The 5.5 Hole

This has been well covered by now, and probably forgotten after Wednesday night's greatness, but Jose Reyes broke a cardinal rule of competition. The Mets didn't do it, Jose Reyes did it. And he didn't break an unwritten rule of baseball, he broke a written rule of sports and of people dedicated to being the best.

Reyes would have won the batting title regardless with Ryan Braun throwing down an 0-5 night, but when he took himself out of the game after his bunt single, Reyes showed how concerned he was and how focused he was on personal success. The Mets weren't playing for anything. Their game was over well before the drama and intrigue of Wednesday night's masterpieces. Yet the fans came to the park to see Reyes and possibly bid him farewell.

In looking for a huge offseason contract, Reyes may very well leave the Mets. And if he does, the city of New York will have one final memory; Reyes walking off the field after a first inning single at his own request. I'm not going to make the Ted Williams comparisons. That's been done enough. I'll simply say that true competitors want to be on the field until the final the out of the season.

Jose Reyes has always seemed like a likable guy. He's always seemed to play hard. He may be injury-prone, but he always tried. Now, I question his commitment. I question his focus. The Mets could have said "no, you're playing," but ultimately, Reyes had to make this decision, and he made the wrong one.

The fans are barely out of downtown after last night's finale, yet hitting coach, Randy Ready, is already gone. The Padres announced today Ready would not be returning to the Padres for 2012.

It's unfortunate. Petco Park was built to allow the Padres to compete with a less than enviable payroll. It was designed so that even mediocre (read: cheap) pitchers could excel. The offense was of little concern because, hey, the Padres can't afford offense anyway. However, the club seems strangely surprised by the lack of offense every season. This year's victim was Randy Ready.

Here's where the Padres ranked in runs scored since Petco Park opened:

2004: 8th
2005: 13th
2006: 13th
2007: 9th
2008: 16th
2009: 15th
2010: 12th
2011: 15th

Two finishes better than 12th out of 16 NL teams in eight years. This seems more like what the Padres had planned for when building Petco rather than a failure of any one hitting coach.

In the two and a half years as the Padres hitting coach, Ready oversaw the continued development of Adrian Gonzalez, the increased efficiency of Chase Headley, the temporary resurgence of Yorvit Torrealba, and the turn around of Cameron Maybin. For his part the Padres showed him the door. Unfortunately, the organization failed to evaluate Ready, or any other hitting coach, in a manner that suited the club's unique style.

The fact is, Ready helped the Padres to a rather respectable 195-208 record in his time with the club. Excluding this season his record is even better at 124-117.

The Padres seem to have, at the hitting coach position, the same syndrome the Marlins have at manager. The can't-get-a-new-one-quick-enough syndrome. With the club's commitment to spend more on winning, one can only hope they will show some commitment at the hitting coach position.

For anyone who missed it, the last two days of baseball have been the greatest in history.  In history!  More specifically, last night was the greatest single night in regular season history.  These were games 162 for the teams involved, but there was no question, last night was play-off baseball. 

Many will argue last night's place in history, but until someone gives me a scenario greater than four teams battling for the final two play-off spots with two of those teams on the verge of the greatest comebacks in history, last night ranks supreme.  You don't need a recap, but here you go.

The Rays were nine games behind the Red Sox in the AL Wild Card chase when September kicked off.  The Cardinals were eight and a half games behind the Braves in very early September.  Both of these teams went on incredible runs to pull into a Wild Card tie heading into the last game of the season.  This set up the picture-in-picture creator's dream situation.  Four games, all with play-off implications.  The Rays were facing the Yankees, the Red Sox were facing the Orioles, the Cardinals were facing the Astros, and the Braves were facing the Phillies. 

But even with the drama leading into last night, no one could have predicted the excitement that was yet to come.  The fan bases in Boston and Atlanta will never see the beauty of last night.  I understand that.  As a Padres fan who watched that team lose a one-game play-off to the Rockies in thrilling fashion in 2007, I understand the pain of defeat will always block out the euphoria of baseball greatness. 

The Cardinals quickly put pressure on the Braves by running away with their game.  And the Braves seemed to respond.  With a one-run lead going into the ninth, they had their great rookie closer, Craig Kimbrel, on the mound.  But he blew it.  The Red Sox were leading in the seventh when rain threatened to end the game.  But after a delay of about an hour and half, the game resumed with the Red Sox maintaining their lead into the ninth.  But the Red Sox dominant closer, Jonathan Papelbon, blew it.  The Rays seemed dead in the water all game.  They were losing 7-0 until the bottom of the eighth.  Then magic happened.  The Rays scored six runs, capped by an Evan Longoria three-run home run, and headed into the ninth down only one run.  In the ninth, Dan Johnson happened.  In the 12th, Evan Longoria happened again. 

I've seen the footage of Bobby Thompson's walk-off home run to clinch the pennant for the New York Giants.  They were a team that came back from 13 games back late in August.  Until now, they were the greatest comeback story in baseball history.  I've seen Kirk Gibson's famous home run with two bad knees, I've seen Pudge Fisk waving his home run fair, Joe Carter winning the World Series, and Albert Pujols keeping hope alive for the Cardinals in 2005. 

Last night's home runs by Dan Johnson and Evan Longoria were better than any of those.  I have never been as excited in my life for a single night of baseball as I was last night.  Dan Johnson kept the excitement alive.  In the bottom of the ninth, with two outs, he stepped to the plate.  Dan Johnson?  Really?  He was batting under .200 and had one tater on the year.  It seemed like he was up there just praying he didn't make the final out that ended the Rays season.  With two strikes, he showed me he was up there to keep the Rays alive.  With a laser-shot over the right field wall, Dan Johnson placed himself in history with one of the greatest, most dramatic home runs in history.  Then, Evan Longoria topped him.

In the bottom of the 12th, Evan Longoria stepped to the plate literally seconds after the crowd made it clear that Baltimore had tied the game against Boston.  As Longoria was battling Scott Proctor, the crowd once again came to life.  The Orioles had just scored the winning run against Boston.  The Rays were at very least guaranteed a one-game play-off and maybe a Wild Card berth that night.  Longoria left little time to think about the possibilities.  Four minutes after Baltimore beat Boston, Longoria connected on another laser-shot.  This one, barely clearing the left field wall, placed Longoria on a very short list.  He became only the second player in history to clinch a play-off berth with a walk-off home run on the final day of the season.  Bobby Thompson, meet Evan Longoria. 

These last two days make me wonder if the postseason can top this.  Maybe we should end the season now.  What a wonderful chain of events that lead us to the magic and drama of last night.  Some will use last night as a call to keep the play-off format as is.  Some will still claim the season is far too long.  The fact is, the play-off format is what it is this year.  If the season were shorter, we would have had a Braves team and a Red Sox team limping into the play-offs.  This type of excitement cannot happen in football or basketball.  The NFL's season does not allow for great comebacks in the standings.  The NBA allows just about every team into their postseason. 

Now that it's all over, take a breath, forget about baseball for a day, because play-offs start Friday.  And I can't wait. 

Ozzie Guillen is taking his talents to South Beach. Let me start by thanking LeBron James. Without "The Decision," we never would have had the "taking my talents to South Beach" catch phrase. It's one of the greatest catch phrases relating to a specific destination in history. It's along the same lines as "Meet Me in St. Louis," "heading west," and "going south for the winter." But I digress.

After being let out of his contract yesterday, it looks like Ozzie Guillen will be the first manager of the Miami Marlins. Not to be confused with the Florida Marlins. No, Ozzie is not taking over a cash-strapped team playing in front of 14 fans in a football stadium. He will be taking the helm of a new, win now Marlins club that plays in a air-conditioned, closed, just-for-baseball stadium.

My opinion of Guillen through the years has bounced back and forth worse than an on-again, off-again romance. His fiery, confident ways lead to success. His loud, arrogant ways destroy chemistry. See a difference in those descriptive traits? I didn't think so. Yet, he is the only person to lead the White Sox to a World Title in 80 years. He's the only manager to make the postseason twice during his tenure. And he's just about the only manager with an ego large enough to sustain life as a Chicago manager.

He should bring much of the same to Florida/Miami and more. Hanley Ramirez is a pure talent, but his head gets in the way. He is often insubordinate and disrespectful. The same may be said for prospect Logan Morrison. Whether Morrison develops into the talent many believe he will be has yet to be seen, but if his attitude doesn't change, he may never have a shot. Jack McKeon is great, but he's old, came out of retirement, and is disconnected from today's youth. Ozzie is none of those things. Ozzie may be the most plugged-in manager in baseball. If someone says something about him or his team, he knows it. If his players do something stupid, he knows it. His never-take-nothing-from-nobody attitude may prove to be the Marlins saving grace.

Add to that, the team's pressure to win, and Ozzie may find himself in a pretty comfortable position. The Marlins have managed two World Championships with far less money than the White Sox. Imagine what they can do with a competent manager and a little cash to play around with.

Ozzie is not the picture-perfect manager, and he may rub some people (myself included) the wrong way, but he may be the best fit the Marlins have ever had. Perhaps his fiery, confident, loud, arrogant personality will finally close the managerial revolving door that's always been spinning in Florida.

There's a feeling every kid has when the holidays approach. It's one of wonder, hope, excitement and joy. It's a feeling that I had always thought could never be duplicated. But I have that feeling now. I can feel it in my stomach, I can taste it on my tongue, and I can see it in the air.

A play-off race (or two) so close that it will come down to the last day of the season is the equivalent of Christmas. Its approach seems to take forever, but once it arrives nothing else can penetrate your thoughts. You count the days and hope you get something good. You sneak a peak at the presents under the tree and realize, you've got more than you thought.

After 160 games, we all have more than we thought under the tree. The Red Sox and Rays are tied for the Wild Card. The Braves have only a one game lead in the NL. These last two days will give us exactly what last season gave us. Play-off races down to the end of the season. The Padres, the Giants, and the Braves were all vying for two postseason spots last year. This year, four teams are battling for two spots.

The season will be coming to a close, and a new one will start soon. Like the transitioning seasons that offer a prelude to the holiday season, these changing seasons bring a prelude to baseball excitement. The anticipation of filling the final two spots is unlike anything else except Christmas as a kid. So bring on tomorrow's games and bring on Wednesday's games. Bring on the present as we look forward to the future. This is baseball, this is life, this is my Christmas.

After 14 innings, Boston had something to celebrate.  No, they didn't clinch the Wild Card.  They didn't clinch anything, in fact.  Except maybe some breathing room.  With Tampa Bay winning their game Sunday and Boston losing the first game of their double-header with New York, game two was a must win.  And if you think the Yankees were going to just roll over since they had already clinched everything they could clinch, you'd be dead wrong.

Brett Gardner's steal, playing the in-field in, Mo in the 9th.  The Yankees were playing to spoil the Red Sox season.  And that's what would have happened had Boston lost this game.  Had they lost, the Rays would have been tied with them for the Wild Card and the Angels would have been just one game back.  Instead, both the Red Sox and Yankees played like this was game seven of the World Series, and finally in the 14th inning, the Red Sox broke through with three runs to win it. 

Let's take a look at what this game really means.  Both the Rays and the Red Sox have three games left.  The Red Sox have three against the Orioles, the Rays three against the Yankees.  The Red Sox have their three on the road, and the Rays have their three at home.  The Yankees would be setting their postseason rotation, so the Rays likely won't see the Yankees' best.  The Orioles, on the other hand, have nothing but pride on the line.  Teams like this love to play spoiler, and their fans would love to see them knock the Red Sox out of the play-offs. 

What else?  Well, had Boston lost, they would have completed the biggest collapse in baseball history.  No one had ever had a 9-game lead on September 1st then blown it.  That's exactly what would have happened had the Red Sox lost game two of the double-header.  Sure, there are more games to play and a loss yesterday would not have precluded the Sox from the postseason, but it would have completed a meltdown of historic proportions. 

Let's not forget the added momentum the Rays would have taken from a Red Sox loss.  The Rays are already hot, despite three straight losses to the Yankees last week.  This time around, the Rays will be playing for their postseason lives.  The Yankees will likely be resting their starters.  Tampa Bay, if their fans actually come out to the park, will be rocking in hopes of a miraculous play-off berth. 

Yes, a Boston loss in game two of that double-header yesterday would have changed things, but these last three games should be intense.  While a tie leading into these last three games would have been more interesting, and it will still take quite a bit of work for the Rays to pull of this upset, play-off baseball has already started. 

With the release of Moneyball over the weekend, talk of baseball's financial system are sure to pop back up. Many will make the argument that without a salary cap, baseball cannot have a competitive balance. However, history seems to prove this theory wrong. We'll take a look year-by-year and overall for the last ten seasons.

YEAR-BY-YEAR

Let's start by a year-by-year analysis for the last ten seasons.

2002: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Angels, Braves, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Giants.

2003: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Red Sox, Braves, Cubs, Giants, Marlins.

Three new teams

2004: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Dodgers, Astros.

Four new teams

2005: Yankees, White Sox, Angels, Red Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Padres, Astros.

Two new teams

2006: Yankees, Twins, Athletics, Tigers, Mets, Cardinals, Padres, Dodgers.

Five new teams

2007: Red Sox, Indians, Angels, Yankees, Phillies, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Rockies.

Seven new teams

2008: Rays, White Sox, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers, Brewers.

Four new teams

2009: Yankees, Twins, Angels, Red Sox, Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies.

Four new teams

2010: Yankees, Twins, Rangers, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Reds, Giants.

Five new teams

2011 (Currently): Yankees, Tigers, Rangers, Phillies, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Braves.

Four new teams

The average number of new teams in the postseason year to year is 4.22. Round that down to four and 50% of play-off teams change each year.

LAST TEN SEASONS

Over the last ten seasons, 24 different teams have made the postseason. With 30 teams, this means only six did not make the play-offs in the last ten years.

The Royals, Pirates, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, and Nationals/Expos are the only teams not to make the play-offs in that time. And even the Mariners made the postseason in 2001.

The Yankees, Red Sox, and Phillies have made the most postseasons in the last ten years, but if we are talking parity, the fact that 24 teams have made the play-offs is the bottom line.


I do not dispute the financial inequities in baseball, but baseball's competitive balance is no different than other sports leagues. With a good general manager and manager, teams can compete regardless of payroll. These teams may not make multiple postseasons, but they continue to make it interesting. In another five years, we may see teams like the Pirates, Nationals, and Royals making the play-offs.

Parity is alive and well in baseball.

Last night, 120 grown men and a handful of their coaches transformed into something usually reserved for Little League. These men became jubilant little boys with smiles a mile wide. They jumped and shouted, cheered and clapped. They donned championship shirts and caps, and they took celebratory dips in the pool. The daily grind of playing 162 games slipped away for a night, and these men became the boys they once were, more concerned about celebrating with their friends than multi-million dollar contracts.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewera, and Texas Rangers all clinched division titles last night. Each of them did it at home and were given the opportunity to celebrate with their fans. The Diamondbacks ran around the infield and dog-piled J.J. Putz, then took a trip to the outfield pool. The Rangers sat on the field after their win and watched, with many of the night's fans still in attendance, the Angels lose to the Athletics giving the Rangers the division. The Brewers left little doubt about their division title with monster home runs and great defensive plays. They all experienced the joy that only baseball can bring.

The Diamondbacks, Brewers, and the Rangers joined the Yankees, Phillies, and Tigers as division champs for 2011. Let's take a look at how these three newest entries to the 2011 postseason did it.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

There were two men specifically responsible for the Dbacks success this season, and neither of them played a single game. Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers have changed the culture of this team and helped build the chemistry necessary for success. Kirk Gibson's no-nonsense approach and his championship pedigree made him instantly credible in the clubhouse. His leadership has brought a group of relatively dysfunctional players together. Kevin Towers has continued his tradition of making the most of his trades and signings. He may go down in history as a genius with his Kelly Johnson for Aaron Hill move. Everyone, myself included, thought that was a bad move, but Towers saw something in Hill that none of us could see.

Justin Upton has finally lived up to his potential and is having an MVP caliber season. Maybe it's the comfort he feels with this team. Maybe it's the fact that he isn't the only one expected to produce. Whatever the case, Upton has put all of his talents to use this season and carried the Diamondbacks offensively.

Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson have provided a one-two punch the Diamondbacks haven't seen since Johnson and Schilling led them to the World Series. Kennedy quietly put together a Cy Young caliber season, and Daniel Hudson is continuing to improve as a Diamondback.

Milwaukee Brewers:

Two words: Braun and Fielder. Ryan Braun will likely win the National League MVP, and Fielder is having -well- a Fielder-like season. The Brewers have been together long enough to have multiple veterans leading the team. They've improved their pitching quite a bit since their last play-off appearance, and they are hungry for success.

Zach Greinke has been unstoppable at home, which is part of why the Brewers have also been unstoppable at home. With the best home record in baseball, the Brewers have made it look easy. As they battle with Arizona for home-field advantage during the first round, each game remains increasingly important to a team who doesn't lose at home.

Texas Rangers:

Nolan Ryan has infused new life into this ball club since taking over ownership. With a combination a new pitching philosophies and power hitting, the Ranger have made themselves a force to be reckoned with. Like many great teams before them, much of the Rangers' pitching value comes from a shutdown bullpen. Neftali Feliz, Koji Uehara, Darren Oliver, Mike Adams, and just about anyone else that trots out from that bullpen has been lights out this season.

Then there's the offense. Josh Hamilton has been healthy all of September unlike last season which should give him some confidence and momentum heading into the postseason. He has helped the Ranger widen the gap this month and take the division away from the Angels last night. Nelson Cruz has battled injuries this year, but when healthy has been as good as he always has been. Adrian Beltre has slowly been worked back into the line up after injury, but is already contributing. Beltre's power gives the Rangers another boost that can only help them as they enter the postseason.

All year long, the Rangers have had one of the most potent offenses in the league. Mike Napoli, who is playing out of his mind, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Young, Kinsler. There is not an easy outin this line up. That's why they are back-to-back division champions in the AL West.



Soak in the joy of a division crown boys, but don't linger too long in celebration because there's still work to be done by all of you

In a September 19th article on Beyond the Boxscore, Justin Bopp analyzed Joe Mauer's season against his career numbers and came to the conclusion that Mauer has peaked.  Bopp said, "I'm going to go out on an easy limb here and say that we've already seen his best, and we'll likely never see another 6+ WAR season from Mauer again. Perhaps his 5+ WAR days are behind him as well."

While Bopp is a very good writer, and Beyond the Boxscore is a very good site, the conclusions being reached here are absurd.  I am going to borrow the graphs they used, then perform my own analysis.  Below are from Beyond the Boxscore:














Here's my first problem: the 2011 numbers are drawn from only 333 plate appearances.  That sample size is so small, any conclusions made would be skewed.  For example, in the article Bopp indicates the 2004 ISO numbers should be taken with a grain of salt because they came from only 122 plate appearances.  If we are to ignore, or set aside, the 2004 numbers because of the limited plate appearances, why are we putting so much weight in 2011?

Joe Mauer was not 100% to start this season.  He ended up on the disabled list.  He was rushed back.  He underperformed.  To truly evaluate Mauer's future potential, I think he needs a pass for this year.  But let's take a closer look at the fluctuations in Mauer's stats.

To say that he has already peaked would be to ignore 2006, 2008, 2010.  Did he peak in '06? Or was it in '10?  When a player sees as much fluctuation in his numbers as Joe Mauer does, it is irresponsible to declare him beyond his prime.  Joe Mauer's K% has remained pretty constant.  His ISO has consistently been above 100 except for this season.  If we look at his BB%, Mauer peaked in 2008.  If that's the case, why was he one of the most sought-after free agents before re-signing with the Twins?

By no means do I think Mauer is as good as Johnny Bench was, but let's look at their WAR graphs (courtesy of Fangraphs, Bench - Green, Mauer - Orange):



By utilizing Bopp's logic, it should have been declared that Bench reached his prime at 24.  Yet, he had another up year at 26.  Every player is going to have up and down years.  Take another example (Piazza - Green, Mauer - Orange):



Mike Piazza had 5 seasons of 4 or more WAR after his 28th birthday.  I think there's hope for Mauer yet.

For all those jumping to conclusions about Joe Mauer, let me leave you with one final reminder: Albert Pujols.  Earlier this season, most writers proclaimed the Pujols we all knew and loved was dead.  They declared Pujols all but washed up and on the back end of his career.  Then what happened?  Pujols started hitting.  He is two RBI away from continuing his already record streak of .300/30 HR/100 RBI seasons.  An off year does not mean the end of a career.  I'm sure Joe Mauer will prove this next season.