became only the second player in history to clinch a play-off berth with a walk-off home run on the final day of the season.  Bobby Thompson, meet Evan Longoria. 

These last two days make me wonder if the postseason can top this.  Maybe we should end the season now.  What a wonderful chain of events that lead us to the magic and drama of last night.  Some will use last night as a call to keep the play-off format as is.  Some will still claim the season is far too long.  The fact is, the play-off format is what it is this year.  If the season were shorter, we would have had a Braves team and a Red Sox team limping into the play-offs.  This type of excitement cannot happen in football or basketball.  The NFL's season does not allow for great comebacks in the standings.  The NBA allows just about every team into their postseason. 

Now that it's all over, take a breath, forget about baseball for a day, because play-offs start Friday.  And I can't wait. 

There's a feeling every kid has when the holidays approach. It's one of wonder, hope, excitement and joy. It's a feeling that I had always thought could never be duplicated. But I have that feeling now. I can feel it in my stomach, I can taste it on my tongue, and I can see it in the air.

A play-off race (or two) so close that it will come down to the last day of the season is the equivalent of Christmas. Its approach seems to take forever, but once it arrives nothing else can penetrate your thoughts. You count the days and hope you get something good. You sneak a peak at the presents under the tree and realize, you've got more than you thought.

After 160 games, we all have more than we thought under the tree. The Red Sox and Rays are tied for the Wild Card. The Braves have only a one game lead in the NL. These last two days will give us exactly what last season gave us. Play-off races down to the end of the season. The Padres, the Giants, and the Braves were all vying for two postseason spots last year. This year, four teams are battling for two spots.

The season will be coming to a close, and a new one will start soon. Like the transitioning seasons that offer a prelude to the holiday season, these changing seasons bring a prelude to baseball excitement. The anticipation of filling the final two spots is unlike anything else except Christmas as a kid. So bring on tomorrow's games and bring on Wednesday's games. Bring on the present as we look forward to the future. This is baseball, this is life, this is my Christmas.

After 14 innings, Boston had something to celebrate.  No, they didn't clinch the Wild Card.  They didn't clinch anything, in fact.  Except maybe some breathing room.  With Tampa Bay winning their game Sunday and Boston losing the first game of their double-header with New York, game two was a must win.  And if you think the Yankees were going to just roll over since they had already clinched everything they could clinch, you'd be dead wrong.

Brett Gardner's steal, playing the in-field in, Mo in the 9th.  The Yankees were playing to spoil the Red Sox season.  And that's what would have happened had Boston lost this game.  Had they lost, the Rays would have been tied with them for the Wild Card and the Angels would have been just one game back.  Instead, both the Red Sox and Yankees played like this was game seven of the World Series, and finally in the 14th inning, the Red Sox broke through with three runs to win it. 

Let's take a look at what this game really means.  Both the Rays and the Red Sox have three games left.  The Red Sox have three against the Orioles, the Rays three against the Yankees.  The Red Sox have their three on the road, and the Rays have their three at home.  The Yankees would be setting their postseason rotation, so the Rays likely won't see the Yankees' best.  The Orioles, on the other hand, have nothing but pride on the line.  Teams like this love to play spoiler, and their fans would love to see them knock the Red Sox out of the play-offs. 

What else?  Well, had Boston lost, they would have completed the biggest collapse in baseball history.  No one had ever had a 9-game lead on September 1st then blown it.  That's exactly what would have happened had the Red Sox lost game two of the double-header.  Sure, there are more games to play and a loss yesterday would not have precluded the Sox from the postseason, but it would have completed a meltdown of historic proportions. 

Let's not forget the added momentum the Rays would have taken from a Red Sox loss.  The Rays are already hot, despite three straight losses to the Yankees last week.  This time around, the Rays will be playing for their postseason lives.  The Yankees will likely be resting their starters.  Tampa Bay, if their fans actually come out to the park, will be rocking in hopes of a miraculous play-off berth. 

Yes, a Boston loss in game two of that double-header yesterday would have changed things, but these last three games should be intense.  While a tie leading into these last three games would have been more interesting, and it will still take quite a bit of work for the Rays to pull of this upset, play-off baseball has already started. 

While the world (myself included) focuses on the Rays and their pursuit of the Red Sox, the Cardinals and Giants have made things very interesting in the National League. The Braves, much like the Red Sox have struggled to win in September. Since September 1st, Atlanta has gone 7-11, and their road doesn't get much easier with only the last three games of the season (against the Phillies no less) at home. That leaves six straight road games though. So let's look at both the Cardinals' and Giants' roads the rest of the way.

St. Louis:

The Cardinals have 10 games left and sit 3.5 back of the Braves. Six of those games are at home, and all but tonight's game against the Phillies are against sub-.500 teams.

With Chris Carpenter pitching like his former Cy Young self, Albert Pujols being Albert Pujols, and a top flight offense like the Cardinals have, the Braves may need to start panicking.

San Francisco:

All but dead a couple weeks ago, the Giants have resurrected themselves. All the sudden, the Giants find themselves just four back of the Braves. Most of the momentum is coming from the Kung-Fu Panda himself, Pablo Sandoval. After an up and down season, Sandoval is mashing the ball and even got himself a cycle at the end of last week. The Giants have a tough hill to climb though. Six of their last nine games are on the road, with three of those games at Chase Field against the Diamondbacks.

The Giants will need to rely on their pitching like they did in 2010. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, and Madison Bumgardner will have to carry this team if they want to return to the postseason.

The last 10 games of the season should be terrific baseball. With multiple races, each game feels like October already.

Tampa Bay is trying to pull off a feat as improbable as the Colorado Rockies run in 2007.  Maybe as improbable as the '51 Giants in the fact that they are doing this in the American League East, the toughest division in baseball.  They're not there yet, but the Rays are now just 5.5 games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card with 19 games to play.  They're only 5 games back in the loss column. 

These teams play two more games at the Trop this weekend, then face off at Fenway in a four-game series at the end of next week.  Depending on whether the Red Sox can bounce back from injuries and poor pitching performances, they may find themselves on the receiving end of a comeback for the ages. 

On August 1, 2011 the Rays found themselves 9 games back of the Wild Card behind the Yankees and the Angels.  Since that date, they have gone 23-13.  They're 15 games above .500 and hold a (slightly) better record than the Angels who are in a much better position for a postseason appearance.  While 5.5 games back with 19 games to go is not an enviable position, it's a better position than the Rays were in on September 1st.  They were 8.5 games back with just 24 to play.  All but out of the play-off picture much like the White Sox, Indians, and Giants are now.  But now, they're back in it.  They've delayed the discussions of what is sure to be another off-season of "rebuilding" and firmly planted themselves in the play-off discussions instead.

What makes this feat even more remarkable is where this team was at the end of the 2010 season.  Almost a year ago today, on September 22, 2010, Rays owner Stuart Stenberg all but declared the death of competitive baseball in Tampa Bay. He told reporters the Rays would be cutting payroll no matter what.  Not an encouraging sign for a team on its way to another postseason berth and a fan base hoping a deep run would bolster the team's finances.  He said the team would cut payroll in the off-season by $22 million at least, maybe more.  We won't have an accurate picture of what the Rays spent in 2011 until after the season concludes, but it sure looks like a team with a $50 million payroll rather than a $72 million payroll.  But they're still winning.  In the American League East. 

Surprisingly, the Rays have managed to compete with offense and fielding more than pitching.  Sure they have "Complete Game"' Shields and David Price, but outside of those two pitchers, the rotation is not very good.  Shields and Price have combined for 9.5 WAR this season.  The other three starters have combined for only 4.3 WAR (According to Fangraphs). But they've made up for it on offense.  They're offensive WAR of 24.5 ranks them only behind the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers.  They've stole the third most bases in the American League and have the third best success rate for stolen bases.  They're 41.8 Ultimate Zone rating ranks them only behind the Red Sox in the A.L., and they're DRS (defensive runs saved) rating of 61 ranks them number one.

The Tampa Bay Rays have defied expectations, shed payroll, and continued to compete in a division full of offensive juggernauts like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays.  They may not be able to get over the hump and take the Wild Card, but they've given themselves a decent shot.  With the Red Sox struggles and the Rays surge, I wouldn't be surprised to see this race come down to the final week.

For the entire second half of the season we've been looking for play-off races.  Now we have two; the Rangers and Angels, and the Red Sox and Rays.

In 1951, the Giants came back from a 13 game deficit in August to force a one-game play-off with the Brooklyn Dodgers. What makes this moment in history special is less the comeback itself and more the urgency. The loser was not granted a conciliatory play-off spot. The loser was not stripped of home field advantage. The loser went home and was forced to watch the World Series, rather than play. That was on the line in 1951. Not simply a play-off spot, but the World Series. The goosebumps-inspiring walk-off home run blasted into the New York night by Bobby Thompson will forever be the greatest walk-off shot in history. It capped the Giants improbable comeback and, much like the ball Thompson hit, rocketed the Giants somewhere special. But this magical moment in baseball history is not the rallying cry for reduced play-off teams or continuance of the status quo.

I've tried to sit back and let the play-off expansion conversation play out, but there has been an influx of articles lately bashing not only the idea, but the current postseason format. Not only is this line of thinking closed-minded, but it is based in fallacy. It is based on the idea that things that have been should continue to be. We are a progressive country where things are always changing and if you don't change with it, you are left behind.

When the league was made up of 12 teams, a drive straight from the regular season into the World Series made sense.  With 28 teams in the league, an eight-team play-off scheme worked.  The Wild Card worked.  But with the parity in baseball, this year not withstanding, and with 30 teams in the league, the play-offs need to be expanded.  If the game does not change for the better, it stays the same and gets worse.  But I understand there will be concerns.  So far, I've heard three distinct concerns, and I will cover each of those.


1) We will lose the excitement.

Why?  This year there are no true races aside from the Rangers and the Angels.  While I agree, this year's play-offs would be a watered down version if there were two more Wild Card teams, we would at least have additional races to discuss.  There was a similar fear when the current system was put in place.  There was a fear of cheapening a play-off appearance.  But the system we have has worked out pretty well.  Just ask the Wild Card teams that have won the World Series.  Baseball is harder than it has ever been.  Athletes are bigger and stronger.  Players and managers are smarter.  An expansion of the play-offs does not cheapen the thrill of the postseason.  It does not reduce the excitement.  It enhances it.  Almost every year we would have stories of comebacks, fights to the finish, and races that last until the last day of the season.  In memory of the chills that Bobby Thompson's home run brings, this would be a good thing. 

2) The season would be too long.

No argument here.  The 162 game season is a long one.  It spans from April to October.  Yet, it is a far cry from the NBA season, which has virtually no off-season.  It is incomparable to the NFL, which only plays once a week.  The season is a long one, but we are fans of the game, are we not?  To ask for less seems counter-intuitive to what we want.  We want baseball.  Yet, I agree the season is too long.  I agree that adding another layer of play-off baseball will extend the season a little bit longer than we'd all like to see.  So, shorten the season by four games.  It won't happen, but four games is nothing in the grand scheme of ticket sales, play-off races, and player contracts.  However, four games/four days is huge in finding room for an additional round of play-offs.  With the most widely discussed option for the two additional Wild Card teams to be pitted against each other in a best-of-three, four extra days could cover the entire series.  But considering this will never happen, we will set this argument aside.  You got me on this one critics, let's move on.

3) We can't add two Wild Cards until realignment takes place.

I'm not sure I understand this argument.  If the true argument is fairness to the leagues, we already see unfair play-off positioning.  The American League gets four teams out of 14, while the National League gets four teams out of 16.  So let's add the two additional Wild Cards.  Things would not get any less fair in doing so.  Add the Wild Cards and figure out realignment later.  To allow this as a sticking point makes no sense.  Let's look at an example.  Next year, after the new Collective Bargaining Agreement is ratified, let's assume an agreement was not reached on realignment.  We would still have 14 teams in the A.L. and 16 teams in the N.L.  Adding two new Wild Card teams does not affect the unbalanced leagues.  Then, in a few years baseball and some team in the National League agree to have that team moved to the American League.  We still have the two additional Wild Card teams, but things have only gotten more fair between the leagues.  Where's the issue?


I am often shocked at the arguments for staying the course.  These people, so afraid of change they would rather keep the world suspended in time, forget what change has brought us.  It has brought us freedom, an end to slavery, modern technology, and medicine to save lives.  By no means am I comparing baseball to these other things that actually mean something.  I am simply saying, change is good.  Those demanding the norm forget that if things didn't change, life would be a whole lot worse for all of us. 

Open your minds and give this a chance.

This is the first year I can remember where, as of September 1st, there was literally not a Wild Card chase to found.  That is, unless you consider 7.5 games back or 8.5 games back within striking distance.  Mathematically, there is still a possibility of Atlanta or New York being overtaken for the Wild Card.  Realistically though, not a chance.

As of September 1, 2010, the A.L. Wild Card was all but wrapped up.  In the National League though, the Giants were 1.5 games back of the Phillies, and the Cardinals were 5 games back.  Using the Septemmber 1st date as our constant, let's look at the Wild Card standing back through the 2002 season:

2009: Texas was 4 games back in the American League while San Francisco was 1 back in the senior circuit.  Colorado was 3 back and Florida was 5 back.

2008: The White Sox and Twins were tied at 3 games back of Boston.  In the National League, the race wasn't as tight, but Philadelphia was still 5.5 games back of Milwaukee.

2007:  Seattle was 2 games back in the A.L. and Detroit was 3 games back.  San Diego and Arizona were tied for the Wild Card lead, and Philadelphia was 3 games back.

2006: The Twins were 0.5 games back in the American League, and Boston was 5.5 back.  In the National League there were 7 teams within 5 games of the Wild Card, including Philadelphia and Cincinnati only 0.5 games back.

2005: The Angels, the Yankees, and Oakland were all tied for the Wild Card lead while the Indians were 1 game back and the Twins were 5. In the N.L., Houston was 0.5 games back, Florida was 1.5 games back, the Mets were 2.5 games back, and the Nationals were 3 games back.

2004: The Angels were 3.5 games back of Boston and Texas was 5 games back.  San Francisco, San Diego, Florida, and Houston were at least within 3 games of the Wild Card lead.

2003: Boston was 1.5 games back of Seattle.  The National League again had 7 teams in competition.  All 7 were within 4 games of the lead, with 4 teams within 2.5 games.

2002: Seattle was 2 games back and Boston was 5 games back.  San Francisco was the lone competitor in the N.L. at 2 games back.

In the 9 seasons preceding this one, we have had compelling Wild Card races.  We have had parity.  But suddenly, in 2011, teams are either good, or they are bad.  And a lot of it has to do with pitching.  As Jason Stark wrote yesterday, pitchers are gaining ground on hitters through technology and constant study.  In addition, the reduction in steroid users has brought the game closer to a level playing field. 

Teams who have pitching are successful.  The Phillies clearly have the best rotation in baseball.  The Braves have probably the best bullpen in baseball (not to mention an aging Derek Lowe who slugged a home run yesterday).  The Brewers have a threesome of pitchers who have gelled better than any other team besides the Phillies.  The Diamondbacks have developed Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson into legitimate stars and Kennedy is even Cy Young quality.  In the American League, the Red Sox had Clay Buckholtz most of the season to go along with a rejuvenated Josh Becket and a consistent Jon Lester.  The Yankees have CC Sabathia.  The Tigers have the best pitcher in baseball.  And the Rangers have had one of the best staffs all season (they may be breaking down now, but they posted solid number up through about the middle of August).

I am a big proponent of adding another Wild Card in each league, but this season does not help my case much.  There is not a single team out there that cries out, "Hey, we deserve to be in the postseason!"  The Indians have tailed off terribly, the White Sox are inconsistent, the Giants don't have an offense, and the Cardinals don't have pitching.  If a second Wild Card team were in play in each league this season, much like artificial sweetener, it would just be fake. We'd be looking at Tampa Bay and St. Louis as the additional play-off teams.  While those teams could make some noise in the postseason, a glance at there season does not reveal a compelling reason to let them in.

In a league where only 27% of the teams make the postseason, it is easy to wish for more.  But not this year.  There's no one else deserving enough.  The Wild Card races as they are aren't even all that wild. 

With another season of interleague play in the books and the All-Star Game just around the corner (both of which have the commissioner's handiwork ingrained), I began thinking about Bud Selig's career and legacy.

I've always been a major critic of Selig's performance as commissioner, but decided to take a closer look at his resume. Was this villain and devious master-mind behind baseball's destruction really as bad as I had built him up to be? Has his post lead to the disintegration of the game I love?

The short answer to those questions is no. Bud Selig is far from perfect, but he has navigated the game through a strike and a steroids scandal without losing too many fans forever. More on the steroids issue in a bit.

Selig's biggest claim to fame is the introduction of interleague play. No matter what the skeptics say, no matter how many people cry foul due to the unbalanced schedule, fans love interleague games. Every year most ballparks see a spike in attendance during interleague series. Selig's brainchild has brought more fans to the game, led to increased revenue, and led to an overall increase in interest.

Selig is also responsible for the introduction of the Wild Card. This move was heavily criticized by baseball purists when it happened, but the result speaks for itself. Since its introduction in 1995, there have been nine Wild Card winners that have made the World Series, and four of them won the World Series.

Selig is also responsible for making the All-Star Game count for home-field advantage in the World Series. It was an interesting concept, but has led to a reduction in the spirit of the ASG. It used to be that fans would be virtually guaranteed to see their favorite player get some playing time in the game. Now, managers manage the lineups to win (rightly so). Players who would have seen some action previously, no longer do as each league jockeys for a chance at home field advantage.

A quick glance at Selig's resume would lead you to believe he's been a fantastic commissioner. The positives far outweigh the negatives, right? They do until you remember Selig essentially turned a blind eye to steroid use in baseball.

Lack of testing and repercussions until 2005 is a travesty. There had been plenty of players who were busted for steroids prior to that. There were plenty of suspicions. Players trying to play the game clean were faced with an un-level playing field. Many turned to steroids just to keep up. The famous home run race of 1998 was nothing more than a showcase of performance enhancement.

This all happened under Selig's watch. And for that, he cannot be forgiven. The good he has done for the game gets lost beneath the endless pile of steroids, HGH, and other performance enhancing drugs that Selig ignored. His legacy is now written in stone. Unfortunately, potential accolades for a career well-done have forever been replaced with criticism of his complacency and disregard.

Only after Selig steps down (supposedly after the 2012 season, we'll see) will baseball be able to fully heal. One day, we can sit back and enjoy the benefits of Selig's time as commissioner, but that day will not come with him still at his post.