The 5.5 Hole

Equity is the fuel that powers players and managers.  Equity buys time.  For players, managers, even General Managers, equity keeps contracts alive and forgives shortcomings.  Success, however brief or fleeting, can build that equity.  Carlos Zambrano had it.  A.J. Burnett had it.  Now, when the equity has been burnt up, Zambrano is standing on the side of the road waiving an empty fuel can.  Burnett is coasting in the slow lane, just hoping to make it to his exit.  And Ozzie Guillen is running on fumes.

In an ESPNChicago article, Ozzie Guillen talked about his desire for a contract extension this off-season.  Personal feelings aside, I don't deny the fact that Guillen has been one of the better White Sox managers.  Not great, but better than average.  I don't even dispute the fact that Guillen has a right to want an extension before going into the final year of his contract.  However, the Chicago White Sox are in a pennant race, or at least the closest thing to a pennant race the A.L. Central has to offer.  His focus should be elsewhere.

Jim Riggleman was building a team from the ground up and succeeding with Washington.  He was not in the middle of a pennant race.  He was also not coming to the end of a multi-year contract.  Unlike Guillen's threat to walk out on his team next season if he does not get a new contract, Riggleman had justification.  In September of 2007, Guillen's contract was extended through the 2012 season.  Earlier than that, he had a contract extension in 2005 that was to carry him through 2009.  Guillen hasn't had job security issues in the past.  He has never operated as a "lame-duck manager" as he put it in the ESPNChicago article.  And the timing of Guillen's comments make the situation worse than it should have been.

Ozzie Guillen guided the Chicago White Sox to a World Championship in 2005.  He guided the team to another play-off berth in 2008.  Since then, he's been running on equity.  He may have even been running on equity since the 2005 season considering the White Sox were bounced in the first round of the 2008 play-offs.  Yet, the equity from a World Series title can only last so long.  Especially in a city like Chicago.  Two play-off appearances in eight years is great for a small market club.  It's good for a mid-market club.  It's pretty bad for a big market club like the White Sox. 

It seems as if Ozzie Guillen has built a larger than life image of himself in his head.  He has not won multiple World Series titles.  He has not been a perennial play-off team.  Removing 2005 and 2008 from the equation, Guillen has gone 479-463.  That's only a .508 winning percentage.  Hardly the type of numbers justifying mid-season contract talks and threats.  His volatile temper, his relationship with General Manager Kenny Williams, and his comments to media have burned through his the fuel of his equity faster than a eight-mile-per-gallon Hummer H2. 

Guillen will probably get his contract extension.  He will probably be the White Sox manager for years to come.  But much of this depends on his ability to build more equity.  Demanding a new contract with 29 games left to go in a season where you have had to fight and scrap to remain above .500 does not go a long ways toward remaining with the club.  Guillen will probably realize this and back off a bit.  If not, he could be in trouble.

Owners and General Managers don't usually like it when you pour fuel out the window while already running on fumes. 

I'll still talk about it. I'll still write about it. I'll even still use it to analyze players. But by itself, batting average is as close to useless a stat as you can get. On-base percentage shows everything batting average shows and more.

It's easy to look at a player with a batting average over .300 and think he's a good player. It's simple to just take that stat and assume that hitter can contribute. Yet, succeeding at the plate (success in this case means getting a hit) 30% of the time is impressive only if that player is also getting on base in other ways. Let's take a look at some of the league leaders in batting average verse some of the leaders in on-base percentage. Only players with at least 300 plate appearances will be considered.

Top 5 in batting average:

Adrian Gonzalez .345
Michael Young .336
Jose Reyes .336
Ryan Braun .334
Miguel Cabrera .328

Top 5 in OBP:

Jose Bautista .453
Joey Votto .438
Miguel Cabrera .432
Prince Fielder .409
Adrian Gonzalez .406

There's a bit of variation here, but we still see two of the same players we saw on the BA list. Let's break this down further.

The league average for BA and OBP are .255 and .320 respectively. There are currently 19 players who are at .255 or lower in batting average but higher than .320 in OBP. Conversely, there 14 players whose BA is at or above league average but have an OBP lower than league average.

Let's take this analysis deeper, to a specific player level. Prince Fielder is hitting .295, which is nothing to ignore and a very nice average. But it's only 15.7% higher than the league average. I'd be willing to bet a quick salary check reveals Fielder's pay to be more than 15.7% higher than league average, so hopefully he's contributing elsewhere. And he is. In home runs and OBP. His .409 OBP ranks him 27.8% better than league average.

Below are three other players whose BA's wouldn't suggest they are much more special than average but their OBP's do:

Lance Berkman: .289 BA (13.3% better than average)/.405 OBP (26.5% better than average)

Nick Swisher: .267 BA (4.7% better than average)/.383 OBP (19.7% better than average)

Kevin Youkalis: .266 BA (4.3% better than average)/.380 OBP (18.8% better than average)

Finally, there are more players with a higher than average OBP than there are players with a higher than average BA. There is quite a bit of talent out there being undervalued because of batting average alone.

Many articles have touched on BA vs. OBP, and it seems increasingly clear that batting average means far less than OBP. So as I continue to hypocritically analyze players based on batting average and be awed by players hitting for a high average, remember OBP means so much more.

I've always been amazed by what it takes to win a baseball game. There are so many pieces. It's not as simple as scoring more runs than your opponent. There's hitting, pitching, defense, and base running. Speed, focus, fielding, restraint, and analysis. Every pitch or hit or run or out is a culmination of any number of these pieces.

Wins are pieces of other aspects of the game. Last week, I took a look at run differential as a piece of winning. I adjusted the standings for run differential only. In the same spirit, I will adjust the standings based on unearned runs (runs not charged to a pitcher that resulted from some sort of error). The team with the least would lead the division, etc.

American League East:
Tampa Bay: 31
Boston: 41
New York Yankees: 46
Toronto: 50
Baltimore: 63

American League Central:
Chicago White Sox: 35
Kansas City: 41
Detroit: 52
Cleveland: 52
Minnesota: 65

American League West:
Los Angeles Angels: 39
Seattle: 42
Texas: 63
Oakland: 73

National League East:
Philadelphia: 29
Atlanta: 31
Florida: 50
New York Mets: 54
Washington: 61

National League Central:
Cincinnati: 34
Milwaukee: 51
Pittsburgh: 53
St. Louis: 64
Houston: 70

National League West:
Los Angeles: 35
Colorado: 45
Arizona: 49
San Francisco: 50
San Diego: 56

If wins were as simple as giving up the least unearned runs, things would look very different in both leagues. The Dodgers would be able to forget the disaster that is Frank McCourt and focus on the postseason. Cincinnati would be looking at a second straight division title. The Angels would be battling Seattle not Texas. Kansas City would be fighting for a play-off spot for the first time in a generation. And Tampa Bay would be outlasting the juggernauts of New York and Boston.

Unlike the run differential standings, these standing show a large deviation from the true standings. This begs the question; how much does defense actually mean?

Fielding is one of the most difficult aspects of the game to properly evaluate, but it seems clear that poor defense leads to errors. I will agree that many errors are not errors or are charged to the wrong person. There are many flaws with the error statistic, but it's what we are working with here.

Based on these adjusted standings, it would seem many teams can simply out-slug their defensive mistakes. Further evidence that too much value is applied to defense.

Win at home and split on the road. Usually that's a pretty good recipe for success. If a team can win 40 of it's 81 road games and put together a solid winning percentage at home, that team will have a good shot at the post season. What happens when that team wins on the road and at home?

The Milwaukee Brewers have won 50 games at home so far this season. They've won 31 on the road. The Brewers could lose every game for the rest of the year and still post a respectable home record and an overall record of .500. But they won't lose the rest of their games. My money is on winning, and a lot of it.

The 1961 Yankees won 65 games at home. The 1975 Reds won 64. For the Brewers to reach the Yankees mark, they'd have to win every remaining home game. They can lose one and still match the Reds' National League record. Neither feat is likely, but the Brewers will win more home games. If they maintain their season-long pace, they should win 11 more games.

Yesterday, I explored why the Brewers were so far ahead in terms of wins and losses. Today I'll take a look at performance.

Let's start with WAR. Prince Fielder and Ryan Braun combine for 10.2 WAR. Only the Cardinals have more players ranked in the top-15 in WAR rankings. Fielder has the third highest OBP among N.L. first basemen. Braun has stolen 30 bases in 34 attempts. Most sabermetricians will tell you stolen bases are worthless unless you succeed 70% of the time. Braun succeeds 88% of the time.

As a team they don't strike out much and they walk a lot. They pitch well, posting a respectable 15.5 WAR in pitching alone. Brewers pitchers are stranding 72.3% of base runners.

But even with their impressive numbers, the Brewers don't lead any one category in pitching or hitting. They seem to use what they have (which is not bad by any stretch) better than other teams. Maybe they get a little lucky in the process too. Their Pythagorean record is just 74-61 after all. But sometimes a little luck sprinkled in with skill leads to championships.

As the Brewers continue to put space between themselves and the rest of the division, they also continue to gain ground on the Phillies for the best record in the National League.

Most of my predictions this season have gone horribly wrong, but this one has been so very right.

Every year a handful of teams start the season in "rebuilding" mode. These teams take their limited payrolls and devote their cash toward the future. They settle for mediocrity in the hopes of a better future. The question is why?

In what other business, and make no mistake about it baseball is a business, can an owner sit back and simply say "not this year?" To quit before you begin leads to complete and utter failure. But not in baseball. In baseball it is completely understandable to begin the season with a goal that would seem counter-intuitive to the sport. These teams have a "rebuilding" goal that essentially forfeits the season.This happens because baseball is socialism-lite.  Revenue sharing helps off-set any losses the small market teams may have.  Rather than push for higher attendance, rather than make their own money, many team settle for the extra cash paid by those teams hit by the luxury tax. 

But it doesn't have to be that way.  Losing is not the crime here.  Not trying is.  If a team is striving toward success every year, the fans will come.  Baseball should be a constant experiment in winning.  Don't have a lot of money to work with?  That's fine.  Figure out new ways to win.  The Seattle Mariners have done it, the Oakland A's have done it, and the Tampa Bay Rays have done it.  Sustained long-term success is the difficulty here, but the key is innovation.  Much like a pitcher who has found a hitter's weak spot at the plate, adjustments should always be made.  If that hitter wants to remain in the big leagues, he will find a way to adjust to that pitch to keep from getting out. 

During every off-season, rather than resign to another losing year, teams should be brainstorming.  What has worked for other teams?  What hasn't worked?  Why have the successes of other teams stopped working?  Research and development.  Experimenting.  Trying. 

Just take a look at the last-place team in each division.  They can easily shrug their failure off as rebuilding years, but they shouldn't.  They should be giving the fans reason to hope.  Come out and tell them the goal is to win.  Show the fans you are trying.  Prove to them that, even if the team loses, you are not simply allowing the team to wallow in failure in hopes of a great year decades from now.  Success should be a constant goal.  The fans deserve that.  To fail while trying to be successful means you tried.  To fail while building for the future means you gave up. 

The best way to make a profit in baseball is to attract fans.  It seems like simple enough logic doesn't it?  The more people who attend a baseball game, the more ticket sales the team will have, the more concession stand purchases, the more team shop purchases.  Even the smallest market ball club has plenty of fans just hoping and wishing for the opportunity to go to a game and cheer on a winning team.  They flip on the television and see game's like Sunday night's Ranger/Angels game.  They see the intensity, the crowd, the energy.  And they wish they could be part of it.  But they stay home.  Their team is in a "rebuilding" year, and disposed of any real hope on Opening Day. 

Again, losing isn't the issue here.  The concept of rebuilding is.  For teams like the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Kansas City Royals, and any other perrennial losers, what are you rebuilding?  Are you rebuilding the success of the '70's, the '80's, or even the '90's?  Those teams and players are long gone.  What you're left with is the here and the now.  The development of young players is perfectly fine.  But the goal is to run a Major League franchise.  Not a Triple-A club. 

With this in mind, stop promoting the idea of rebuilding.  Stop dreaming of the future.  Forget about getting lucky and finding a cheap ball club with All-Star talent.  Get on the phones and the internet and search.  Lock your executives in a board room and brain storm.  Start your experiment now.  Test your hypotheses.  Squeeze success out of every limited dollar you have because the future is not 10 years from now.  The future is today. 

The Brewers have a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals, a 13 game lead over the Reds, and a 17 game lead over the Pirates.  All season long, the run away division seemed to be the National League East with the Phillies dominating and the Braves bringing up the Wild Card.  Now, the Braves are 6 games back and at least within striking distance.  The Brewers, on the other hand, have opened up a virtually insurmountable lead.

How did this all happen?  On August 1st, the N.L. Central standings looked like this:

Milwaukee: 60-49
St. Louis: 57-21 -- 2.5 GB
Pittsburgh: 55-52 -- 4 GB
Cincinnati: 54-55 -- 6 GB

Since then, all Milwaukee has done is have one of the all-time great months.  In August, the Brewers have gone 20-5, scored 131 runs, and only gave up 77 runs. The National League records for wins is 29, held by the New York Giants.  While the Brewers won't be able to reach that total, they still have three more games this month.

While the Brewers have been winning, everyone else has been losing.  The Cardinals went 12-13 in August so far, the Pirates went 7-18, and the Reds went 12-11.  What's probably more frustrating for the fans is that each of these three teams added pieces at the trade deadline in an attempt to compete for the division. 

The Cardinals traded away Colby Rasmus but picked up Edwin Jackson.  The Pirates added Ryan Ludwick and Derek Lee.  The Reds traded Jonny Gomes to the Nationals for cash, outfielder Bill Rhinehart, and pitcher Chris Manno. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers stood pat for the most part.  They did trade Erik Komatsu for Jerry Hairston Jr., and they traded Wil Nieves for cash.  Hardly moves designed to bolster their line-up or change their make-up.  The Brewers gelled as a team while other teams were adding new pieces.  They rallied around each other, the players they had battled with all season long, and put so much ground between the Cardinals and themselves that they are almost a lock for the play-offs.  In doing so they now own the third best record in all of baseball. 

So even though the race is all but over, we can delight in the dominance of the Milwaukee Brewers.  We can revel in their success.  Or we can hate their fortune.  That's what baseball is all about. 

With the romanticized notion of father and son's first game together firmly planted in my head, I set off with the family to the ballpark. Nevermind the fact he is four months old and barely knows what his hands are, let alone a baseball diamond. Shortly after settling into our seats it became readily apparent that our son was in fact four months old.

It was a nice thought and inspired dreams of what still lies ahead. Before I know it my son and I will be enjoying games together, and he will actually know what's going on. Soon, I hope to enjoy a game in person with him as much as he seems to enjoy games on television. It's probably the flashing lights and colors more than his enjoyment of televised baseball.

But nonetheless, today was a glimpse into the future. Today was the start of a time honored tradition. One that spans generations and builds die-hard fans for life. But today was also a four month old's first exposure to 30,000 plus screaming fans.

By the bottom of the sixth inning, after countless attempts at sleep only to be interrupted by cheers and jeers, my son could take no more. But he came, he saw, and he experienced. We saw his first double play, first strikeout, first run, and first home run. We sat with him during his first ceremonial first pitch, his first National Anthem, and his first seventh inning stretch (up on the concourse, but still there).

It was a start, and it was an exciting taste of the bond baseball ignites. Give it a year or two. Give it time for the taste to build into a passion. Before I know it, my son and I will be eating hot dogs and peanuts, watching batting practice, and loving baseball together.

Today was a good day.

Yesterday, James Shields tossed his 10th complete game of the season.  Prior to this season, it had been two years since Shields even had one complete game.  If we are strictly judging Shields by his win-loss totals, the complete games may not seem that impressive.  He is currently 12-10.  But, as voters proved last year during Cy Young award time, there is more to pitchers than wins and losses. Shields carries a 2.96 ERA with 192 strikeouts.  He ranks 4th in the Major League Baseball in strikeouts, 18th in wins, and 16th in ERA.  And, most interesting of all, he is the first player since 1999 to have at least 10 complete games in a season. 

The issue of complete games is an interesting one.  Modern pitchers throw less pitches per game, pitch in less games, and generally aren't given the opportunity to complete games as often as their predecessors.  With this in mind, I decided to analyze complete games through history.  Courtesy of Baseball-Almanac's year-by-year listing of league leaders in complete games, I compiled the graph below:





In 1879 Will White threw an astonishing 75 complete games.  Modern pitchers do not even pitch in 75 games per year.  For comparison, White threw 680 innings in 1879.  James is on pace for 245.  As you can see in the graph above, players like White slowly faded into history, and complete game totals steadily declined. But to get a better idea of the decline, I broke down the average complete games (to lead the league) by decade, as shown by the graph below:



Except for two decades in which the average increased slightly, the average number of complete games to lead the league is on a constant decline.  The biggest question is whether it will level out.  We are currently averaging a 4.72 game reduction per decade in number of complete games it takes to lead the league.  Already from 2006-2010 we are seeing the number of complete games continue to drop.  The average league lead in complete games from 2006-2010 is 8. 

As owners, General Managers, and Managers continue to worry about the health and investment of their pitchers, it is likely that the number of complete games we see per year will continue to decline.  Players continue to get paid more and more, and owners want to protect those investments.  Allowing pitchers to throw complete games and more than a 100+ pitches consistently is no longer an option for many teams.  In Will White's day, players were making thousands of dollars per year, now they are making millions.  Jame Shields is making almost $3 million dollars this year.

So as we see complete games continue to decrease, we should relish the ones we do see.  Shields is having a wonderful season from that standpoint, and has a chance to complete more games.  Enjoy it while it lasts, because before we know it, one or two complete games might lead the league.

For a link to Google Documents with my data click here.

How bad do the Angels want to win the division and face the Yankees or Red Sox in the Division Series?  They plan to pitch not one, but two pitchers on three days rest.  In the regular season.  This weekend.  Reportedly, Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana will both start on three days rest for the first time in their careers.  Watch out Rangers, the Angels are in it to win it.

In a study conducted by John Charles Bradbury and Sean Forman, both PhD's, the correlation between pitches thrown and days off for pitchers was examined.  The results were slightly skewed by the relatively small sample size of pitchers who threw on three days rest between 1998 and 2009, but based on that sample size, days off seemed to have little affect on the pitcher's performances.  So why do we see three days rest so rarely?  Why do managers insist on a five-man rotation?  The best answer seems to be the fear of the unknown.  To date, there is no concrete scientific evidence to support a correlation between lesser performance on short rest than full rest.  There is also no evidence to support an increased risk of injury.  Pitch counts seem to be slightly more correlated to both, but only apply to a given game.  Still, the possibility of injury or reduced performance handcuffs many managers.

Mike Scioscia intends to buck that trend.  At least for a weekend.  That goes to show how important this weekend is.  A three game series between the Angels and the Rangers starts tonight, and the Angels intend to throw three aces at Texas.  Dan Haren is scheduled to start tonight, Ervin Santana tomorrow, and Jered Weaver Sunday.  That's a pretty formidable run of pitchers, especially considering the slim 2-game lead the Rangers currently hold.  Just how formidable are those three pitchers?

The three pitchers have combined for a 2.72 ERA, 473 strikeouts to only 120 walks, and a combined 14.3 WAR. 

In the hitter-friendly, designated hitter filled American League, the Angels have one of the best three man rotations in recent memory.  If the Rangers aren't careful, they could wake up Monday looking up at the Angels who have suddenly stolen first place right out from under them. 

With a season of run-away division and Wild Card races, this weekend's contest between the Angels and the Rangers shapes up to be the most meaningful series of the year.  So if you can take your mind off Hurricane Irene for a moment, settle in for play-off baseball in August.

A Cy Young award winner died on Wednesday. More importantly, a father, husband, son, friend, and teammate took his own life in a moment of sadness and weakness. The 1979 Cy Young award that likely brought Mike Flanagan so much pride and joy, only did so on a limited basis.

According to police, Flanagan was upset about financial issues and took his life with a self-inflicted shotgun wound. His friends knew something was wrong. "Flanny," as they called him had his ups and his downs. But there is little chance any of them knew things were so dire. Tim Kurjikan of ESPN wrote a nice piece about Flanagan and mentioned the ups and downs he had been feeling. But things seemed to be on an up swing. Flanagan was broadcasting Orioles games, the team he loved and led to a World Series while playing. But clearly things were down more than they were up for Flanagan.

That's the problem with suicides. The answers will almost surely never come. At least not fully. What will be forever known is who Mike Flanagan was as a person. He brought joy to so many people's lives, but in the end couldn't maintain that joy in his own life.

So in his death, we can celebrate the man, we can celebrate his career, we can talk about the '79 Cy Young or the '83 World Series, we can tout the 167 wins, and we can delight in his final career pitch, a strikeout. But the most important thing we can do is honor his memory. We can honor him by paying attention to our friends and family, by supporting them, and by looking for the warning signs. The subtleties of depression can go unnoticed and lead to unforeseen suicides like Mike Flanagan's, but let's remember him and pay extra close attention to those we love. Help ease the pain of friends and family so another family doesn't have to go through what Flanagan's family is going through now.

Mike Flanagan 1951-2011

It's easy to breakdown the top players in the league, but what about the little guys (or larger than life guys who are currently struggling)? What about the forgotten few bringing up the rear in offensive categories? Those are the players we'll take a look out in this article. It's time to give a little love to the bottom rung.

The Sliver Slugger Award (Player with the smallest sliver of a batting average)
Adam Dunn - .165
After posting a .260/.356/.536 triple-slash last season, Adam Dunn forgot how to hit. He has exactly 60 hits in 363 at-bats. He will finish the season (hopefully) with more than 60 hits, but the only other time he has had this few knocks came in his rookie season. In 244 at-bats, Dunn had 64 hits. He still posted a .262/.371/.578. This season, though, he's striking out more than ever. His 35.5% K Rate is the highest of his career.

Dunn is having one of the all-time bad seasons. A player known for his power and slugging percentage is barely hovering over a .290 slugging percentage. So we take our hats off to Adam Dunn and award him the Sliver Slugger Award.

The Triple Sombrero (Player with the most strikeouts)
Drew Stubbs - 170
If the silver sombrero is bad, and the golden sombrero is worse, and the platinum sombrero is downright embarrassing, the combination of all three must be reserved for season worsts. With only 41 more strikeouts to go, Stubbs is almost a lock to break Mark Reynolds all-time strikeout record. Through 129 games, Stubbs is averaging 3.9 at-bats per game. With 33 games to play, Stubbs will likely get about 128 more at-bats. With a K% of about 33%, Stubbs has a chance to strikeout 42 more times and set the all-time record.

At least Stubbs, unlike Adam Dunn, can boast a positive WAR. He currently sits on a 2.8 WAR. And while Stubbs strikes out a lot, he also gets hits. He has 126 hits. This is keeping him well above the Sliver Slugger Award. But, he has a tight grasp on the Triple Sombrero.

The Non-Base Percentage Award (Player with the lowest on-base percentage, minimum 300 at-bats)
Vernon Wells - .242
Wells has largely been a bust since coming to the Angels from the Blue Jays. But it may not be a complete reduction in talent. Wells' BABIP is a terribly low .211. That means either Wells is incredibly unlucky when he makes contact or fielders are incredible lucky. With a ground ball percentage fourth lowest in his career, it doesn't look like he is hitting the ball right at infielders. It would appear his fly ball hits are just dropping into fielders gloves more often than usual.

Vernon Wells isn't let completely off the hook though. In analyzing his walks, Wells is on pace to take less walks than he ever has in his career. With only 17 walks this season, it would seem Wells is hacking at every pitch he sees. Clearly this contributes to the types of pitches he hits and the chance for making outs. So, Vernon Wells, with his lack of walks, lack of hits, and sheer inability to get on base wins the Non-Base Percentage Award.

The Ducksnorts Award (Player with the least amount of home runs, minimum 300 at-bats)
Jamey Carroll - 0 Home Runs, 378 at-bats
In basically a full season's worth of games, Carroll has been unable to run into one. Carroll is one of only a few players in the league with over 300 at-bats without a home run. If pitchers can hit them, Carroll should have at least one.

Jamey Carroll does contribute elsewhere, though. He has a .291 batting average and a .360 on-base percentage. He's scored 42 runs and boasts a 1.5 WAR. Not great but at least he's contributing. Though Carroll isn't one to hit the big fly, he collects hits any way he can. As his reward, he wins the Ducksnorts Award.

There you have it. We've covered just a few of the offensive categories out there, but we have a good representation of the best of the worst. Great players are easy to evaluate. It's the mediocre to bad players that are fun to analyze. So enjoy the first annual Best of the Worst.

As the pages fall off the calendar and teams ready themselves for the postseason, conversations about the MVP races will quickly heat up. Already, discussions are being launched and debates are taking shape. One of the key debates that will likely get a lot of coverage is that of a pitcher receiving the MVP award.

There's really no question that Justin Verlander and Roy Halladay are the best pitchers in the game, maybe even the best players. But they won't receive serious MVP consideration. A starting pitcher has not received an MVP award since 1986.

And this is for good reason.

Proponents of pitchers receiving the MVP will point to the overall dominance and stats of pitchers like Verlander and Halladay. Advanced metrics will show Halladay leading all of the National League in WAR and they will show Verlander fourth in the American League. I'm a big fan of advanced metrics, but like any other statistic, they have flaws.

For example, WAR is best viewed in comparison with players of the same position. Fangraphs even points out the need for positional adjustments when reviewing WAR. Pitchers have different responsibilities than fielders. Whether you feel that makes them more valuable or less is up to you, just remember that WAR is difficult to apply across all positions accurately. Pitchers play every fifth day where position players play everyday. There is more of an everyday value added for position players.

This argument is not to say pitchers don't play an integral role in success. The argument is simply that MVP awards are better designed for position players.

I'm going to bring up an old argument, but hopefully I'll shed new light on it. The best pitcher is awarded the Cy Young each year based on voter opinions. What award do batters have that only applies to them? The Silver Slugger (the batting average title). But the problem with this award is in it's value. It awards based on batting average only. A player may finish with the highest on-base percentage and lose out on the Silver Slugger to someone with a higher batting average. The point is, the Silver Slugger does not reward the best position player. It rewards the player who gets the most hits as a ratio of at-bats.

So if pitchers have the Cy Young and, for the sake of this argument, we've determined position players do not have a best all around player award, there are really only two solutions. Give the MVP to a position player as the trend has been, or create a new award just for position players and open the MVP voting up to everyone. Theoretically, the MVP voting is already open to everyone, but the fact that pitchers have the Cy Young award is always in the back of voters minds. By creating a separate award for the best all-around position player, voters would be freed and able to objectively determine an MVP, even if that player is a pitcher.

Unless that happens though, the MVP should go to the best position player and the Cy Young to the best pitcher.

How much do runs actually matter?  You've heard over and over again about the American League Central.  Only one team has a positive run differential (scoring more runs on the season than their opponents).  Scoring runs clearly create wins, but how much does the amount of runs actually matter?  Taking the run differential totals, I re-ranked the teams in each division.  Some results are to be expected, but some are surprising.

First the American League:

A.L. East:
NY Yankees +185
Boston +157
Tampa Bay +51
Toronto +22
Baltimore -135

A.L. Central:
Detroit +4
Chicago White Sox -17
Cleveland -18
Kansas City -65
Minnesota -137

A.L. West:
Texas +101
Los Angeles Angels +24
Oakland -21
Seattle -70

Not many surprises here.  The Twins would actually rank lower than the Royals if run differential determined standings.  Yet, the Twins with their -137 actually sit 2.5 games better in the standings than the Royals. While the White Sox are a 1/2 game back of the Indians for second place in the A.L. Central, their run differentials would put them slightly ahead and in second place.  The A.L. East and West match up exactly with the standings.  

Now for the National League:

N.L. East:
Philadelphia +158
Atlanta +70
NY Mets -21
Washington -27
Florida -79

N.L. Central:
Milwaukee +54
Cincinnati +44
St. Louis +36
Pittsburgh -46
Chicago Cubs -101
Houston -158

N.L. West:
Arizona +9
San Diego +5
Colorado 0
Los Angeles Dodgers -9
San Francisco -15

There's a little bit more of a shake up in the National League.  Washington, while ahead of the Mets by a game and a half in the standings, would actually rank behind the Mets using this method.  Cincinnati, 3 games behind St. Louis for second in the Central, is actually better by 8 runs in differential.  Then there's the West.  See anything strange?  First, the defending World Series Champions rank dead last.  Second, the San Diego Padres, currently planted firmly in the cellar, rank second.  Interestingly, the West is also the only division on baseball to have no teams with a run differential of -50 or less.  The lowest total is -15. 

What does this all mean?  It means that runs are important, but not the only ingredient for success.  If standings were based on total runs for the season, or how well teams outscore their opponents, this would be a different conversation altogether.  If that were the case, we'd be talking about the Padres challenging the Diamondbacks for the N.L. West crown.  We'd be talking about the Angels barely hanging on. 

But in the end, runs don't matter as much as wins. 

If you stay up late enough, you can catch a glimpse of pure domination.  Stay tuned through a Braves game until the ninth and there is a chance you'll see the future of closers in baseball.  At just 5'10", Craig Kimbrel may not seem imposing, but as he winds up and delivers, that thought quickly fades.  Kimbrel tied the rookie saves record last night and will surely eclipse it later this week.  With 40 saves this season, he has pulled even with the mark set last year by rookie Neftali Feliz. 

Kimbrel has a chance to be part of a small group of players in baseball history.  He has never started a Major League game and has been the Braves closer all of this season.  Should Kimbrel choose to stay in the bullpen, unlike Feliz who is widely thought to be moving to the starting rotation next season, he has every opportunity to shut down offenses like only Trevor Hoffman has done before.  Mariano Rivera started 10 games in his career.  Hoffman started none.  At 23 years old, there's nothing stopping Kimbrel from breaking every closer record out there. 

This season, he has compiled a 1.72 ERA in 62.1 innings pitched.  He has struck out a head-spinning 101 batters for a K/9 ratio of 14.5. He's posted an ERA+ of 220 and made his first All-Star Game this season.

Yet, Kimbrel will only be slamming the door shut in the ninth as long as he wants to, or as long as the Braves want him to.  Feliz in Texas decided he wanted to be a starter, so the Rangers went out and picked up two players in Mike Adams and Koji Uehara who can compete for the closer job next season.  If Kimbrel were making $5 million a year, the choice would be out of Kimbrel's hands.  It would be highly unlikely that the Braves would allow their 23 year old stud pitcher to be limited to one inning of work per night.  For that kind of money, they would likely throw him into the mix and have him starting every fifth game.  But Kimbrel is only making $419,000. 

And the beauty, for the Braves, is Kimbrel was drafted by them and they have control of him for at least four years.  He doesn't become arbitration eligible until 2013 and can't become a free agent until 2016.  I'd expect to see the Braves and Kimbrel work on a long-term deal this off-season.  The Braves are in a position that many teams dream of.  They can lock Kimbrel in to a deal now, without over-paying later. 

No matter what they do, Kimbrel's highlight reel season will go down in history.  With 32 games left to play, it would not be surprising to see Kimbrel reach 50 saves.  And as the Braves enter the play-offs in a probable match-up against the offense-heavy Brewers, any lead in the ninth will need extra protection.  Kimbrel looks ready for the job. 

As the innings slip away and the Braves find themselves with a lead, don't go to sleep, don't leave the ballpark early.  Stay up for the late show.  The late late show with Craig Kimbrel.  

It was announced today that the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Toronto Blue Jays pulled off a three player waiver period trade. The Diamondbacks put a claim in for Aaron Hill and John McDonald. In exchange they sent Kelly Johnson to Toronto.

If you didn't know where the Dbacks stood in the National League West standings, this would seem like a pretty good deal. The Jays are getting a veteran second baseman with some pop to help compete with the juggernaut that is the Yankees and the Red Sox. The Diamondbacks are shedding a player who was due for free agency at the end of the season, grabbing a couple of players to fill holes, and dropping a couple million off payroll. Sounds like a move designed to build toward the future doesn't it?

But the future is now. The Diamondbacks are in first place and need every bit of help they can get to push toward the postseason. Generally I'm not one to question a move made by GM Kevin Towers, but this one is a head-scratcher.

Here are the 2011 numbers:

Kelly Johnson: .209/.287/.412, 18 HR, 13 SB, 44 BB, 0.2 WAR, 2 RAR

Aaron Hill: .225/.270/.313, 6 HR, 16 SB, 23 BB, -0.3 WAR, -3 RAR

John McDonald: .250/.285/.345, 2 HR, 2 SB, 8 BB, 0.9 WAR, 9 RAR

With Stephen Drew out for the season, I can see the Dbacks desire to plug the shortstop hole with a veteran. But they gave up a veteran second baseman with some power for a player in Aaron Hill who doesn't even provide more benefit than a Triple-A replacement. As for McDonald, he is a free agent after this year and I'm not sure the Diamondbacks will be re-signing him.

Maybe Kevin Towers has a master plan behind this surprising move, but right now, it looks like the Diamondbacks forgot they were a team in contention. Right now this trade looks like a wash at best, but it certainly does not look like a move designed to make the team better as they head toward a possible date with the Philadelphia Phillies.

Don't watch Justin Verlander pitch. Just don't do it. If you have anything else to do, chores, dinner, work, or school, don't watch the Tigers' ace throw a single pitch. If you do, you won't stop until he's done. His lightning fastballs and mind-boggling breaking balls remind us all why we are on the couch and not in a batter's box. The very idea of facing a 100 MPH fastball from Justin Verlander is scary enough, but knowing he can back it up with a devastating slider or any number if off-speed pitches is purely terrifying.

Yesterday, Verlander won his 19th game of the season. Depending on play-off positioning and rest for the start of the postseason, Verlander could have six more starts. He may not win them all, but he has won his last seven straight, so who knows. If he wins all six starts, that will put him at 25 wins. What does that mean in a recent historical context?

In the last 10 seasons, only Randy Johnson has reached even 24 wins. The last pitcher to win 25 games was Bob Welch in 1990. If Verlander can defy the odds (which is kind of his thing right?), he may become the first pitcher in over 20 years to win 25 games.

But what are the chances of that happening?

Verlander has started 28 games. He has won 19 and lost 5. That means he has 4 no-decisions. 5 losses out of 28 comes to an 18% chance of a loss. 4 no-decisions out of 28 starts comes to a 14% chance of a no-decision. Combined, Verlander has a 32% chance of not getting a win in any given start. If we carry that through to the estimated 34 starts Verlander will make this year, we come up with a total of 10.88 games that will not be won overall. Since Verlander already has 9 games of combined losses and no-decisions, he may be looking at two more starts where he doesn't get a win. If that does in fact happen, Verlander will finish the year with 23 wins.

Clearly, the probabilities we are working with are based on a relatively small sample size, so it is very possible for Verlander to win more or less games down the stretch. No matter the final total, each time Justin Verlander pitches, it becomes compelling television.

So if you can afford to be sucked in, if you have nothing important to do, setlle in to Verlander's next start. Allow him to mesmerize you with dominant pitching reminiscent of Hall of Famers long since passed. Allow him to paint a picture of pitching excellence as he pushes the Tigers toward a division crown and himself towards history.

But if you don't have the time, don't tune in. All it will take is one pitch and Verlander will have you hooked.

According the Fangraphs stats glossary, "Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like over a given time period, assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average."

FIP adjusts for fielding luck, fielding talent, and all those things a pitcher truly can't control. Generally speaking, FIP is a better indicator of future performance. The theory being that a pitcher whose defense has performed exceptionally well will have a lower ERA, but once that fielding performance inevitably levels off, the pitcher's ERA may rise. The opposite is true as well. If a pitcher has a high ERA but a lower FIP, the ERA should come down as the team's defense begins to play better.

In looking at the top-ten ERA's for this season, I became curious which pitcher has the biggest gap.

1) Johnny Cueto: 1.89 ERA/3.45 FIP
2) Jered Weaver: 2.10 ERA/2.84 FIP
3) Justin Verlander: 2.31 ERA/2.69 FIP
4) Josh Beckett: 2.46 ERA/3.40 FIP
5) Ryan Vogelsong: 2.47 ERA/3.57 FIP
6) Tim Lincecum: 2.53 ERA/2.85 FIP
7) Roy Halladay: 2.56 ERA/2.12 FIP
8) Clayton Kershaw: 2.60 ERA/2.55 FIP
9) Cole Hamels: 2.62 ERA/2.64 FIP
10) Justin Masterson: 2.71 ERA/2.92 FIP

Now, I'll rank the players based on their gap (FIP - ERA).

1) Roy Halladay: -0.44
2) Clayton Kershaw: -0.05
3) Cole Hamels: 0.02
4) Justin Masterson: 0.21
5) Tim Lincecum: 0.32
6) Justin Verlander: 0.38
7) Jered Weaver: 0.74
8) Josh Beckett: 0.94
9) Ryan Vogelsong: 1.10
10) Johnny Cueto: 1.56

Based in this list, it would seem Roy Halladay and Clayton Kershaw are likely pitching better than their ERA's would suggest. It would also seem that Johnny Cueto's ERA may not be something he can maintain beyond this season.

Yesterday was a special day for the San Diego Padres, Trevor Hoffman, and baseball. Yet, baseball failed to notice. Like missing its own surprise party, ignoring subtle hints, or getting distracted by a new toy, baseball completely forgot what a special day yesterday was. Perception is reality, but that's not fair or true. Reality is reality. And Trevor Hoffman deserves better from the game he loved and dominated for so long.

Yesterday, in a ceremony that delayed the start of the game by almost an hour, Trevor Hoffman's number 51 jersey was retired. Enshrined with greats like Dave Winfield, Steve Garvey, Randy Jones, and Tony Gwynn, the number 51 will be forever off-limits to anyone donning the Friars' colors. The ceremony was both touching, sad, happy, and inspiring. It reminded San Diego of Trevor Time. It reminded the city of the event that was watching Hoffman come jogging to the mound from centerfield, the tolling of Hell's Bells blasting through the sound system. But baseball across the country failed to notice.

The retirement ceremony was conspicuously missing from the top stories of many major baseball websites. ESPN did not even mention it in their top stories. Sports Illustrated gave it a four-word headline buried under stories of Pujols' 31st home run, the Tigers win, and A-Rod's return. Only Yahoo Sports gave the ceremony any sort of top story recognition. And it's all because Hoffman is perceived as second best if that.

Mariano Rivera has a decent shot at breaking Hoffman's all-time saves record this season. Rivera has pitched in a career's worth more play-off games than Hoffman. Rivera has always performed on the biggest stage. Yet Hoffman's accomplishments should not be forgotten and diminished because of this. Instead, they should be viewed in a different light.

On a team known more for futility than success, Trevor Hoffman managed to rack up 552 saves in 16 seasons. He averaged 34.5 saves per season. He was top-ten is MVP voting twice and top-ten in Cy Young voting 4 times. He was an All-Star 7 times. But most importantly, Trevor Hoffman redefined what it meant to be a closer. The passion and energy he brought to every appearance was unparalleled. When John Smoltz moved to the closer role after years of starting pitching, he adopted a Hoffman-like entrance utilizing Metalica's Enter Sandman rather than AC/DC's Hell's Bells. Since then, the sight of a closer entering the game from the bullpen has become a rock concert-like event.

But atmosphere, surface level success, and records may not be enough. With Rivera as his true competition (and both will likely make the Hall of Fame at some point), a statistical comparison is in order.

ERA: 2.87 for Hoffman, 2.23 for Rivera.
IP: 1,089.1 for Hoffman, 1,198 for Rivera.
SO: 1,133 for Hoffman, 1,095 for Rivera.
K/9: 9.63 for Hoffman, 8.23 for Rivera.
BABIP: .265 for Hoffman, .262 for Rivera.
WAR: 38.0 for Hoffman, 55 for Rivera.
WAR/GM: 0.04 for Hoffman, 0.05 for Rivera.
FIP: 4.13 for Hoffman, 2.77 for Rivera.

As you can see, Rivera is better in almost every category, but Hoffman is very close. The only categories in which Rivera dominates is WAR and FIP. Yet the question lingers, if most people consider Rivera a lock for the Hall of Fame and Hoffman's numbers aren't too far off, why doesn't Hoffman get a little more respect from the baseball community when he receives the highest honor a team can bestow upon a player?

Trevor Hoffman failed to perform when the lights were brightest, a blown save in the World Series, a blown save in the All-Star Game, a blown save to clinch the division, and a blown save in a one-game play-off, but he was also not given many opportunities to redeem himself. Playing for the Padres cost Hoffman the opportunity to consistently perform in the postseason.

But even still, he did what no one before him had ever done. Doesn't that at very least deserve a little recognition, perhaps even celebration, outside of San Diego when his number is retired?

Hopefully the honeymoon isn't over. Throughout the entire season, both the players and the owners have refrained from propaganda and vitriol in regards to the current Collective Bargaining Agreement set to expire this offseason. By all accounts, both sides seemed relatively in tune with what needs to be done and focused on getting a deal done quickly after the season ends. Unlike Football and Basketball, sports with new agreements revolving so much around money, Baseball doesn't have revenue issues to hammer out. Worst case scenario, they hit a dead-lock on an extra Wild Card team or re-alignment. If that were the case, both sides could easily shelf the discussion and still get a deal done.

Then, two bombs dropped like secret assassins in the night. The first was Baseball's first positive HGH test for a Minor League player, resulting in a 50-game ban. The second, and probably more troubling of the two, was Bud Selig's reaction to how much teams like the Pirates were paying their draft picks.

Former Major Leaguer Mike Jacobs, who was currently struggling through a Minor League stint with Colorado's Triple-A affiliate, became the first professional baseball player to test positive for HGH. Testing was implemented in Minor League Baseball in July 2010. Major League Baseball has yet to implement the testing, but will surely be faced with questions during CBA negotiations. The players and Union are worried about the perceived invasion of privacy that blood testing for HGH represents. This news was followed by Bud Selig's reaction to draft pick signings.

The Pirates paid a reported $17 million in guaranteed money to their 2011 draft picks, a strategy designed to provide long-term, home-grown talent. According to Sports Illustrated, Major League teams spent a combined $236 million. Bud Selig was not happy about this, and word from the ownership meetings was that he is looking to impose a hard cap on draft signings.

Let's address the first issue. HGH testing is being done in the NFL, and given Baseball's track record for PED use, will not be leaving Minor League Baseball anytime soon. Player concerns over blood testing are understandable. The privacy concerns are legitimate. Should the tests reveal any other diseases or ailments, the players have little trust that this information will remain private. Just look at the Mitchell Report for proof that anonymous doesn't really mean anonymous in Baseball. The importance of maintaining what's left of the game's integrity will likely outweigh player concerns. Testing in the Minors will remain, but it still may be awhile before we see such testing with Major League players. It will come though.

Unlike the player concerns addressed above, the contracts paid to draft picks is an ownership concern. At least that's what we are meant to believe considering Bud Selig essentially represents the owners. The problem with Selig's desire for a hard cap on draft signings in Baseball, and why the new NFL rookie pay-scale system couldn't work in Baseball, is because the closest thing Major League Baseball has to a salary cap is the luxury tax. To impose any sort of cap on baseball would be a large change to a system, that while often criticized, has faired pretty well over the years. The slippery slope concern of a draft pick hard cap leading to an overall salary cap is very real.

While it would be easy to say players and owners should just compromise, that's not as easy a solution as it sounds. You have one player issue and one owner issue right? So the players make a concession and the owners make a concession. All solved. Wrong. The players feel strongly about their opposition to blood testing, and Bud Selig feels strongly about the need for a draft pick hard cap.

Things have been tame on the CBA front up to this point, but come the offseason, I'm concerned the honeymoon might be over.