The 5.5 Hole

Thanks to everyone who has read my pieces on The 5.5 Hole, I have been offered a staff writer position with Call to the Pen and an editor position with Chicken Friars.

Call to the Pen is a well-run site under the FanSided sports blogger network.  Check it out and check me out here.  You can also check me out here at Chicken Friars, a Padres themed site under the FanSided brand. 

With the increased exposure these two sites offer, I will be able to reach a much wider audience than I would at The 5.5 Hole.  Unfortunately, that mean The 5.5 Hole will go dormant.  I will keep the site running.  I may even pop in to add some content, but my main focus will be at Call to the Pen and Chicken Friars. 

Thank you all for the support, and I hope you'll follow me at my new home/homes.

Charlie Lea is an icon.  He has a statue in his honor standing tall in front of a ballpark.  He played with legends and watched many more.  He is in the record books for a no-hitter thrown on May 10, 1981.  And he is dead at the age of 54.

"It would be difficult to imagine a less likely candidate for no-hit fame. After all, the 24-year-old righthander Lea had been massaged for 16 hits in his previous11 innings this season. In two previous starts he hadn't lasted past the fourth inning." ~ The Sporting News, May 23, 1981

The above paragraph, taken straight from an article written about Lea's no-hitter in Montreal, captures the surprise of Lea throwing a no-hitter.  It's also fitting considering the sudden and surprising nature of his death.  It seems to be a heart attack that took down the Memphis Redbirds broadcaster and former Major League All-Star.  His death adding to the growing list of former players and managers taken before their time this year. 

Lea is a celebrated figure in Memphis.  He began his career there. He played high school ball there.  He played college ball there.  He broadcast games for the Double-A affiliate Redbirds there.  And in the end, he died there. 

While I do feel it necessary to pay tribute to a man lost well before his time, such eulogies are better written and better prepared by those who directly knew him.  For me, I'd like to take a look at his career.  A career full of more success than you would expect based on the few sentences captured above from The Sporting News.

Charlie Lea pitched for seven seasons in the Major Leagues.  He made his big-league debut with the Montreal Expos on June 12, 1980.  He was there on an emergency basis.  They needed a pitcher and looked to Lea to fill that void for one game.  However, he pitched well enough, earning the victory, to stay with the club.  Lea finished the 1980 season with a 7-5 record in 21 games, 19 of which he started.  At only 31 years old, Lea left the game because of nagging injuries.  Prior to that, he was on his way to being one of the game's better pitchers.

In 7 seasons, Lea compiled a WAR of 10.1.  His career FIP was 3.84.  He never allowed more than 19 home runs in a season, but never struck out more than 137 batters in a season. 

When trying to compare Lea with other pitchers, I came across an interesting comparison.  While Andy Ashby pitched longer, he has strikingly similar statistics in his first 7 years in the league.  Below are cummulative graphs of Lea's and Ashby's WAR and strikeouts over their first 7 years.





Their upward slopes for both categories are almost identical.  They had completely different careers, but as with their statistics, their careers had similarities.  Lea threw a gem in his 1981 no-hitter.  Ashby threw a gem in his 1998 75-pitch complete game.  Lea made one All-Star Game, Ashby made two.

No-matter the parallels, Lea and Ashby were different men whose lives went down different paths.  With Lea gone, we are left with the memories, the photos, the videos, the recordings, and the statistics.  As is often the case with men taken so young, the lingering questions of what-if will haunt the families and friends.  They will haunt those who knew him and those who didn't.

Charlie Lea was one month away from turning 55.   

When a team has money, evaluative methods seem to go out the window.  The Phillies are proving this theory once again with the Jonathan Papelpon signing.  The reported deal is worth $50 million over 4 years.  It could be worth more after incentives, but we'll analyze the contract based on the $50 million figure.  That's $12,500,000 a year. 

While a contract this huge for a player who pitches one inning every game or so seems insane, it is not all that uncommon.  $12,500,000 a year makes Papelpon the second highest paid relief pitcher, but there were 4 other players who made over $10,000,000 a year in 2011.  The fact is, though, saves can be bought for much less. 

Last season, the average number of saves for all of baseball was right around 27 (rounding up).  Based on the 2011 contracts of the closers earning these saves, the average salary was $3,840,129.  The average cost of a save in 2011 was $143,021.  

Based on Papelbon's $12,500,000 yearly contract with the Phillies, he would have to save 88 games to be worth the money.  Anything less, the Phillies overspent.  Anything more, they got a bargain.  Anyone willing to bet the Phillies got a bargain?

Using the 2011 figures and our calculation of $143,021 cost per save, let's take a look at who over spent and who got a deal. 



As you can see, 25 of the 40 players analyzed exceeded their value based on saves.  You'll notice there are players on this list with only single-digit saves, players who were injured, and players who lost their closer roles.  This may skew the list slightly if we are thinking about players like Joe Nathan who made $11,250,000 and only saved 14 games.  However, I think it balances out with players like Craig Kimbrel and John Axford. 

The fact that 25 players exceeded their expected value indicates a greater need for contract analysis when signing closers.  Jonathan Papelbon is just the most recent big name, but there are others.  Heath Bell is going to be commanding a raise even with his "home town discount."  Once Kimbrel and Axford reach their arbitration-eligible years, they will be making quite a bit more.  I think if teams were operating a lot closer to the league average yearly salary for a closer, they would get more bang for their buck. 

I understand the formula I'm working with here is more simplistic than the reality of finding decent closers for a proper salary.  But the idea behind it is sound.  $12,500,000 a year for a closer is far more than any team should pay.  Anything over $10,000,000 is far more than a team should pay.  In the grand scheme, saves only account for about half a teams wins.  And remember, saves are just the last few outs (or last three innings depending on the circumstance) of a game.  To pay a player as much as Papelbon will be paid is insane.   Teams should spend their money elsewhere, like offense.