The 5.5 Hole

There aren't many things that last 104 years in this world. Most people don't. Cars don't. Some building don't. There are very few walking this earth still who were alive when the Cubs last won a World Series. Much will be written about the Cubs, their failures, their near misses, and their future. I'm here to tell you the 103 year drought will become 104 years after next season.

Don't get me wrong, the Chicago Northsiders are on the right track. Nothing is guaranteed, but hiring the front office Chicago did is about as close as you can get to a sure thing. Unfortunately for the Wrigley faithful, the Cubs organization was in such shambles when Epstein was hired, it will take time to rebuild. Even with Epstein and Hoyer's intellect. Even with Jason McLeod's eye for talent. Even with a new manager and a couple offseason transactions, it will take the Cubs a couple of years to dig out of the impossibly deep and embarrassing hole they've put themselves in.

And in the process we get to see Theo Epstein do something we've never seen before. Operate on a smaller budget. Given the contracts of Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Zambrano, and Aramis Ramirez, Epstein will surely be playing with far less money than he's used to. Based on the state of the Cubs farm system, this could be the greatest thing for them. Epstein, Hoyer, and McLeod need to focus first on rebuilding the farm, then they can rebuild the big club.

And therein lies the reason why the Cubs will not be sniffing anywhere near a World Series next season. They will be hard-pressed to finish over .500.

In the long run though, Cubs fans should appreciate the building process that is about to occur. Re-shaping a losing franchise doesn't take place overnight, and winning a World Series isn't as easy as it sounds. The Cubs will need sustained success to increase their odds of breaking the 103, soon to be 104, year drought.

Has there ever been a time when one man's decision had such a large effect on those around him?  Aside from politics, and keeping our conversation focused on baseball, I don't think so.  When Theo Epstein's hiring as the Chicago Cubs President is announced on Tuesday, it will create a ripple effect through baseball unlike any ever seen before. 

Long before Epstein made it known that he was planning on leaving Boston, the rumors were there.  As his club collapsed in September, the rumors turned into suggestions from some, demands from others.  Those who felt bad for Epstein going through the losing streak thought it best if he cut ties.  Those rooting for the Sox, the ones most rabid after the collapse, demanded Epstein leave town.  He had used up all his talents and charm.  Yet, no matter what anyone suggested or demanded, the Red Sox did not want Epstein to leave.  Outwardly, after it became clear that he would not be returning, unnamed Red Sox employees began to change their tune on Epstein's tenure in Boston.  He had over-spent, not developed players well, and missed on many occassions.  While much of this may be true, he also won two World Series in a town that had fell under a Championship drought unlike any baseball had seen (except in Chicago). 

As yesterday's teaser of a press release came out, all the rumors of who would be coming with Epstein, of who would replace him, of moves to fill the voids began to fall into reality.  And these moves will shake the landscape of the entire League like a nationwide earthquake.  For better or worse, the names and faces we knew, and those we didn't, will be shuffled up and sprayed all over the fields and offices of baseball like a game of 52 pick-up.  Below is a glimpse of just a few of the known (or rumored) changes we will see. 

Theo Epstein:

The wunderkind, boy-prodigy, and savior of Boston is gone.  He takes over the Chicago Cubs in a position with more control, more power, and more questions.  He will be announced as the Cubs' President Tuesday, starting a new era in Chicago.  He will also be tasked with building a front office capable of evaluating players, employees, ticket sales, and promotions.  And that starts at the GM position, leading us to Jed Hoyer.

Jed Hoyer:

The former Epstein assistant, and friend, will be announced officially on Tuesday as the new General Manager of the Cubs.  The clubs released joint statements yesterday confirming as much.  Hoyer's tenure with San Diego was much too short for an real reflection on his talent.  It is clear that he has a determination and drive for success.  He clearly understood what it meant to be the GM of a small-market club.  He made moves that would easily be classified under the buy low-sell high category.  Unfortunately, many of those moves failed to pan out.  Given slightly more resources, more time, and the expert tutelage of Theo Epstein, Hoyer may develop into one of the game's best GM's.  But he, like Epstein, will be leaving a hole at his former position. 

Josh Byrnes:

Byrnes was hired by Jeff Moorad as GM when both were in Arizona.  Moorad later began the long process of buying the San Diego Padres in installment payments.  He left Byrnes to fend for himself in Arizona and hired Jed Hoyer because, well, he needed a GM.   Byrnes had some success in Arizona, but he also had some pretty famous failures.  He help the Diamondbacks to a 2007 National League Championship appearance.  Unfortunately, he only guided the club to one more winning season during his tenure, an 82-80 season in 2008.  He was fired in the middle of the 2010 season and replaced by former Padres GM Kevin Towers.  Byrnes is considered by most to be a very intelligent executive.  He seems to know what it takes to put together a winning ballclub on paper.  In practice though, he swung and missed on as many moves and he connected with.  I will not throw the Dan Harren trade in the swing and miss category.  Look at what he did for the Angels this season.  I will, however, point out the Eric Byrnes contract.  Yes, that Eric Byrnes who doesn't even play professional baseball anymore.  Perhaps, Josh Byrnes was left in a situation beyond his control.  Perhaps, a promotion to GM under Jeff Moorad in San Diego will be beneficial.  But time will only tell.  As the Padres Executive Vice President, there has not been enough to show whether he will succeed as the Padres GM. 

Ben Cherrington:

When Theo Epstein attempted to leave Boston in 2005, Ben Cherrington and Jed Hoyer were tasked with sharing the General Manager duties.  They would be co-GM's.  As we all know, Epstein chose to return to Boston, won another World Series with the club, and left Cherrington waiting for his chance.  That chance appears to be imminent.  I have not heard anyone quote a source who said the Red Sox would go in any other direction than Cherrington as their next GM.  Cherrington has been with Boston for 14 years now, knows the system well, and has been assisting Theo Epstein every step of the way.  He is the natural choice for the position.  Cherrrington shares in many of Epstein's beliefs in player development, data analysis, and how to develop wins in general.  No one truly knows what his relationship with Larry Luchino, the Red Sox President and CEO, is and how it will further take shape as Cherrington takes the helm as GM.  However, Cherrington has had years to adapt and work alongside Luchino.  Ben Cherrington's first order of business?  Salvaging a sinking Boston ship that has seen more than its fair share of drama since September 1st.

Mike Quade:

While nothing official has been announced, or even discussed for all I know, it is widely thought that Epstein's first order of business once the front office is in place will be to find a new manager.  Many will say Quade never had a chance.  He was handed a group of players that no manager could win with.  But that's not the issue.  Quade didn't have to win with them.  He had to perform and not make Cubs fans embarrassed for rooting for these players.  He had to take differing personalities and help them mesh in the clubhouse and on the field.  A few Carlos Zambrano blow-ups, some dugout fights, a short-live retirement, and a disqualification later it has become clear that Quade is not the guy to make things come together in Chicago. 

A.J. Hinch:

The front office executive-turned Major League manager-turned lower level executive is due for a promotion if Josh Byrnes take over General Manager duties.  Hinch started with the Diamondbacks in the front office as the Director of Player Development.  In May of 2009 he was promoted from the front office to the clubhouse when he took over skipper duties.  There were questions from the start.  Hinch lacked any real coaching experience.  He was a former player, but never any type of on-field coach.  Those questions proved to be based on real concerns as Hinch suffered through two losing seasons before being dumped along with Josh Byrnes.  The Padres and Jeff Moorad quickly scooped him up and made him the Vice President of Player Development.  When Hoyer leaves, he is expected to take his assistant GM, Jason Mcleod with him.  This will open an assistant GM position that will likely be filled by Hinch.

Jason McLeod: 

The current assistant General Manager of the Padres is expected to continue his same duties under Jed Hoyer in Chicago.  The Cubs and the Padres have already reached a compensation and "pilfering" agreement in which the Cubs agree to leave the rest of the Padres front office alone.  McLeod is most notable for his scouting ability.  While under Epstein and Hoyer in Boston he found Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz,  Jed Lowrie, and Jacoby Ellsbury.  While it's still too early to tell how his drafts in San Diego will pan out, many consider the Padres farm system to be one of the best.  McLeod will be missed in San Diego, but his replacement, A.J. Hinch, has a knack for developing talent. 

John Lackey:

So far, Lackey's potential move to San Diego is only rumored.  It seemed certain prior to talks with the Cubs and Red Sox fell apart regarding Epstein and compensation.  If the Red Sox do eat the majority of Lackey's contract and ship him off to San Diego, Lackey will just be another domino to fall.  Lackey is much maligned in Boston right now.  He may benefit from a reunion with Bud Black, the former Angels pitching coach while Lackey pitched in Los Angeles.  A pitcher-friendly ballpark would help him return to form much like it has for Aaron Harang and Jon Garland.

The Rest:

Andrew Friedman of Tampa Bay will, by all accounts, remain with Tampa now that the Cubs have just about figured out their entire front office.  Friedman was considered by some and even better choice than Epstein for GM.  However, it appears the Rays will get to keep the man who has led them to the postseason three of the last four years with a payroll that ranked in the bottom fourth of all of baseball.  

The Yankees will hold on to Brian Cashman who was rumored for the Cubs job as well.  The club and Cashman still seem to have a good relationship, so his remaining time in New York should not be overshadowed by his connection to the Cubs' GM search. 

The lower-level executives of both the Padres front office and the Red Sox front office will still need to be worked out.  For example, A.J. Hinch will need to be replaced.  Ben Cherrington and other will need to be replaced in Boston.

The amount of job openings and employee moves generated by one man's decision are astounding.  The pressure on Epstein to win in Chicago will be huge, while the pressure on Cherrington in Boston might actually lighten.  Byrnes will feel little pressure to start in San Diego.  Overall, the moves do not seem bad for baseball.  The talent was not funneled into one team, but spread out across the League and across the nation.  Epstein's move will forever be remembers as one of, if not the biggest, ripple-effect move in baseball history.

Every now and again, there will be a change in baseball that shakes the very core of the game. Many may not consider Terry Francona's departure from the Red Sox one of these changes, but I do. This departure, whether it be mutual, forced, or otherwise, will not only affect the Red Sox from a managerial standpoint, it will affect the entire organization. Like an earthquake centered in New England, the loss of Francona will reverberate not just in Boston, but in entire baseball east. Maybe further.

Let's start with what seems obvious. Terry Francona was the best manager the Red Sox ever had. For a franchise buried beneath generations of failure, the combination of Theo Epstein and Terry Francona proved to be the savior Red Sox Nation needed. They won two World Series in the last ten years and have been competitive every year. But now comes life after Francona, and maybe life after Epstein.

Sure many will point to the reported disconnect between Francona and Epstein as reason for Epstein to celebrate the loss of his manager and continue on in peace as the Red Sox general manager. Yet, Theo, like Francona, has done just about everything he could do with Boston. He has the opportunity to be challenged elsewhere, to find success in another city buried under years of failure. Epstein may stick around Boston, but the consensus seems to be he's willing to look elsewhere.

Francona will land somewhere else. He will be allowed to start fresh, to command the respect of a clubhouse from day one rather than fight to win it back on a daily basis, and to utilize his talents as a manager in a way less scrutinized by the front office.

Yes, Francona and Epstein may move on, but will Boston? John Henry's Yankee-fighting juggernaut is being dismantled. Dirty laundry is being thrown from the windows. Rumors and truth are swirling together like a deadly elixir. The Red Sox are at a fork in the road even if Epstein sticks around. Seasons like this one tend to carry on and follow a team like an unwanted cat. One wrong signing in the offseason, the wrong managerial choice, or even a bad piece of off-field publicity could send this team from perennial competitor to a fight and scratch type club.

The potential falling of the Red Sox could open the door for Toronto and Tampa. Toronto continues to have winning seasons, but also continues to fall short of the play-offs. Tampa Bay has one of the best GM/Manager combinations in all of baseball. They continue to succeed with minimal payroll and should benefit from any hiccup in the Red Sox winning ways.

Boston, as of right now, has only lost Terry Francona. But that loss may be more than anyone could have ever guessed. It could lead to a domino-style destruction of the Red Sox to which we have grown accustomed. Tito gave the Sox everything he had. They rewarded him with respect and titles for so long. But when that faded, he and the organization had little choice but to part ways. Where both parties go from here remains anyone's guess.