The 5.5 Hole

According the Fangraphs stats glossary, "Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average."

FIP adjusts for fielding luck, fielding talent, and all those things a pitcher truly can't control. Generally speaking, FIP is a better indicator of future performance. The theory being that a pitcher whose defense has performed exceptionally well will have a lower ERA, but once that fielding performance inevitably levels off, the pitcher's ERA may rise. The opposite is true as well. If a pitcher has a high ERA but a lower FIP, the ERA should come down as the team's defense begins to play better.

In looking at the top-ten ERA's for this season, I became curious which pitcher has the biggest gap.

1) Johnny Cueto: 1.89 ERA/3.45 FIP
2) Jered Weaver: 2.10 ERA/2.84 FIP
3) Justin Verlander: 2.31 ERA/2.69 FIP
4) Josh Beckett: 2.46 ERA/3.40 FIP
5) Ryan Vogelsong: 2.47 ERA/3.57 FIP
6) Tim Lincecum: 2.53 ERA/2.85 FIP
7) Roy Halladay: 2.56 ERA/2.12 FIP
8) Clayton Kershaw: 2.60 ERA/2.55 FIP
9) Cole Hamels: 2.62 ERA/2.64 FIP
10) Justin Masterson: 2.71 ERA/2.92 FIP

Now, I'll rank the players based on their gap (FIP - ERA).

1) Roy Halladay: -0.44
2) Clayton Kershaw: -0.05
3) Cole Hamels: 0.02
4) Justin Masterson: 0.21
5) Tim Lincecum: 0.32
6) Justin Verlander: 0.38
7) Jered Weaver: 0.74
8) Josh Beckett: 0.94
9) Ryan Vogelsong: 1.10
10) Johnny Cueto: 1.56

Based in this list, it would seem Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw are likely pitching better than their ERA's would suggest. It would also seem that Johnny Cueto's ERA may not be something he can maintain beyond this season.

Yesterday was a special day for the San Diego Padres, Trevor Hoffman, and baseball. Yet, baseball failed to notice. Like missing its own surprise party, ignoring subtle hints, or getting distracted by a new toy, baseball completely forgot what a special day yesterday was. Perception is reality, but that's not fair or true. Reality is reality. And Trevor Hoffman deserves better from the game he loved and dominated for so long.

Yesterday, in a ceremony that delayed the start of the game by almost an hour, Trevor Hoffman's number 51 jersey was retired. Enshrined with greats like Dave Winfield, Steve Garvey, Randy Jones, and Tony Gwynn, the number 51 will be forever off-limits to anyone donning the Friars' colors. The ceremony was both touching, sad, happy, and inspiring. It reminded San Diego of Trevor Time. It reminded the city of the event that was watching Hoffman come jogging to the mound from centerfield, the tolling of Hell's Bells blasting through the sound system. But baseball across the country failed to notice.

The retirement ceremony was conspicuously missing from the top stories of many major baseball websites. ESPN did not even mention it in their top stories. Sports Illustrated gave it a four-word headline buried under stories of Pujols' 31st home run, the Tigers win, and A-Rod's return. Only Yahoo Sports gave the ceremony any sort of top story recognition. And it's all because Hoffman is perceived as second best if that.

Mariano Rivera has a decent shot at breaking Hoffman's all-time saves record this season. Rivera has pitched in a career's worth more play-off games than Hoffman. Rivera has always performed on the biggest stage. Yet Hoffman's accomplishments should not be forgotten and diminished because of this. Instead, they should be viewed in a different light.

On a team known more for futility than success, Trevor Hoffman managed to rack up 552 saves in 16 seasons. He averaged 34.5 saves per season. He was top-ten is MVP voting twice and top-ten in Cy Young voting 4 times. He was an All-Star 7 times. But most importantly, Trevor Hoffman redefined what it meant to be a closer. The passion and energy he brought to every appearance was unparalleled. When John Smoltz moved to the closer role after years of starting pitching, he adopted a Hoffman-like entrance utilizing Metalica's Enter Sandman rather than AC/DC's Hell's Bells. Since then, the sight of a closer entering the game from the bullpen has become a rock concert-like event.

But atmosphere, surface level success, and records may not be enough. With Rivera as his true competition (and both will likely make the Hall of Fame at some point), a statistical comparison is in order.

ERA: 2.87 for Hoffman, 2.23 for Rivera.
IP: 1,089.1 for Hoffman, 1,198 for Rivera.
SO: 1,133 for Hoffman, 1,095 for Rivera.
K/9: 9.63 for Hoffman, 8.23 for Rivera.
BABIP: .265 for Hoffman, .262 for Rivera.
WAR: 38.0 for Hoffman, 55 for Rivera.
WAR/GM: 0.04 for Hoffman, 0.05 for Rivera.
FIP: 4.13 for Hoffman, 2.77 for Rivera.

As you can see, Rivera is better in almost every category, but Hoffman is very close. The only categories in which Rivera dominates is WAR and FIP. Yet the question lingers, if most people consider Rivera a lock for the Hall of Fame and Hoffman's numbers aren't too far off, why doesn't Hoffman get a little more respect from the baseball community when he receives the highest honor a team can bestow upon a player?

Trevor Hoffman failed to perform when the lights were brightest, a blown save in the World Series, a blown save in the All-Star Game, a blown save to clinch the division, and a blown save in a one-game play-off, but he was also not given many opportunities to redeem himself. Playing for the Padres cost Hoffman the opportunity to consistently perform in the postseason.

But even still, he did what no one before him had ever done. Doesn't that at very least deserve a little recognition, perhaps even celebration, outside of San Diego when his number is retired?

Hopefully the honeymoon isn't over. Throughout the entire season, both the players and the owners have refrained from propaganda and vitriol in regards to the current Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire this offseason. By all accounts, both sides seemed relatively in tune with what needs to be done and focused on getting a deal done quickly after the season ends. Unlike Football and Basketball, sports with new agreements revolving so much around money, Baseball doesn't have revenue issues to hammer out. Worst case scenario, they hit a dead-lock on an extra Wild Card team or re-alignment. If that were the case, both sides could easily shelf the discussion and still get a deal done.

Then, two bombs dropped like secret assassins in the night. The first was Baseball's first positive HGH test for a Minor League player, resulting in a 50-game ban. The second, and probably more troubling of the two, was Bud Selig's reaction to how much teams like the Pirates were paying their draft picks.

Former Major Leaguer Mike Jacobs, who was currently struggling through a Minor League stint with Colorado's Triple-A affiliate, became the first professional baseball player to test positive for HGH. Testing was implemented in Minor League Baseball in July 2010. Major League Baseball has yet to implement the testing, but will surely be faced with questions during CBA negotiations. The players and Union are worried about the perceived invasion of privacy that blood testing for HGH represents. This news was followed by Bud Selig's reaction to draft pick signings.

The Pirates paid a reported $17 million in guaranteed money to their 2011 draft picks, a strategy designed to provide long-term, home-grown talent. According to Sports Illustrated, Major League teams spent a combined $236 million. Bud Selig was not happy about this, and word from the ownership meetings was that he is looking to impose a hard cap on draft signings.

Let's address the first issue. HGH testing is being done in the NFL, and given Baseball's track record for PED use, will not be leaving Minor League Baseball anytime soon. Player concerns over blood testing are understandable. The privacy concerns are legitimate. Should the tests reveal any other diseases or ailments, the players have little trust that this information will remain private. Just look at the Mitchell Report for proof that anonymous doesn't really mean anonymous in Baseball. The importance of maintaining what's left of the game's integrity will likely outweigh player concerns. Testing in the Minors will remain, but it still may be awhile before we see such testing with Major League players. It will come though.

Unlike the player concerns addressed above, the contracts paid to draft picks is an ownership concern. At least that's what we are meant to believe considering Bud Selig essentially represents the owners. The problem with Selig's desire for a hard cap on draft signings in Baseball, and why the new NFL rookie pay-scale system couldn't work in Baseball, is because the closest thing Major League Baseball has to a salary cap is the luxury tax. To impose any sort of cap on baseball would be a large change to a system, that while often criticized, has faired pretty well over the years. The slippery slope concern of a draft pick hard cap leading to an overall salary cap is very real.

While it would be easy to say players and owners should just compromise, that's not as easy a solution as it sounds. You have one player issue and one owner issue right? So the players make a concession and the owners make a concession. All solved. Wrong. The players feel strongly about their opposition to blood testing, and Bud Selig feels strongly about the need for a draft pick hard cap.

Things have been tame on the CBA front up to this point, but come the offseason, I'm concerned the honeymoon might be over.