The 5.5 Hole

It's interesting how one arrives at a story idea.  I read a an article about the Padres and their plans for 2012.  The article had very little to do with the size of Petco Park.  It had very little to do with the general feel from most fans and players that the walls need to be brought in.  Yet, that's exactly what I pulled from the article.  I was charged up and ready to defend the so-called "pitcher's parks" in baseball.  But as I began my research (which started with park factor stats), I discovered something far more interesting.  The league leader in park factor for both runs and home runs has been on a steady increase since 2008 after and steady decrease from 2001-2008.  (Note: there was a slight drop in the leader for park factor related to home runs in 2011)

Park factor simply compares the rate of a specified stat at home for teams vs. the rate on the road.  A park factor of 1 is average.  Anything less than 1 is below average and anything over 1 is above average.  For example, 1.25 would be 25% higher than the average.  For the math nerds, ESPN has a calculation for you: ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)).

Below is a chart of the park factor leaders in runs from 2001-2011:



And the park factor leaders for home runs from 2001-2011:



As you can see, the two charts have a similar slope.  Downward from 2001-2008, and upward after:







Why was there such a shift in park factor leaders starting in 2009?

There have been four new ballparks opened since the start of the 2008 season; The New Yankee Stadium (2009), Citi Field (2009), Nationals Park (2008), and Target Field (2010).  Now we can easily say that Yankee Stadium is conducive to offense.  The first year of existence saw a record number of home runs hit.  It has been in the top four for park factor home runs since it opened.  In 2011, Yankee Stadium ranked 6th in park factor for runs.  In 2010, it ranked second.  Nationals park has hovered around average for both runs and home runs since it opened.  Both Citi Field and Target Field are thought to lean more towards the pitcher-friendly side of the fence.

Even if the new ballparks caused an overall shift, the shift would only apply to the average.  These numbers in the charts above reflect the league leader each year.  In 2008, the last year of the decline in park factor for runs, the Rangers led the league.  In 2009 and 2010, the Rockies led the league in park factor for runs as we started to see the park factor climb.  In 2011, the Rangers again led.  For home runs, the park factor leader stayed the same in 2008 and 2009.  The Yankees led both of those years.  Then, as the park factor leader's numbers began to climb, the White Sox led the league in 2010, followed by the Rangers in 2011.

This tells me more about the make-up of these teams rather than the parks themselves.  There have not been enough drastic changes to the ballparks to cause the upward slope we see in the park factor leader boards.  To me, it seems the clubs with offense-friendly ballparks have begun doing a better job of putting together teams that can exploit those parks.  Once a front office has determined what type of players fit a ballpark best, the team should and usually does play that park to a distinct home field advantage. 

From 2001-2008 teams had less separation and the leaders in park factor runs and home runs were getting closer and closer to average.  However, as teams adjusted and attempted to build clubs that reflect the ballpark better, the successful ones opened the gap. 

Someone impersonating AJ Burnett was pitching for the Yankees last night. Well, to be fair AJ Burnett was clearly pitching in the first inning when wildness allowed the bases to be loaded. Curtis Granderson saved him from a bases-clearing double. But after that, Burnett seemed like a different pitcher.

Through 5 2/3 innings, Burnett allowed just a solo home run and 4 hits. Coming into this game, Burnett's postseason road ERA was 10.50. Last night it was 1.59. While it was only one start, it was the biggest start of AJ Burnett's Yankee career. Pitching in an elimination game on the road, Burnett had the confidence of very few outside the Yankee clubhouse. But he put those fears to bed with a strong performance.

Burnett may or may not be able to replicate this performance if the Yankees advance to the ALCS, but he is the reason they even have chance to advance. His performance, and the Yankees offense, forced game 5 in the Bronx.

Ivan Nova will likely go on three days rest for the Yankees. Nova in game 5 yields much more confidence than Burnett in game 4, but without Burnett, Nova never would have had a shot to close it out.

My advice to the Boston faithful: close your eyes and hope for the best. With their faces buried in their hands with silent prayers floating through their minds, the Red Sox Nation is in full panic mode. And they should be.

While the Rays are furiously banging on the Red Sox door, the Angels are politely knocking. At just 4 games back, the Angels have inserted themselves as a second layer of Wild Card competition for the Sox. The difference, of course, is the scheduling. The Rays still have three vitally important games against the team they're chasing. The Angels, probably more focused on the Rangers, have none against the Red Sox.

Over in the National League, The Beer-Makers are in a similar spot. After building what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the Central, the Brewers are suddenly faced with an entirely surmountable lead. Up 5.5 games on the Cardinals, Milwaukee probably has little to worry about, but a streak of two or three losses could make this interesting.

Beyond that, the Braves, who once seemed destined for the Wild Card, now carry just a 4 game lead over the Cardinals and a 6 game lead over the Giants. Yes, those Giants. With no head-to-head match-ups between these teams, the standings may not change much by the end of the year, but each game becomes more and more important down the stretch.

Just a month and a half ago we all had the play-off match-ups pegged. Yankees or Red Sox host the Tigers and Yankees or Red Sox on the road to Texas. Now things aren't so clear. In case you haven't noticed, the Tigers have the second best record in the A.L. all the sudden. They have moved from a sure-fire road series in the first round to potentially hosting the Red Sox or Rays. Even more surprising is the dwindling gap between the Tigers' record and the Yankees' record. They are now only 3 back in the win column for the American League's best record. Unfortunately, they are 5 back in the loss column and you can't control losses that have already happened.

What about the National League? Well, no one is catching the Phillies. But if I told you on August 1st that in mid-September the Diamondbacks would be tied for the second best record in the N.L., would you have believed me? The Phillies were all set to host Arizona in the first round, but now may be faced with hosting a Brewers club that can be as streaky as the best (or worst) of them.

A month ago, I wrote about what a second Wild Card in each league would look like this season. While in support of the idea, I wrote at the time that it would water-down the play-offs this season. That's no longer the case. How amazingly fun would a three game play-off series be between the Red Sox and Rays? How about the Braves and the Cardinals? These would be compelling match-ups worthy of postseason baseball.

In a 162 game season it's amazing to see such swings in the standings. You'd think things would normalize and start to be clear by September. Instead, thing get even more uncertain. And I love it.

It is now September 12th. The mourning, tributes, and moments of silence will have to wait another year for most. Though for the victims, the families of the victims, and those in and around the Twin Towers on September 11, 2001, the remembrance is year round. A small token here and there can change a person's outlook. It can take feelings of sadness to pride and feelings of hatred to feelings of unity.

But Major League Baseball chose money over tribute. The cash registers were ringing in the heads of MLB executives when they once again (they tried this when the Mets returned to play in 2001) told players, the Mets players especially, they could not wear first responder hats. That while they could wear them during pre-game, they were obligated to wear the New Era hats that the entire league was wearing. That even though this was a team, much like the Yankees who were on the road, representative of New York's loss and recovery, they could not put down the New Era brand for one day ten years after the last time it was done.

Today the world can go back to capitalism personified. Baseball, New Era, and all other profiteering organizations can seize any opportunity they want to make a dollar today. But yesterday was not about money or contracts. Yesterday was not about exposure or marketing. It was about tribute.

Major League Baseball failed in that respect. Bud Selig failed in that respect. Joe Torre failed in that respect. And they should all be ashamed.

After 10 years, I can admit to myself a truth I've tried hard to forget. I can admit I was a teenager more concerned with a girl than a terrorist attack on our country. I can admit, as a high school senior, I made a joke about the attack on my way to home room. I can admit my insensitivity and ignorance. But that all stopped the moment I saw the television. It changed and I matured the moment I saw the billowing smoke, like so many of the victims, reaching out into the New York sky.

There have been many stories about baseball and 9/11. This is mine.

Much like the rest of our country, I was changed that day. I was moved and hurt and saddened and angered. I was depressed and resilient and proud and fearful. I was an American bound not only by faith in recovery and a thirst for justice, but in my need to heal.

My immaturity quickly faded that day. The empty skies, moments of silence, and ever-increasing death toll did that to people. To ease the sickness I felt in thinking of the senseless and immense loss of life, I turned toward something only a sports fan would understand; baseball.

The game was gone for six days. But when it returned, it was like battlefield patch-work for a wounded soldier. It wasn't a permanent fix, but it helped get us through. The New York Mets and New York Yankees stood paramount for obvious reasons. The Mets failed to make the postseason, so New York City's hopes and continued healing rested solely with the Yankees.

The Yankees made it all the way to the World Series, their run seemingly guided by destiny. But they were facing an Arizona Diamondbacks team in just its third year of existence. That team didn't know any better. That team didn't realize the
Hollywood scribes were writing a different story, one that saw the Yankees win the title and help heal the hearts of New Yorkers.

I was living in Arizona at this time and remember that series like it was yesterday. I remember the Diamondbacks pitching dominance. I remember the Yankees comeback. I remember Randy Johnson coming in from the bullpen the day after he started. I remember a tie game in the ninth. Most of all I remember the distraction of a game we played as children, and I remember welcoming it with open arms.

When Luis Gonzalez blooped a single over the drawn in infield, the state of Arizona rejoiced. Yankees fans were left stunned. A walk off hit in the bottom of the ninth in game seven of the World Series is baseball lore. It's what Little Leaguers dream of when they are on the practice fields. It's what fans hope for ever year.

While the magical run was over for the Yankees and the Diamondbacks celebrated into the night, the next day would mark a return to what we were all hiding from. It would mark the return to mourning, questioning, and doubt. But for a month and a half baseball gave us a distraction. For the first time in history we had November baseball, and nothing could have been more beneficial to a grieving nation.

"Freedom itself was attacked this morning by a faceless coward and freedom will be defended." -- President George W. Bush

With play-off spots all but locked up, let's take a look at which teams are hottest heading into the last leg of the season. First, we'll look at the contenders' records since the All-Star break.

Division leaders:

Milwaukee: 35-14 .714
Philadelphia: 31-14 .689
New York: 33-18 .647
Arizona: 31-17 .646
Detroit: 31-19 .620
Texas: 29-21 .580

Wild Card leaders:
Atlanta: 28-19 .596
Boston: 29-20 .592

Everyone knows about the Brewers' recent success. Right on their heels are the Phillies who are on pace for 105 wins. The surprising team (if you ignore their massive 7 game lead over the Giants) is the Arizona Diamondbacks. At only 3 games back of Milwaukee's second best record, the Dbacks are in a fight to avoid a 5-game series with the Phillies in the first round of the postseason.

Considering the ups and downs of the Rangers and their lead over the Angels, it shouldn't be surprising they have the worst winning percentage of all play-off contenders since the break.

Records since the All-Star break are often indicative of postseason success, but the Giants showed us all last season that the last month and a half can prove more important. Below are records since August 15th.

Division leaders:

Milwaukee: 15-6 .714
Detroit: 15-6 .714
New York: 14-7 .667
Arizona: 13-7 .650
Philadelphia: 10-7 .588
Texas: 11-10 .524

Wild Card leaders:
Atlanta: 12-6 .667
Boston: 11-6 .647

Interestingly, Milwaukee has the exact same winning percentage. They are tied with the surprising Tigers. The Rangers are the coldest team right now, followed by the Red Sox and Phillies.

Perhaps most surprising is the Yankees winning percentage verse the Red Sox winning percentage since August 15th. Granted both have had to deal with postponements due to Hurricane Irene, but the Sox and Yankees have very similar winning percentages, only .020 apart. Yet, the Yankees have overtaken Boston and now hold a two and a half lead.

The moral of this story is look out for Detroit and Milwaukee, but don't sleep on Arizona and New York. Winners still have to perform on the field, but entering the postseason on a hot streak sure will help.

This is the first year I can remember where, as of September 1st, there was literally not a Wild Card chase to found.  That is, unless you consider 7.5 games back or 8.5 games back within striking distance.  Mathematically, there is still a possibility of Atlanta or New York being overtaken for the Wild Card.  Realistically though, not a chance.

As of September 1, 2010, the A.L. Wild Card was all but wrapped up.  In the National League though, the Giants were 1.5 games back of the Phillies, and the Cardinals were 5 games back.  Using the Septemmber 1st date as our constant, let's look at the Wild Card standing back through the 2002 season:

2009: Texas was 4 games back in the American League while San Francisco was 1 back in the senior circuit.  Colorado was 3 back and Florida was 5 back.

2008: The White Sox and Twins were tied at 3 games back of Boston.  In the National League, the race wasn't as tight, but Philadelphia was still 5.5 games back of Milwaukee.

2007:  Seattle was 2 games back in the A.L. and Detroit was 3 games back.  San Diego and Arizona were tied for the Wild Card lead, and Philadelphia was 3 games back.

2006: The Twins were 0.5 games back in the American League, and Boston was 5.5 back.  In the National League there were 7 teams within 5 games of the Wild Card, including Philadelphia and Cincinnati only 0.5 games back.

2005: The Angels, the Yankees, and Oakland were all tied for the Wild Card lead while the Indians were 1 game back and the Twins were 5. In the N.L., Houston was 0.5 games back, Florida was 1.5 games back, the Mets were 2.5 games back, and the Nationals were 3 games back.

2004: The Angels were 3.5 games back of Boston and Texas was 5 games back.  San Francisco, San Diego, Florida, and Houston were at least within 3 games of the Wild Card lead.

2003: Boston was 1.5 games back of Seattle.  The National League again had 7 teams in competition.  All 7 were within 4 games of the lead, with 4 teams within 2.5 games.

2002: Seattle was 2 games back and Boston was 5 games back.  San Francisco was the lone competitor in the N.L. at 2 games back.

In the 9 seasons preceding this one, we have had compelling Wild Card races.  We have had parity.  But suddenly, in 2011, teams are either good, or they are bad.  And a lot of it has to do with pitching.  As Jason Stark wrote yesterday, pitchers are gaining ground on hitters through technology and constant study.  In addition, the reduction in steroid users has brought the game closer to a level playing field. 

Teams who have pitching are successful.  The Phillies clearly have the best rotation in baseball.  The Braves have probably the best bullpen in baseball (not to mention an aging Derek Lowe who slugged a home run yesterday).  The Brewers have a threesome of pitchers who have gelled better than any other team besides the Phillies.  The Diamondbacks have developed Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson into legitimate stars and Kennedy is even Cy Young quality.  In the American League, the Red Sox had Clay Buckholtz most of the season to go along with a rejuvenated Josh Becket and a consistent Jon Lester.  The Yankees have CC Sabathia.  The Tigers have the best pitcher in baseball.  And the Rangers have had one of the best staffs all season (they may be breaking down now, but they posted solid number up through about the middle of August).

I am a big proponent of adding another Wild Card in each league, but this season does not help my case much.  There is not a single team out there that cries out, "Hey, we deserve to be in the postseason!"  The Indians have tailed off terribly, the White Sox are inconsistent, the Giants don't have an offense, and the Cardinals don't have pitching.  If a second Wild Card team were in play in each league this season, much like artificial sweetener, it would just be fake. We'd be looking at Tampa Bay and St. Louis as the additional play-off teams.  While those teams could make some noise in the postseason, a glance at there season does not reveal a compelling reason to let them in.

In a league where only 27% of the teams make the postseason, it is easy to wish for more.  But not this year.  There's no one else deserving enough.  The Wild Card races as they are aren't even all that wild. 

Yesterday was a special day for the San Diego Padres, Trevor Hoffman, and baseball. Yet, baseball failed to notice. Like missing its own surprise party, ignoring subtle hints, or getting distracted by a new toy, baseball completely forgot what a special day yesterday was. Perception is reality, but that's not fair or true. Reality is reality. And Trevor Hoffman deserves better from the game he loved and dominated for so long.

Yesterday, in a ceremony that delayed the start of the game by almost an hour, Trevor Hoffman's number 51 jersey was retired. Enshrined with greats like Dave Winfield, Steve Garvey, Randy Jones, and Tony Gwynn, the number 51 will be forever off-limits to anyone donning the Friars' colors. The ceremony was both touching, sad, happy, and inspiring. It reminded San Diego of Trevor Time. It reminded the city of the event that was watching Hoffman come jogging to the mound from centerfield, the tolling of Hell's Bells blasting through the sound system. But baseball across the country failed to notice.

The retirement ceremony was conspicuously missing from the top stories of many major baseball websites. ESPN did not even mention it in their top stories. Sports Illustrated gave it a four-word headline buried under stories of Pujols' 31st home run, the Tigers win, and A-Rod's return. Only Yahoo Sports gave the ceremony any sort of top story recognition. And it's all because Hoffman is perceived as second best if that.

Mariano Rivera has a decent shot at breaking Hoffman's all-time saves record this season. Rivera has pitched in a career's worth more play-off games than Hoffman. Rivera has always performed on the biggest stage. Yet Hoffman's accomplishments should not be forgotten and diminished because of this. Instead, they should be viewed in a different light.

On a team known more for futility than success, Trevor Hoffman managed to rack up 552 saves in 16 seasons. He averaged 34.5 saves per season. He was top-ten is MVP voting twice and top-ten in Cy Young voting 4 times. He was an All-Star 7 times. But most importantly, Trevor Hoffman redefined what it meant to be a closer. The passion and energy he brought to every appearance was unparalleled. When John Smoltz moved to the closer role after years of starting pitching, he adopted a Hoffman-like entrance utilizing Metalica's Enter Sandman rather than AC/DC's Hell's Bells. Since then, the sight of a closer entering the game from the bullpen has become a rock concert-like event.

But atmosphere, surface level success, and records may not be enough. With Rivera as his true competition (and both will likely make the Hall of Fame at some point), a statistical comparison is in order.

ERA: 2.87 for Hoffman, 2.23 for Rivera.
IP: 1,089.1 for Hoffman, 1,198 for Rivera.
SO: 1,133 for Hoffman, 1,095 for Rivera.
K/9: 9.63 for Hoffman, 8.23 for Rivera.
BABIP: .265 for Hoffman, .262 for Rivera.
WAR: 38.0 for Hoffman, 55 for Rivera.
WAR/GM: 0.04 for Hoffman, 0.05 for Rivera.
FIP: 4.13 for Hoffman, 2.77 for Rivera.

As you can see, Rivera is better in almost every category, but Hoffman is very close. The only categories in which Rivera dominates is WAR and FIP. Yet the question lingers, if most people consider Rivera a lock for the Hall of Fame and Hoffman's numbers aren't too far off, why doesn't Hoffman get a little more respect from the baseball community when he receives the highest honor a team can bestow upon a player?

Trevor Hoffman failed to perform when the lights were brightest, a blown save in the World Series, a blown save in the All-Star Game, a blown save to clinch the division, and a blown save in a one-game play-off, but he was also not given many opportunities to redeem himself. Playing for the Padres cost Hoffman the opportunity to consistently perform in the postseason.

But even still, he did what no one before him had ever done. Doesn't that at very least deserve a little recognition, perhaps even celebration, outside of San Diego when his number is retired?

Inspired by my post about Bruce Bochy and what he could have done for San Diego with a little more in payroll and by recent comments by the Padres front office indicating they intend to increase payroll, I set out to see how much salary really matters in terms of wins. 

The New York Yankees have spent more than every other team in baseball for what seems like forever.  And they've won.  Some may end the argument there.  The Yankees spend more and have the most World Series titles.  However, questions remain.

Billy Beane is famous for his approach to payroll and evaluating players with the Oakland Athletics.  While the A's have not seen much success of late, Beane revolutionized the game.  His approach and utilization of Sabermerics to help evaluate players turned the A's into a contender.  And he did so with a lower than average payroll. 

The Rays made it to the World Series in 2008 with a payroll under $40 million.  The Marlins won the World Series in 2003 with a payroll under $50 million.  So it's clear that success can be had without over-spending.  But how much do wins and salary correlate?

Using Baseball-Reference's salary figures for every Major League team from 1998 on (the year the league expanded to 30 teams), I have analyzed the correlation between success in terms of salary.  The salary figures do not include every bonus a player made and often miss mid-season call-ups, but overall they are as complete as it gets. 

I've broken the results down by periods of four years  for 1998-2005 and five years for the 2006-2010 seasons just so that we could include the 2010 season in the results.  I've also compiled the overall results. 

First, we'll take a look at the seasons ranging from 1998-2001. 



With the data in place, I ran a correlation analysis.  The result is the "r" figure you see in the top right of the graph.  The closer to 1 that number is, the better the correlation between two pieces of data.  In this case, the data is salary vs. wins. 

As you can tell, r is only 0.45.  While there is some correlation, it is not a very good one. 

Next we'll move on to 2002-2005.



Again, we see minimal correlation between salary and wins.  The correlation coefficient for 2002-2005 is only 0.48.

Now, we'll take a look at 2006-2010.



The correlation actually decreases for the most recent seasons.  Interestingly enough, this is also the first data set to include a salary over $200 million.  At 0.42, there is not much correlation seen between salary and wins.

Finally, I put it all together.  Here are the results for 1998-2010 combined.





As you can see, the correlation coefficient for all the years combined is just 0.40.  Keep in mind, when analyzing correlation coefficients, anything less than 0.50 is considered to be a bad correlation. 

Sure, there is some correlation.  There has to be.  Otherwise, every team in the league would be paying players the league minimum.  However, I'd be willing to bet that removing the Yankees from the evaluation altogether, would cause the correlation coefficient to decrease even more.  Let's find out.





And there you have it.  If we don't count the Yankees, the correlation between salary and wins becomes an almost non-existent 0.35.

With the understanding that teams can win without spending hundreds of millions of dollars, it's surprising more GM's don't employ Billy Beane's philosophy.  Create a balanced team, built for the ballpark they play in, and focus on development rather than buying talent. 

This is not to say I'm not all for teams spending a little more money if they have it, but the money needs to be spent wisely.  The Mariners spent over $100 million in 2008 and still lost 101 games.  They spent over $80 million in 2010 and again lost 101 games.

Money doesn't buy happiness, and it would seem money doesn't buy wins either. 


To take a look at all of the salary figures I used in my analysis, click here.