The 5.5 Hole

Thanks to everyone who has read my pieces on The 5.5 Hole, I have been offered a staff writer position with Call to the Pen and an editor position with Chicken Friars.

Call to the Pen is a well-run site under the FanSided sports blogger network.  Check it out and check me out here.  You can also check me out here at Chicken Friars, a Padres themed site under the FanSided brand. 

With the increased exposure these two sites offer, I will be able to reach a much wider audience than I would at The 5.5 Hole.  Unfortunately, that mean The 5.5 Hole will go dormant.  I will keep the site running.  I may even pop in to add some content, but my main focus will be at Call to the Pen and Chicken Friars. 

Thank you all for the support, and I hope you'll follow me at my new home/homes.

Charlie Lea is an icon.  He has a statue in his honor standing tall in front of a ballpark.  He played with legends and watched many more.  He is in the record books for a no-hitter thrown on May 10, 1981.  And he is dead at the age of 54.

"It would be difficult to imagine a less likely candidate for no-hit fame. After all, the 24-year-old righthander Lea had been massaged for 16 hits in his previous11 innings this season. In two previous starts he hadn't lasted past the fourth inning." ~ The Sporting News, May 23, 1981

The above paragraph, taken straight from an article written about Lea's no-hitter in Montreal, captures the surprise of Lea throwing a no-hitter.  It's also fitting considering the sudden and surprising nature of his death.  It seems to be a heart attack that took down the Memphis Redbirds broadcaster and former Major League All-Star.  His death adding to the growing list of former players and managers taken before their time this year. 

Lea is a celebrated figure in Memphis.  He began his career there. He played high school ball there.  He played college ball there.  He broadcast games for the Double-A affiliate Redbirds there.  And in the end, he died there. 

While I do feel it necessary to pay tribute to a man lost well before his time, such eulogies are better written and better prepared by those who directly knew him.  For me, I'd like to take a look at his career.  A career full of more success than you would expect based on the few sentences captured above from The Sporting News.

Charlie Lea pitched for seven seasons in the Major Leagues.  He made his big-league debut with the Montreal Expos on June 12, 1980.  He was there on an emergency basis.  They needed a pitcher and looked to Lea to fill that void for one game.  However, he pitched well enough, earning the victory, to stay with the club.  Lea finished the 1980 season with a 7-5 record in 21 games, 19 of which he started.  At only 31 years old, Lea left the game because of nagging injuries.  Prior to that, he was on his way to being one of the game's better pitchers.

In 7 seasons, Lea compiled a WAR of 10.1.  His career FIP was 3.84.  He never allowed more than 19 home runs in a season, but never struck out more than 137 batters in a season. 

When trying to compare Lea with other pitchers, I came across an interesting comparison.  While Andy Ashby pitched longer, he has strikingly similar statistics in his first 7 years in the league.  Below are cummulative graphs of Lea's and Ashby's WAR and strikeouts over their first 7 years.





Their upward slopes for both categories are almost identical.  They had completely different careers, but as with their statistics, their careers had similarities.  Lea threw a gem in his 1981 no-hitter.  Ashby threw a gem in his 1998 75-pitch complete game.  Lea made one All-Star Game, Ashby made two.

No-matter the parallels, Lea and Ashby were different men whose lives went down different paths.  With Lea gone, we are left with the memories, the photos, the videos, the recordings, and the statistics.  As is often the case with men taken so young, the lingering questions of what-if will haunt the families and friends.  They will haunt those who knew him and those who didn't.

Charlie Lea was one month away from turning 55.   

When a team has money, evaluative methods seem to go out the window.  The Phillies are proving this theory once again with the Jonathan Papelpon signing.  The reported deal is worth $50 million over 4 years.  It could be worth more after incentives, but we'll analyze the contract based on the $50 million figure.  That's $12,500,000 a year. 

While a contract this huge for a player who pitches one inning every game or so seems insane, it is not all that uncommon.  $12,500,000 a year makes Papelpon the second highest paid relief pitcher, but there were 4 other players who made over $10,000,000 a year in 2011.  The fact is, though, saves can be bought for much less. 

Last season, the average number of saves for all of baseball was right around 27 (rounding up).  Based on the 2011 contracts of the closers earning these saves, the average salary was $3,840,129.  The average cost of a save in 2011 was $143,021.  

Based on Papelbon's $12,500,000 yearly contract with the Phillies, he would have to save 88 games to be worth the money.  Anything less, the Phillies overspent.  Anything more, they got a bargain.  Anyone willing to bet the Phillies got a bargain?

Using the 2011 figures and our calculation of $143,021 cost per save, let's take a look at who over spent and who got a deal. 



As you can see, 25 of the 40 players analyzed exceeded their value based on saves.  You'll notice there are players on this list with only single-digit saves, players who were injured, and players who lost their closer roles.  This may skew the list slightly if we are thinking about players like Joe Nathan who made $11,250,000 and only saved 14 games.  However, I think it balances out with players like Craig Kimbrel and John Axford. 

The fact that 25 players exceeded their expected value indicates a greater need for contract analysis when signing closers.  Jonathan Papelbon is just the most recent big name, but there are others.  Heath Bell is going to be commanding a raise even with his "home town discount."  Once Kimbrel and Axford reach their arbitration-eligible years, they will be making quite a bit more.  I think if teams were operating a lot closer to the league average yearly salary for a closer, they would get more bang for their buck. 

I understand the formula I'm working with here is more simplistic than the reality of finding decent closers for a proper salary.  But the idea behind it is sound.  $12,500,000 a year for a closer is far more than any team should pay.  Anything over $10,000,000 is far more than a team should pay.  In the grand scheme, saves only account for about half a teams wins.  And remember, saves are just the last few outs (or last three innings depending on the circumstance) of a game.  To pay a player as much as Papelbon will be paid is insane.   Teams should spend their money elsewhere, like offense.

I often write about baseball's influence on me, my family, future generations, life, and society.  The story lines of the game provide a balance to the story lines of life.  Never has this been more evident than in the past week.  Unthinkable darkness took place on the campus of Penn State University.  Sexual abuse of young boys has haunted our thoughts, discussions, and television screens for the past week.  And today we learned that a promising young talent with the Washington Nationals, Wilson Ramos, was abducted in his native Venezuela.  The horror we learn of almost daily has to be counter-balanced.  Sports does that for us.

As Joe Paterno was being fired and students were overturning news vans, stories about baseball provided an outlet.  An escape.  To read the what-ifs or maybes of Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder allows our brains to shut out the bad and operate on cruise control.  Baseball has allowed us to do this for generations.  There are other sports.  Other distractions.  But nothing like baseball. 

From the Civil War to the World War I, from the Great Depression to World War II, from Korea to Vietnam to Iraq, baseball has been there.  From Black Monday to the Iran Contra affair, from the Son of Sam to the BTK Killer, baseball has distracted.  September 11th, The Great Recession, Penn State, Wilson Ramos, and more.  Baseball doesn't stop.  Baseball is unyielding in what it does.

With five months to go, the start of baseball's next season can't come soon enough.  Silly stats and debates about the greatest of all-time are still a fall and a winter away.  In between, we have off-season.  We have predictions and outlooks to hold us over.  As we tread through a scandal not seen before in sports history, the winter transactions of baseball executives give us something else to think about.  As we wait, helpless for news of Wilson Ramos, Ramos' beloved sport, our beloved sport, give us something to take our minds off things.

The distraction of sports helps keep us going.  With a game on TV, a trip to the ballpark, or an article here or there, we push forward.  The games will go on and so will we. 

So frightening was the news of Wilson Ramos' abduction in Venezuela that I'm not sure many people know how to respond. The obligatory (and truly heartfelt) messages of concern have been passed around the Major League Baseball community, but no one has ever had to deal with the abduction of a player.

Latin American countries are often known for the kidnapping of wealthy victims. Abduction in places like Venezuela is truly a for-profit business. According to the Venezuela National Statistics Institute, 16,917 people were abducted in the country between 2008-2009. Yet, this is the first instance we know of in which a current player has been taken.

With the increasing number of Latin-born players, Ramos' abduction proves doubly frightening. One, the fact that he was taken is terrifying on its own. Two, if this abduction sets a precedent, the countless number of Latin-American players who travel back to their home countries to live or play ball will be doing so with heightened risk.

Perhaps most terrifying of all is the helplessness. Major League Baseball, the Washington Nationals, or anyone for that matter have very little they can do but wait and hope.

My thoughts are with Ramos and his family. All I can do is hope and wait.

As a general rule I don't venture outside the realm of baseball when writing. I stand by the belief that writers should stick to what they know and what they love. However, every so often a story comes to light that shakes not only its specific sport but sports and the nation as a whole. Often times, I will find a way to relate these stories to baseball in some obscure way, through anecdotes, minor correlations, or some other way. In the case of the charges levied against former Penn State coach Jerry Sandusky, Athletic Director Tim Curley, and VP Gary Schultz, the only correlation to baseball is that in baseball, and all sports, coaches are the trusted guardians of the young athletes and anyone else who may interact with them.

Jerry Sandusky, if the allegations are true, violated the trust many young people had in him. He is alleged to have committed acts so horrendous, they don't bare repeating here. But the scandal goes beyond that. A witness of one such encounter between Sandusky and a young boy reported the act to head coach Joe Paterno. According to Grand Jury testimony, Paterno immediately relayed the accusation to his boss, Tim Curley. But nothing ever happened. No police investigation. No child welfare checks. Instead, Sandusky was simply barred from further use of the Penn State facilities.

The cover-up and refusal to act is the most disgusting part. Especially considering the allegations that Sandusky abused many more boys AFTER this particular incident. And through it all the media is giving Paterno a pass "until the facts come out." At first I accepted this. Paterno reported what he was told to his boss. But that's not enough is it? To simply tell an Athletic Director of the crimes that may be being carried out on school grounds by a former employee is not enough. To wash his hands of the matter after that is wrong. And the fact that news outlets, of both the sporting variety and conventional kind, are ignoring this is an example of hypocritical journalism at its peak.

I do believe in the basic premise of "innocent until proven guilty," but there is nothing left to prove in Paterno's case. What's left is a case against Sandusky. If the case against Sandusky is proved true, it makes Paterno's inaction all the more disheartening, troubling, and frightening.

Joe Paterno's statement alone tells a story of failure to respond. Failure to investigate. Failure to protect. He admits that a Graduate Assistant and his father came to him and told of what the Assistant had witnessed. With this knowledge, allegations so hideous they hurt to even think about, Paterno only told his boss. If this had been any other coach in sports, any other person in sports, he would be getting crucified from all angles. The claims made against Sandusky warranted police involvement. When Paterno realized his AD had not involved them, his responsibility was to notify the authorities on his own.

I can understand the difficulty many established, smart, and talented writers face in this situation. To take a stand prior to Sandusky's day in court would mean attacking an old friend. Joe Paterno is about as well-liked and respected as a coach can be.

Yet, failure to call out the wrongs of a person you've known and liked for many years, is no different than ignoring the actions of a man you knew for 30 plus years. A man who may have abused little boys. Joe Paterno failed to act against his former friend, and mainstream media has failed to address the wrongs of Joe Paterno.

There aren't many things that last 104 years in this world. Most people don't. Cars don't. Some building don't. There are very few walking this earth still who were alive when the Cubs last won a World Series. Much will be written about the Cubs, their failures, their near misses, and their future. I'm here to tell you the 103 year drought will become 104 years after next season.

Don't get me wrong, the Chicago Northsiders are on the right track. Nothing is guaranteed, but hiring the front office Chicago did is about as close as you can get to a sure thing. Unfortunately for the Wrigley faithful, the Cubs organization was in such shambles when Epstein was hired, it will take time to rebuild. Even with Epstein and Hoyer's intellect. Even with Jason McLeod's eye for talent. Even with a new manager and a couple offseason transactions, it will take the Cubs a couple of years to dig out of the impossibly deep and embarrassing hole they've put themselves in.

And in the process we get to see Theo Epstein do something we've never seen before. Operate on a smaller budget. Given the contracts of Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Aramis Ramirez, Epstein will surely be playing with far less money than he's used to. Based on the state of the Cubs farm system, this could be the greatest thing for them. Epstein, Hoyer, and McLeod need to focus first on rebuilding the farm, then they can rebuild the big club.

And therein lies the reason why the Cubs will not be sniffing anywhere near a World Series next season. They will be hard-pressed to finish over .500.

In the long run though, Cubs fans should appreciate the building process that is about to occur. Re-shaping a losing franchise doesn't take place overnight, and winning a World Series isn't as easy as it sounds. The Cubs will need sustained success to increase their odds of breaking the 103, soon to be 104, year drought.

Leading a small-market team - you know, the type with the a payroll that could barely cover one player on the Yankees roster - to four play-off appearances in 14 years (including the 1998 World Series) would normally be a celebrated accomplishment.  I'd be willing to bet Pirates fans would sell their souls (or their Barry Bonds rookie cards) for such a run.  However, Kevin Towers, with the Padres ownership falling apart, was given his walking papers.  In 2009, Jeff Moorad took over as CEO of the club, and began the long process to take over ownership as well.  His first move?  Fire the General Manager that saw the club to its most prosperous period. 

This piece is not an indictment of Jeff Moorad, nor is it a second-guessing of moves made two years ago.  It is simply an examination of Towers and his highly underrated talents.  There's never been a question about Towers' reputation in baseball.  "Well respected," "a friend," and "talented" are often the terms used to describe Towers.  However, no matter what level of success he achieved through player development, trades, and free agency, Towers is rarely on anyone's short list of best GM's in the game.  He'll always be considered one of the better GM's, but has never been linked to any high-profile vacancies.

And that's just fine with the Diamondbacks.  Hired mid-season in 2010, Kevin Towers began re-shaping an organization that had little identity outside "that team that beat the Yankees."  What it seems the Diamondbacks are realizing in Towers is his unique ability to understand a clubhouse's dynamics along with player evaluation skills that allow him the buy low and sell high with the best of them.  Now, they have rewarded his talents.  The Diamondbacks extended Towers' contract through the 2014 season with a mutual option for potentially two more years. 

Towers began the quick re-building and turnaround of the Diamondbacks almost instantly.  And he didn't quit.  He ridded the team of fan favorites like Mark Reynolds and Kelly Johnson.  He introduced new favorites like Ryan Roberts (the Tat Man), and Paul Goldschmidt (the Double-A Bomber - Nickname courtesy of The 5.5 Hole).  He also backed the beloved Kirk Gibson as manager, and changed Gibson's title from interim-manager to just manager.  Towers brought new life to the Arizona pitching staff, including the addition of J.J. Putz to the bullpen.  But even before re-tooling a Diamondbacks team that had the worst bullpen in baseball, Towers was working wonders with San Diego.

On December 16, 1997, Kevin Towers sent three prospects to the Florida Marlins for a dominant pitcher named Kevin Brown.  This was part of a win-now philosophy rarely employed by Padres teams.  And it worked.  Kevin Brown went 18-7 with 257 strikeouts, and he helped the Padres win the National League pennant.

On December 20, 2005 Towers pulled off another huge pitching acquisition (although it would be over-shadowed by some guy named Adrian Gonzalez.  More on that in a bit).  The Padres were hoping to repeat as the Division Champs in 2006, so Towers went searching for starting pitching help.  The Rangers were in need of pitching help of their own.  Towers sent an injury-prone Adam Eaton, a decent Akinori Otsuka, and a prospect to Texas.  In return he got Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young.  Excluding his shortened 2010 season, Young averaged an ERA+ of 103.5.  Pretty solid considering Adam Eaton averaged an ERA+ of 72.83 and Akinori Otsuka was out of the game after the 2007 season. 

Beyond the pitching moves, which Towers became known for, he brokered some pretty huge position player deals.  Now we can talk about Adrian Gonzalez.  In what will likely go down as the greatest trade in Kevin Towers' career, former first-round pick Adrian Gonzalez came to the Padres in the Eaton and Otsuka deal.  Gonzalez didn't get much of a chance in Texas with Teixeira at first and batted just .227 during his rare time in the 2005 season.  However, once reaching the Padres, he averaged a triple-slash of .288/.374/.514.  He smacked 131 home runs in five season and made the All-Star team in 3 of his 5 season in San Diego. 

Before Gonzalez, Kevin Towers brought in many role players such as Mike Cameron, Greg Vaughn, Steve Finley, and Woody Williams.  Obviously none of these players are of the caliber mentioned above, but considering the payroll Towers was working with in San Diego, his contributions as a whole were impressive. 

So with another Division Crown under his belt, a team that should see little competition next season from anyone save for the Giant, and the added desire to move deeper into the play-offs it's no surprise the Diamondbacks extended Towers' contract.  Perhaps an extended run of postseason success will raise Towers' stature across baseball, but for now I'm sure he is happy quietly weaving success on the west.

It's interesting how one arrives at a story idea.  I read a an article about the Padres and their plans for 2012.  The article had very little to do with the size of Petco Park.  It had very little to do with the general feel from most fans and players that the walls need to be brought in.  Yet, that's exactly what I pulled from the article.  I was charged up and ready to defend the so-called "pitcher's parks" in baseball.  But as I began my research (which started with park factor stats), I discovered something far more interesting.  The league leader in park factor for both runs and home runs has been on a steady increase since 2008 after and steady decrease from 2001-2008.  (Note: there was a slight drop in the leader for park factor related to home runs in 2011)

Park factor simply compares the rate of a specified stat at home for teams vs. the rate on the road.  A park factor of 1 is average.  Anything less than 1 is below average and anything over 1 is above average.  For example, 1.25 would be 25% higher than the average.  For the math nerds, ESPN has a calculation for you: ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)).

Below is a chart of the park factor leaders in runs from 2001-2011:



And the park factor leaders for home runs from 2001-2011:



As you can see, the two charts have a similar slope.  Downward from 2001-2008, and upward after:







Why was there such a shift in park factor leaders starting in 2009?

There have been four new ballparks opened since the start of the 2008 season; The New Yankee Stadium (2009), Citi Field (2009), Nationals Park (2008), and Target Field (2010).  Now we can easily say that Yankee Stadium is conducive to offense.  The first year of existence saw a record number of home runs hit.  It has been in the top four for park factor home runs since it opened.  In 2011, Yankee Stadium ranked 6th in park factor for runs.  In 2010, it ranked second.  Nationals park has hovered around average for both runs and home runs since it opened.  Both Citi Field and Target Field are thought to lean more towards the pitcher-friendly side of the fence.

Even if the new ballparks caused an overall shift, the shift would only apply to the average.  These numbers in the charts above reflect the league leader each year.  In 2008, the last year of the decline in park factor for runs, the Rangers led the league.  In 2009 and 2010, the Rockies led the league in park factor for runs as we started to see the park factor climb.  In 2011, the Rangers again led.  For home runs, the park factor leader stayed the same in 2008 and 2009.  The Yankees led both of those years.  Then, as the park factor leader's numbers began to climb, the White Sox led the league in 2010, followed by the Rangers in 2011.

This tells me more about the make-up of these teams rather than the parks themselves.  There have not been enough drastic changes to the ballparks to cause the upward slope we see in the park factor leader boards.  To me, it seems the clubs with offense-friendly ballparks have begun doing a better job of putting together teams that can exploit those parks.  Once a front office has determined what type of players fit a ballpark best, the team should and usually does play that park to a distinct home field advantage. 

From 2001-2008 teams had less separation and the leaders in park factor runs and home runs were getting closer and closer to average.  However, as teams adjusted and attempted to build clubs that reflect the ballpark better, the successful ones opened the gap.