The 5.5 Hole

After reading a CBS Sports article about the possibility of Lance Berkman retiring after the season is over, I got to thinking about his career.  I do not think he is a real Hall of Fame candidate, but where does he fit on the all-time list of switch-hitters?

Let's look at his standard career numbers first.  In 13 seasons he has hit .295/.408/.547 (average/on-base/slugging).  He has collected 355 home runs and 1,176 RBI's. And if those numbers weren't good enough for you, Berkman was an All-Star in 6 of his 13 seasons in the Big Leagues.

As an additional measure of Berkman's career, let's take a look at the advanced metrics.  Berkmans WAR is negatively affected by his below-average defense, but still comes in at 49.6 for his career.  His oWAR, which is exclusive of defense, puts him at 53.0. For his career, Berkman has accounted for 487 RAR (Runs Above Replacement - the number of runs a player has accounted for above a random replacement Triple-A player).  This equates to about a 0.08 RAR per at-bat.

To be fair, we'll compare Berkman against similar switch-hitters.  Rather than use players who hit for average, steal a lot of bases, or are prototypical lead-off men, we will look at power hitters.  But to make it more interesting, we'll only address the statistics and reveal the names of these players at the end.

Player A:
.297/.381./.477 - 287 home runs - 1,257 RBI's
47.3 WAR - 59.3 oWAR - 486 RAR - 0.06 RAR/AB

Player B:
.298/.421/.557 - 536 home runs - 1,509 RBI's
120.2 WAR - 122.1 oWAR - 1129 RAR - 0.14 RAR/AB

Player C:
.274/.360/.451 - 350 home runs - 1,372 RBI's
37.2 WAR - 39.3 oWAR - 366 RAR - 0.04 RAR/AB

Player D:
.287/.359/.476 - 504 home runs - 1,917 RBI's
66.7 WAR - 60.2 oWAR - 643 RAR - 0.06 RAR/AB

Player E:
.305/.403/.533 - 448 home runs - 1,547 RBI's
82.1 WAR - 84.1 oWAR - 811 RAR - 0.10 RAR/AB

Player F:
.287/.366/.489 - 314 home runs - 1,092 RBI's
63.4 WAR - 54.8 oWAR - 589 RAR - 0.08 RAR/AB

Based solely on the stats above, not name recognition, I'll rank these power hitting switch-hitters in order. 

1) Player B
2) Player E
3) Player D
4) Lance Berkman
5) Player A
6) Player F
7) Player C

Finally, let's reveal the company Lance Berkman keeps in his career as a switch-hitter with power.

1) Mickey Mantle
2) Chipper Jones
3) Eddie Murray
4) Lance Berkman
5) Bernie Williams
6) Reggie Smith
7) Chili Davis

There are obviously some great switch-hitters I left off the list.  Pete Rose is right up there with Mickey Mantle as the best all-time, and Roberto Alomar should make an appearance on any all-encompassing list, but this list was focused solely on power hitters.  With that requirement, you can see Lance Berkman has done very well for himself in his career.  Of the seven players I have him ranked with, two are in the Hall of Fame, one is a lock when he retires, and a couple are just on the outside looking in.

Again, I do not think Lance Berkman is a Hall of Famer, especially if he does in fact retire after this season (which I do not think he will, no matter what team he goes to). Yet, he is one of the best switch hitters of all-time. 

*All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference

Apparently the world is going to end in 2012. Something about calendars, and Mayans, and maybe giant Arks. Could be a John Cusak movie, I'm not sure, but hopefully it doesn't happen before we get to see the results of the Padres off-season.

With the news from Padres brass that they intend to increase payroll and hope to operate at a consistent average of $70 million within a couple years, it's easy to get excited about what might be. Regardless of General Manager Jed Hoyer's mantra of "building within," the Padres will be active in the off-season and should be pulling in talent from outside their minor league system. With that said, I thought I'd take a look at the team and address some of the most important moves that need to be made.

1) Cameron Maybin

Currently making $429,000 and signed through the end if this year, the Padres are in a perfect position to extend Maybin's contract, throw a little money at him, and lock him into a long-term deal. My suggestion: 5 years, $20 million. A tiered contract would work best with the Padres plan. For example, offer Maybin $2 million for 2012, $3.5 million for 2013, $4.5 million for 2014, $4.5 million for 2015, and $5.5 million for 2016.

Maybin's mix of speed and defense will serve him well for years to come at Petco Park. He has the makings of a constant .280/.350/.400 hitter.

2) First Base

If Anthony Rizzo is the first baseman of the future, bring him up and leave him in the show for long enough to evaluate him as a Major League talent. Though his numbers at Triple-A Tucson should be largely discredited due to the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League. If he's not the guy for the Padres, they need to go out and get someone. The problem is, the only viable free-agent candidate at first base would be Xavier Nady. With him making only $1.75 million during this injury-shortened 2011 season, the Padres may be able to scoop him up in a short-term, discounted deal. I'd imagine something like two years, $3.5 million could get the deal done. A second time in a Padres uniform may do both the Pads and Nady well.

3) Pitching

To have a chance at contention, the Padres pitching staff will need to continue on the path carved the last few years, and will likely need to improve even more. Tim Stauffer is a quality start machine, so I expect the Padres to offer arbitration or sign him to a long-term deal this off-season. But they will still need to grab a free agent arm this off-season.

After reading a suggestion on Fangraphs.com about Edwin Jackson to the Padres, I began analyzing the possible move. Jackson has decent stuff and would benefit from pitching in the pitcher-friendly Petco Park, but he is making $6.275 million in 2011 with Scott Boras as his agent. I don't see Jackson and Boras taking a pay-cut, so if the Padres went this route, they'd need to shell out anywhere from $6.275 million to $7 million a year for him. Still, the move could be worth it. Jackson, even when his control was way off, managed a no-hitter with Detroit.

Then there's Heath Bell. Understandably, the team doesn't want to lock up a large percentage of payroll on a reliever. But to have any chance at competing in the near future, the club needs to maintain their shut down bullpen. Bell brings a number one closer talent to the park every game. He's willing to take a discount to stay with the club. I'm not sure what that discount is, but if we are talking $10 million a year, it's worth consideration. Bell can groom Gregerson, who I think is the heir apparent for the closer role. While doing so, he will provide that much needed insurance for the onslaught of close games the Padres will surely be in if they are competing for first.

That's about $20 million out of the supposed $50 million the Padres plan to spend next year. And those are the big ones. I'll leave the smaller contracts up to Jed Hoyer.

Regardless of what happens, this should be one of the most active off-seasons for the Padres in a long time.

While thinking about Stephen Strasburg's injury, I began thinking of other pitchers who sustained injury or other medical conditions that cut their careers short. The top five I came up with were:

1) Mark Prior
2) Kerry Wood
3) Jim Maloney
4) Smoky Joe Wood
5) Sandy Koufax

1) Prior's injuries began in 2005, and by the end of the year, his career was all but over. A look at his numbers through the 2005 season reveals a dominant pitcher. He was 40-21 with an ERA of 3.09. In his most dominant campaign, he went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA and 245 strikeouts. For his career, he compiled a surprising 13.1 WAR in just a few short seasons. There is no accurate way to predict how good Prior could have been if injuries hadn't wrecked his career. However, at only 25 when his career essentially ended, it's probably a safe bet that he would have made many more All-Star appearances and competed for multiple Cy Young awards.

2) Kerry Wood was one of the most dominant young pitchers in history, much like Strasburg has shown to be so far. With 233 strikeouts in only 166.2 innings pitched, Wood made himself known in 1998. Then there was the 20 strikeout performance. Yet, Wood's career was significantly derailed in 1999 when he underwent elbow surgery. He was never the same. While Wood has still had a long, relatively successful career, he could have been legendary. With a ridiculous 12.58 K/9 ratio, a K% of 33.3, and A FIP of 3.16 in 1998, Wood could have been one of the best strikeout pitchers of all-time. Instead, he struggled through six more seasons of starting before finding a home in the bullpen.

3) Jim Maloney never had a chance to throw for The Big Red Machine during the 1970's. His time with the Reds was concentrated to the 1960's and he was dominant. From 1960-1970, Maloney had 74 complete games and 30 shut-outs. He threw two no-hitters and struck out 200 or more batters four times. Unfortunately, Maloney severed his Achilles tendon early in 1970 and was never able to fully recover. He only pitched one more season before hanging them up at 31 years old. Had Maloney stayed healthy it is easy to picture the Reds winning more titles than they already did. Maloney would have only been 32 and at the height of his career during the 1972 season. His blazing fastball, stamina, and guts surely would have helped the Reds and probably would have landed Maloney in the Hall of Fame.

4) Smoky Joe Wood's career was cut short by foot and ankle injuries. He continued to pitch as long as his lower legs would hold up, but peaked in 1912. Ty Cobb called him one of the best pitchers he ever faced. And he could have been better. Wood won 34 games in 1912, finished his career with 121 career complete games, and a 2.03 career ERA. Yet, he wasn't able to start more than 18 games after the 1912 season. His ERA+ was 146 and he absolutely baffled hitters. Injuries probably kept him from being a 250-300 game winner and kept him out of the Hall of Fame.

5) Sandy Koufax, unlike Jim Maloney and Smoky Joe, overcame his injury shortened career and is enshrined in the Baseball Hall of Fame. Had it not been for arthritis and injuries, though, Koufax could have been the greatest of all-time. He threw four no-hitters, including one perfect game. He has a career ERA of 2.67 and an ERA+ of 136. He won three Cy Young awards, and he struck out 2,396 batters. All this was accomplished by the age of 30. Had it not been for injury, and accounting for a likely reduction in production as he aged, Koufax could have struck out 4,000 batters, could have won 300 games, and could have piled up even more no-hitters and Cy Young awards.

There are countless stories of pitchers whose careers were cut short by injury. We will never know what could have been, but with these five players, their early career results speak for themselves.