Monday, October 17, 2011
One team is owned by the only man to have tossed seven no-hitters. The only man to have struck out more than 5,000 batters. The only man to have beat the heck out of Robin Ventura. OK, that last one has little to do with baseball, but still proves Nolan Ryan's toughness. The Rangers were built to pitch. "New" philosophies were introduced by Ryan and his management team. Pitchers would go longer in games. There would be less focus on pitch counts and more focus on results. They were going to win the way the Giants beat them in 2010; with pitching.
The other team started the year with two legitimate Cy Young candidates in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter. They had a potent offense, sure, but they also boasted a pitching coach who churned out four Cy Young award winners (LaMarr Hoyt, Bob Welch, Dennis Eckersley, and Chris Carpenter). They were managed by a man who focuses so much on pitching, he's been known to change pitchers in the middle of an at-bat. They were going to breeze through this season and the play-offs on the strengths of their arms.
Then they had to play the games. Adam Wainwright blew out his arm. The Rangers were unable to re-sign Cliff Lee. And both teams finished the year outside the top-ten in ERA, and strikeouts. Neither team was horrible at pitching, but neither team was great. Yet, their offenses clicked at the right time. The Cardinals overcame an eight-game deficit in September to take the Wild Card while the Rangers fought off the Angels and their perennially competitive ways.
Two teams who were seemingly built on pitching, succeeded and plowed through the postseason on everything but. The Rangers put together a disappointing 4.40 ERA during the postseason so far. The Cardinals did not fair much better. They posted a 4.27 ERA. Their offenses fared a bit better. The Rangers scored a total of 55 runs. The Cardinals scored 62.
The second year into what many have dubbed "The Pitchers' Era" has provided a postseason with very little pitching dominance. The World Series will likely be much of the same. The Rangers, and Nelson Cruz specifically, are so locked in, their offense doesn't seem like it's going to let up. The Cardinals, with the barber-shop quartet of Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, and Freese, should light up the scoreboards with regularity. So, keep plenty of pencils on hand if you plan to keep score. Your scorecard will be marked up more than a high school geometry test.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Jose Valverde's season is hanging on by a thread. The Tigers season is hanging on by a thread. This all because of an 11th inning meltdown in which Valverde allowed a 4-spot to the Texas Rangers. Many casual fans argue that a closer shouldn't be brought in to the game in a non-save situation, while many writers and analysts argue that theory is completely bogus. What's the truth?
This is a debate based as much in opinion as in fact. Let's start from the opinion side of things and see if we can get an idea as to which side this debate may be leaning. Fans argue that the closer role (i.e. coming into the ninth inning with a slim lead and slamming the door) is a pressure cooker type role that can't be duplicated in any other in-game scenario. Thus, as the theory goes, when a closer is thrust into a non-save situation the mentality of said closer is different. This is likely not a conscious choice by the closer to go in with a different mindset, but the theory argues it happens nonetheless. If you flat out disagree with this theory, I caution you. It may hold more weight than many give it credit.
Take, for example, two separate projects at work. One has a tight deadline with a lot riding on it. The other is not nearly as important, has a longer deadline, but still needs to get done. When working on the stressful, tight deadline project, your focus and mentality will probably be much different than when working on the project with a lengthier timeline. Now imagine your only job is a continuous slew of important projects with tight deadlines and lots of stress, but you have just been asked to work on the other type of project. Think there'd be a change in your approach whether you mean there to be or not?
Writers and baseball analysts assume that a pitcher is a pitcher. If they make their pitches, the scenario shouldn't matter. That's sound logic too. Forget the inning. Forget the score. Any pitcher, at any time can succeed as long as he makes the right pitches. Yet, is it really that simple? The mental aspect to playing baseball is fascinating and often overlooked.
Let's take Jose Valverde for example. As of August 18, 2011, Jose Valverde's stats in save situations looked like this:
35/35 in saves, 0.51 ERA, 0.971 WHIP.
In non-save situations?
21 games, 2-4 record, 17 runs, 6.88 ERA, 1.80 WHIP.
Pretty remarkable difference, right? Yet, these numbers are so often brushed aside it's startling. The argument many will make is, who would you rather have, your closer or someone else? Well, let's look at some other closers around the league. These are all career numbers as published by The Closer News.
Heath Bell:
Save situation - 2.13 ERA/1.05 WHIP
Non-save situation - 3.60 ERA/1.53 WHIP
Brian Wilson:
Save situation - 2.63 ERA/1.43 WHIP
Non-save situation - 4.50 ERA/1.60 WHIP
Jonathan Papelbon:
Save situation - 2.08 ERA/0.86 WHIP
Non-save situation - 4.03 ERA/1.03 WHIP
J.J. Putz:
Save situation - 2.08 ERA/0.98 WHIP
Non-save situation - 4.91 ERA/1.00 WHIP
These are just a few closers around the league, but the change in performance is drastic. I understand that there are sure to be closers who perform the same in save situations and non-save situations as there are also probably closers who perform better in save situations, but when you have so many closers who clearly struggle in non-save situations, it's time to stop brushing off the possibility that closers should not be brought in in non-save situations.
After all is said and done here, I give the edge to fan theory. Writers and analysts can be as condescending as they'd like when shooting down these theories, but fact supports at least a closer look.
Saturday, October 8, 2011
I love baseball. I love do-or-die elimination games, extra innings, and pitcher's duels. I love clutch hits, great plays, and winning runs.
From the last day of the season on, baseball has been absolutely fantastic. The greatest single regular season day in baseball history has been followed up with division series' in both leagues for the ages. There were no sweeps, no easy advancements. The Rays and the Rangers were the only series not to go the full five games. But each game was intense and exciting. Two games in that series came down to some bottom of the ninth drama, and three out of the four games were decided by 2 runs or less. And that was just the series that DIDN'T end in a game five matchup.
The Yankees got the matchup they wanted in the Division Series when they hosted the Tigers, but quickly found themselves down two games to one. The juggernaut Yankees threw CC Sabathia in Game One and the Tigers threw the soon-to-be unanimous Cy Young pick Justin Verlander. They both got through one inning, then the rain came and erased a matchup most of the baseball world had been anticipating from the second the matchups were announced.
With the series knotted up at one game a piece, we finally got that matchup we had been looking forward to so much. But the offense stole the show. The game ended with a Tigers 5-4 win and pushed the Yankees to the brink of elimination with perhaps their worst pitcher slated to start Game Four.
AJ Burnett did start Game Four despite the collective groans from all of New York City. And he out-pitched even what he could have expected. A solo blast was all he gave up, and he powered the Yankees to a Game Five at home. And what a Game Five it was. Every pitch was important. Every pitch had fans on the edges of their seats. Just as the Tigers looked like they were going to pull away, the Yankees pulled to within one and were still threatening.
Joaquin Benoit threw some of the most exciting pitches anyone will ever get in a ball game. One missed spot could have spelled the end to the Tigers season, but he located them all, and calmly got the Tigers out of the inning, bridging the gap to Jose Valverde who hadn't blown a save all season long. And that trend continued as he closed out the series with a strikeout of Alex Rodriguez.
If that excitement was too much for you, grab yourself a pace-maker because there were two more Game Fives left to play.
The Brewers and the Diamondbacks met in the division series like twins separated at birth. These teams both have new managers, both had turned their seasons around, and both got surprisingly dominant pitching all season long. For every Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder there was a Justin Upton and Paul Goldschmidt. For every Zach Greinke and Yovani Gallardo, there was an Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson.
And when these twins, separated at birth, met this postseason, they showed fans the love and passion only baseball can bring. Nyjer Morgan was the fuel that powered a Brewers team full of young, dedicated players. Kirk Gibson's attitude shoved dysfunctional teammates together and turned the Diamondbacks into one of the closest clubhouses in baseball. All this translated to greatness on the field. Both the Brewers fans and the Diamondbacks fans matched each other's intensity. And like any great teams, the home games were won by the home teams.
When Game Five arrived, the fans outside of Arizona and Wisconsin didn't want the series to end. And it seemed the teams didn't either. The Diamondbacks jumped out to an early lead, then the Brewers leap-frogged in front. After squandering a bases-loaded situation in the eighth, it looked like the Diamondbacks season would be coming to an end, but they roared back to tie it in the ninth. But the never-say-die attitude and the power drawn from the passionate Brewers fans would not allow them to lose. In the bottom of the tenth the Brewers scored and propelled themselves to their first play-off series win since 1982.
Finally, the Cardinals and Phillies capped off the slew of Game Fives.
After the Cardinals were out-scored 14-3 in the last four innings of Game One and first three innings of Game Two combined, it would have been easy for the Cardinals to lay down and act as the welcome mat to the League Championship Series for the Phillies. But they didn't. The Cardinals stormed back and won Game Two.
Back in St. Louis, the Phillies took Game Three and pushed the Cardinals to the brink of elimination. But with the help of a newly dubbed "rally squirrel" who raced across home plate just as Roy Oswalt was delivering his pitch, the Cardinals forced Game Five.
Game Five was a matchup of old friends and Cy Young winners. Both Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter were pitching on full rest and had been at the tops of their games down the final stretch of the season. The pitting of Halladay against Carpenter was like something from a movie script. These two were good friends coming up through the Blue Jays organization and both always wanted to get better. Well, they did and they faced each other in this incredible elimination game.
Halladay made two mistakes in the first inning but was dominant throughout the rest of his eight innings. On any other night an eight inning, one run performance would likely have given the Phillies the win, but Chris Carpenter was better. Carpenter tossed a three-hit, complete game shut-out. His performance can be classified as one of the best in postseason history. Now, the Cardinals move on to face the Brewers.
This postseason has lived up to everything play-off baseball should be. Friends facing each other for the right to keep playing, clutch home runs when a team seems down and out, and payrolls that don't rank in the top-five in all of baseball.
Bring on the League Championship Series.