The 5.5 Hole

If you stay up late enough, you can catch a glimpse of pure domination.  Stay tuned through a Braves game until the ninth and there is a chance you'll see the future of closers in baseball.  At just 5'10", Craig Kimbrel may not seem imposing, but as he winds up and delivers, that thought quickly fades.  Kimbrel tied the rookie saves record last night and will surely eclipse it later this week.  With 40 saves this season, he has pulled even with the mark set last year by rookie Neftali Feliz. 

Kimbrel has a chance to be part of a small group of players in baseball history.  He has never started a Major League game and has been the Braves closer all of this season.  Should Kimbrel choose to stay in the bullpen, unlike Feliz who is widely thought to be moving to the starting rotation next season, he has every opportunity to shut down offenses like only Trevor Hoffman has done before.  Mariano Rivera started 10 games in his career.  Hoffman started none.  At 23 years old, there's nothing stopping Kimbrel from breaking every closer record out there. 

This season, he has compiled a 1.72 ERA in 62.1 innings pitched.  He has struck out a head-spinning 101 batters for a K/9 ratio of 14.5. He's posted an ERA+ of 220 and made his first All-Star Game this season.

Yet, Kimbrel will only be slamming the door shut in the ninth as long as he wants to, or as long as the Braves want him to.  Feliz in Texas decided he wanted to be a starter, so the Rangers went out and picked up two players in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara who can compete for the closer job next season.  If Kimbrel were making $5 million a year, the choice would be out of Kimbrel's hands.  It would be highly unlikely that the Braves would allow their 23 year old stud pitcher to be limited to one inning of work per night.  For that kind of money, they would likely throw him into the mix and have him starting every fifth game.  But Kimbrel is only making $419,000. 

And the beauty, for the Braves, is Kimbrel was drafted by them and they have control of him for at least four years.  He doesn't become arbitration eligible until 2013 and can't become a free agent until 2016.  I'd expect to see the Braves and Kimbrel work on a long-term deal this off-season.  The Braves are in a position that many teams dream of.  They can lock Kimbrel in to a deal now, without over-paying later. 

No matter what they do, Kimbrel's highlight reel season will go down in history.  With 32 games left to play, it would not be surprising to see Kimbrel reach 50 saves.  And as the Braves enter the play-offs in a probable match-up against the offense-heavy Brewers, any lead in the ninth will need extra protection.  Kimbrel looks ready for the job. 

As the innings slip away and the Braves find themselves with a lead, don't go to sleep, don't leave the ballpark early.  Stay up for the late show.  The late late show with Craig Kimbrel.  

It was announced today that the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Toronto Blue Jays pulled off a three player waiver period trade. The Diamondbacks put a claim in for Aaron Hill and John McDonald. In exchange they sent Kelly Johnson to Toronto.

If you didn't know where the Dbacks stood in the National League West standings, this would seem like a pretty good deal. The Jays are getting a veteran second baseman with some pop to help compete with the juggernaut that is the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Diamondbacks are shedding a player who was due for free agency at the end of the season, grabbing a couple of players to fill holes, and dropping a couple million off payroll. Sounds like a move designed to build toward the future doesn't it?

But the future is now. The Diamondbacks are in first place and need every bit of help they can get to push toward the postseason. Generally I'm not one to question a move made by GM Kevin Towers, but this one is a head-scratcher.

Here are the 2011 numbers:

Kelly Johnson: .209/.287/.412, 18 HR, 13 SB, 44 BB, 0.2 WAR, 2 RAR

Aaron Hill: .225/.270/.313, 6 HR, 16 SB, 23 BB, -0.3 WAR, -3 RAR

John McDonald: .250/.285/.345, 2 HR, 2 SB, 8 BB, 0.9 WAR, 9 RAR

With Stephen Drew out for the season, I can see the Dbacks desire to plug the shortstop hole with a veteran. But they gave up a veteran second baseman with some power for a player in Aaron Hill who doesn't even provide more benefit than a Triple-A replacement. As for McDonald, he is a free agent after this year and I'm not sure the Diamondbacks will be re-signing him.

Maybe Kevin Towers has a master plan behind this surprising move, but right now, it looks like the Diamondbacks forgot they were a team in contention. Right now this trade looks like a wash at best, but it certainly does not look like a move designed to make the team better as they head toward a possible date with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Don't watch Justin Verlander pitch. Just don't do it. If you have anything else to do, chores, dinner, work, or school, don't watch the Tigers' ace throw a single pitch. If you do, you won't stop until he's done. His lightning fastballs and mind-boggling breaking balls remind us all why we are on the couch and not in a batter's box. The very idea of facing a 100 MPH fastball from Justin Verlander is scary enough, but knowing he can back it up with a devastating slider or any number if off-speed pitches is purely terrifying.

Yesterday, Verlander won his 19th game of the season. Depending on play-off positioning and rest for the start of the postseason, Verlander could have six more starts. He may not win them all, but he has won his last seven straight, so who knows. If he wins all six starts, that will put him at 25 wins. What does that mean in a recent historical context?

In the last 10 seasons, only Randy Johnson has reached even 24 wins. The last pitcher to win 25 games was Bob Welch in 1990. If Verlander can defy the odds (which is kind of his thing right?), he may become the first pitcher in over 20 years to win 25 games.

But what are the chances of that happening?

Verlander has started 28 games. He has won 19 and lost 5. That means he has 4 no-decisions. 5 losses out of 28 comes to an 18% chance of a loss. 4 no-decisions out of 28 starts comes to a 14% chance of a no-decision. Combined, Verlander has a 32% chance of not getting a win in any given start. If we carry that through to the estimated 34 starts Verlander will make this year, we come up with a total of 10.88 games that will not be won overall. Since Verlander already has 9 games of combined losses and no-decisions, he may be looking at two more starts where he doesn't get a win. If that does in fact happen, Verlander will finish the year with 23 wins.

Clearly, the probabilities we are working with are based on a relatively small sample size, so it is very possible for Verlander to win more or less games down the stretch. No matter the final total, each time Justin Verlander pitches, it becomes compelling television.

So if you can afford to be sucked in, if you have nothing important to do, setlle in to Verlander's next start. Allow him to mesmerize you with dominant pitching reminiscent of Hall of Famers long since passed. Allow him to paint a picture of pitching excellence as he pushes the Tigers toward a division crown and himself towards history.

But if you don't have the time, don't tune in. All it will take is one pitch and Verlander will have you hooked.