The 5.5 Hole

Chuck Norris would be proud. These Rangers are dominating the Wild West, hanging with the Evil Empire, and giving Red Sox Nation a run.

The Texas Rangers were clinging to first in the American League West just two weeks ago. One month ago the Rangers had fallen out of first place and were struggling to remain above .500. The AL West was looking like its winner may not need a very good record.

But that all changed 11 games ago. The Rangers are suddenly the hottest, if not best, team in baseball. Their combination of power, aggressiveness on the base paths, and pitching has completely gelled during the win streak, and the Rangers are sitting on a four game lead over the Angels.

The Rangers have done all this while staring down perhaps the biggest question facing the team at the start of the season: Pitching. With Cliff Lee's departure, there was concern as to whether Texas could maintain their hold on the AL West. They had the hitting. They rank 2nd in runs scored, 2nd in slugging percentage, and 2nd in batting average. But if they didn't have the pitching, could they continue to compete?

The Rangers are about middle of the pack in wins, opponent batting average, and WHIP. Where they shine though is in quality starts. A by-product of Nolan Ryan's ownership philosophy of letting pitchers go deeper into the game, the Rangers currently rank 3rd in quality starts (starts where a pitcher goes at least 6 innings and give up 3 runs or less).

Letting their pitchers go longer in the games and working through jams has led to more confidence among the staff. And it's not just the pitchers noticing the change. In an article on MLB.com, Ian Kinsler said, "These guys in the rotation that didn't realize their potential are realizing it now and understanding what they are capable of doing."

With a continued pitching focus in Texas, expect the Rangers to add a bullpen arm or two and continue to push towards another AL West crown. The torch has been passed once again in the West. The A's had their run. Then the Angels. Now, the Rangers are proving it's not how you start the season, it's how you finish.

When selling a product, you have to have a hook. Something that sinks deep into the consumer, reels them in, then keeps them coming back. In baseball that can be a winning season, a nightly gimmick (usually pretty ineffective), or a player that simply puts butts in the seats.

As I sat at the Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers game last night, I couldn't help but think how little I cared about either team. Sure the Dodgers are a circus side show of off-the-field issues, and the Dbacks are in contention after a terrible 2010 campaign. But still, I didn't care about any of that as I sat among the 28,000 other fans.

What made this game so interesting to me were the players. I came to the park excited to see Matt Kemp and Andre Either. I was excited to see Justin Upton swing the bat and Chris Young play the outfield. These players may not be superstars (Matt Kemp is sure on his way though), but they are definitely stars. They are the types of players that help sell tickets and bring casual fans to the park. And Matt Kemp didn't disappoint as he blasted a laser shot off the middle of the center field hitter's backdrop.

As I watched these players and the reactions they drew from fans, I thought about the star power of other teams. Or lack thereof. The Yankees have plenty of players who could probably draw on their own. The Red Sox have Big Papi and Adrian Gonzalez. The Phillies have Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee among others. The Rangers have Josh Hamilton. Most teams have someone they can call their star, but what do the Padres have?

Heath Bell is the biggest star for San Diego, but he is a reliever. His child-like love of the game, his playful attitude, and his intensity on the mound make him a fan favorite. The problem is in the unpredictability of his appearances. With most stars, fans know day in and day out they can come to the park and see that player. The Padres don't have that.

Adrian Gonzalez was that player last year. Jake Peavy before that. Now though, Ryan Ludwick is arguably the best player on the roster. And he will be gone soon if all reports are accurate. Even still, I don't see Ludwick as that seat filling star. Not like his former teammate Albert Pujols.

How has this lack of true star power translated to attendance? Last year, the Padres finished 11th out of 16 NL teams in attendance, and that was with Adrian Gonzalez. This year, they are currently ranked 12th in attendance. Not much of a change for losing their biggest star.

Yet, when I think of an average fan, not someone like me who would sit through a 1-0 pitchers duel between the Royals and A's, going to a game, I wonder if a lack of stars is going to fill the seats. With the price of tickets, concessions, and parking, it's no wonder why some teams struggle to fill the seats.

While I'll always enjoy going to ball games, give the fans some star power so spending an arm and a leg is a little more justifiable.

Up to the time of his injury, Jose Reyes was the hands down, stop even debating, foregone conclusion, lock for the National League MVP. Now though, Andrew McCutchen is giving him a run for his money. And here's the biggest difference; McCutchen is playing for a first place team (as of end of play on Friday).

Let's take a quick look at their stats coming into Saturday, then we will jump into the meat and potatoes of our discussion.

Jose Reyes:

Andrew McCutchen:




Jose Reyes' batting average blows McCutchen out of the water, but how about the on-base percentages?  McCutchen is sitting on a .390 OBP while Reyes has a similar .398.  Reyes has more hits and more stolen bases, but McCutchen has more walks and more home runs.  But here's the kicker, McCutchen has 24 more RBI's than Reyes.  Jose Reyes has accounted for 97 runs between RBI's and runs scored.  McCutchen has accounted for 110. 

Really, these two players are so evenly matched, the normal stat line doesn't do this debate justice.  It's like picking between scrambled eggs or an omlet.  It's like choosing curly fires or straight cut.  Forget about the large gap in batting averages for a minute and just look at those stat lines.  Reyes and McCutchen have the exact same amount of doubles.  Reyes has 11 more triples, but McCutchen has 11 more home runs.  The difference between slugging percentage is only .021.  And the difference between OPS (slugging percentage plus on-base percentage) is just .030.

Let's take a look at Fangraph's WAR rating for each of these two.  Not suprisingly, they both rate at a 5.2 WAR for the 2011 season.

So what distinguishes these two talents.  Their position in the field?  Maybe.  Andrew McCutchen's defense in the outfield has given him an 8.3 Ultimate Zone Rating by Fangraphs.  This rating measures the runs above the MLB average saved by defense.  (The MLB average used for the purpose of this stat is 0).  Jose Reyes is currently rated 1.0.  However, this stat can be somewhat misleading.  If we use career averages, McCutchen's three years and Reyes' eight years, we get a much different picture.  Jose Reyes' UZR for his career is 17.6.  However, McCutchen's is only -6.7.

The true test of an MVP candidate's impact on the game are not just the statistics he puts up.  They are the intangibles.  Andrew McCutchen is leading a Pittsburgh Pirates team that lost 105 games last season to first place coming into Saturday.  Jose Reyes is the best player on a Mets team that is so deep in financial problems some might consider them the Junior Varsity version of the Dodgers.  McCutchen is 24 years old with many more productive years ahead of him.  Jose Reyes is often viewed as injury-prone and at 28 years old, likely has about six good years at shortstop left.

McCutchen hits for power and average.  He draws walks.  He is well-liked.  While Jose Reyes is having a great season, is well-liked himself, and has had a productive major league career to date, the very definition of Most Valuable Player precludes him from consideration in my book.  The Most Valuable Player is the player that contributes the most to his team and provides the most value.  Jose Reyes is absolutely the MVP of the Mets.  Hands down.  But, Andrew McCutchen is the MVP of the league.

History tells us a team's record has little to do with the MVP voting, but in this case preference points need to be awarded.  The Pirates have, for eighteen years, been a team so deep in disappointment, their opponents could almost guarantee themselves a series win each and every time out.  Andrew McCutchen has helped turn that around.  He has helped the Pirates climb to the top.  Whether they stay there or not is up in the air, but 91 games is a pretty good sample size when gauging success.

Jose Reyes may be earning himself a fat paycheck after this season, but McCutchen may be earning much more; Success and pride for a team that's been missing those two things for almost two decades.