The 5.5 Hole

This has been well covered by now, and probably forgotten after Wednesday night's greatness, but Jose Reyes broke a cardinal rule of competition. The Mets didn't do it, Jose Reyes did it. And he didn't break an unwritten rule of baseball, he broke a written rule of sports and of people dedicated to being the best.

Reyes would have won the batting title regardless with Ryan Braun throwing down an 0-5 night, but when he took himself out of the game after his bunt single, Reyes showed how concerned he was and how focused he was on personal success. The Mets weren't playing for anything. Their game was over well before the drama and intrigue of Wednesday night's masterpieces. Yet the fans came to the park to see Reyes and possibly bid him farewell.

In looking for a huge offseason contract, Reyes may very well leave the Mets. And if he does, the city of New York will have one final memory; Reyes walking off the field after a first inning single at his own request. I'm not going to make the Ted Williams comparisons. That's been done enough. I'll simply say that true competitors want to be on the field until the final the out of the season.

Jose Reyes has always seemed like a likable guy. He's always seemed to play hard. He may be injury-prone, but he always tried. Now, I question his commitment. I question his focus. The Mets could have said "no, you're playing," but ultimately, Reyes had to make this decision, and he made the wrong one.

We are still a couple months away from handing out the hardware, but everyone and their mother is talking about the Cy Young and the MVP. Rather than just pick my favorites, I'm doing something a little different. I am creating an entirely new award. I've touched on the subject briefly when discussing a pitcher as an MVP. Here's the gist; I believe a pitcher should be able to win the MVP and the Cy Young as long as there is an overall best position player award.

So, in that vein, I created The Ripken Award. Cal Ripken Jr. spent much of his career playing for bad teams. But he was always great. The Ripken Award will go to the best overall position player in each league without concern about that player's team's record. This is truly an individual award for the best position player. We will still discuss the MVP and Cy Young awards as well. So, here we go:

A.L. MVP:
Justin Verlander - Let's face it, the Tigers would not be anywhere near the top of the division without Justin Verlander. They would probably be under .500, looking up at the Indians and White Sox. His 21 wins so far blows away the competition and his WAR leads all pitchers. If you are truly picking a player who has performed amazingly well and been the key to his team's success, Verlander is that player.

A.L. Cy Young:
Justin Verlander - Wins still mean something among baseball enthusiasts. I understand the argument that a pitcher only controls 50% of the outcome of a game (clearly that percentage fluctuates based on different situations, but 50% is pretty easy to use for this example). Runs are produced by the offense and runs are saved by the defense. The pitcher makes up a big part of the defense, but a small part of the offense. Therefore, the value of the wins stat is often minimized. But 130 years of baseball keeps wins as an important gauge to a pitcher's season.

We already know Verlander leads the league in wins, so let's focus on what else he has done. At 7.7 WAR, he leads Halladay by a full 1.3 WAR. Verlander also leads the league in hits per 9 by a wide margin at 6.215. Finally, his 224 strikeouts leads all of baseball by 12. And it gives him a decent shot at 250 on the year. All said, Verlander is the clear A.L. Cy Young winner.

A.L. Ripken Award:
Jose Bautista - Among position players, Bautista is dominating the WAR category at 8.1. The next closest in the American League is Dustin Pedroia with 6.7. His .449 OBP ranks number one and 19 points better than the next American Leaguer. His 39 home runs and 109 walks also put him tops in the A.L.

N.L. MVP:
Ryan Braun - His team has a death grip on first place, and he has been a major reason. He'd working on a 30/30 season. He just needs 5 more home runs to reach 30. He's already got 31 stolen bases. Braun's .987 OPS ranks him number one in the National League. So do his 93 runs scored. Finally, his 6.7 WAR puts him right behind Matt Kemp (we'll get to him in a minute).

N.L. Cy Young:
Cliff Lee - This was a close race with Clayton Kershaw. Lee's June and his August give him the edge though. Two undefeated months in any year will put you on the fast track to a CY Young. Lee is an outlier in an awards season picked by straightforward statistics. Lee only leads one category, shutouts with 5. But he ranks near the top in almost every other pitcher ranking. He's second in pitcher WAR with 5.7, sixth in ERA at 2.59, fourth in WHIP at 1.053, and fifth in K/9 at 9.15.  Cliff Lee is as complete an all-around pitcher as we have seen in a long time.  My apologies to Clayton Kershaw, but Cliff Lee gets my pick.

N.L. Ripken Award:
Matt Kemp - Kemp leads all of baseball with 8.4 WAR.  The next closest in the National League is Ryan Braun, a whopping 1.9 WAR behind.  Matt Kemp's triple slash is admirable by itself: .321/.399/.568.  He is third in the N.L. in hits with 163, and has a legitimate shot at 200.  He is tied for second in home runs with 31 and third in RBI's with 103.  If not for Ryan Braun and Jose Reyes, we'd be talking about Kemp pushing towards a triple crown.  Kemp is by far the best position player in the league, but he plays for the Dodgers.  They are only better than the Padres in the West and can barely draw any fans.  That's why he won't win the MVP, but he's a lock for the first annual Ripken Award.

There you have it.  The awards have been handed out.  I highly doubt we will see much change over the last month of the season.  I left out Rookie of the Year because the award has little meaning.  To be the best rookie simply means you play better than everyone else on a reduced scale.  An award that is presented to someone for less contribution would make no sense if not awarded to rookies.  So we'll leave that one to the voters.  

I'll still talk about it. I'll still write about it. I'll even still use it to analyze players. But by itself, batting average is as close to useless a stat as you can get. On-base percentage shows everything batting average shows and more.

It's easy to look at a player with a batting average over .300 and think he's a good player. It's simple to just take that stat and assume that hitter can contribute. Yet, succeeding at the plate (success in this case means getting a hit) 30% of the time is impressive only if that player is also getting on base in other ways. Let's take a look at some of the league leaders in batting average verse some of the leaders in on-base percentage. Only players with at least 300 plate appearances will be considered.

Top 5 in batting average:

Adrian Gonzalez .345
Michael Young .336
Jose Reyes .336
Ryan Braun .334
Miguel Cabrera .328

Top 5 in OBP:

Jose Bautista .453
Joey Votto .438
Miguel Cabrera .432
Prince Fielder .409
Adrian Gonzalez .406

There's a bit of variation here, but we still see two of the same players we saw on the BA list. Let's break this down further.

The league average for BA and OBP are .255 and .320 respectively. There are currently 19 players who are at .255 or lower in batting average but higher than .320 in OBP. Conversely, there 14 players whose BA is at or above league average but have an OBP lower than league average.

Let's take this analysis deeper, to a specific player level. Prince Fielder is hitting .295, which is nothing to ignore and a very nice average. But it's only 15.7% higher than the league average. I'd be willing to bet a quick salary check reveals Fielder's pay to be more than 15.7% higher than league average, so hopefully he's contributing elsewhere. And he is. In home runs and OBP. His .409 OBP ranks him 27.8% better than league average.

Below are three other players whose BA's wouldn't suggest they are much more special than average but their OBP's do:

Lance Berkman: .289 BA (13.3% better than average)/.405 OBP (26.5% better than average)

Nick Swisher: .267 BA (4.7% better than average)/.383 OBP (19.7% better than average)

Kevin Youkalis: .266 BA (4.3% better than average)/.380 OBP (18.8% better than average)

Finally, there are more players with a higher than average OBP than there are players with a higher than average BA. There is quite a bit of talent out there being undervalued because of batting average alone.

Many articles have touched on BA vs. OBP, and it seems increasingly clear that batting average means far less than OBP. So as I continue to hypocritically analyze players based on batting average and be awed by players hitting for a high average, remember OBP means so much more.

Up to the time of his injury, Jose Reyes was the hands down, stop even debating, foregone conclusion, lock for the National League MVP. Now though, Andrew McCutchen is giving him a run for his money. And here's the biggest difference; McCutchen is playing for a first place team (as of end of play on Friday).

Let's take a quick look at their stats coming into Saturday, then we will jump into the meat and potatoes of our discussion.

Jose Reyes:

Andrew McCutchen:




Jose Reyes' batting average blows McCutchen out of the water, but how about the on-base percentages?  McCutchen is sitting on a .390 OBP while Reyes has a similar .398.  Reyes has more hits and more stolen bases, but McCutchen has more walks and more home runs.  But here's the kicker, McCutchen has 24 more RBI's than Reyes.  Jose Reyes has accounted for 97 runs between RBI's and runs scored.  McCutchen has accounted for 110. 

Really, these two players are so evenly matched, the normal stat line doesn't do this debate justice.  It's like picking between scrambled eggs or an omlet.  It's like choosing curly fires or straight cut.  Forget about the large gap in batting averages for a minute and just look at those stat lines.  Reyes and McCutchen have the exact same amount of doubles.  Reyes has 11 more triples, but McCutchen has 11 more home runs.  The difference between slugging percentage is only .021.  And the difference between OPS (slugging percentage plus on-base percentage) is just .030.

Let's take a look at Fangraph's WAR rating for each of these two.  Not suprisingly, they both rate at a 5.2 WAR for the 2011 season.

So what distinguishes these two talents.  Their position in the field?  Maybe.  Andrew McCutchen's defense in the outfield has given him an 8.3 Ultimate Zone Rating by Fangraphs.  This rating measures the runs above the MLB average saved by defense.  (The MLB average used for the purpose of this stat is 0).  Jose Reyes is currently rated 1.0.  However, this stat can be somewhat misleading.  If we use career averages, McCutchen's three years and Reyes' eight years, we get a much different picture.  Jose Reyes' UZR for his career is 17.6.  However, McCutchen's is only -6.7.

The true test of an MVP candidate's impact on the game are not just the statistics he puts up.  They are the intangibles.  Andrew McCutchen is leading a Pittsburgh Pirates team that lost 105 games last season to first place coming into Saturday.  Jose Reyes is the best player on a Mets team that is so deep in financial problems some might consider them the Junior Varsity version of the Dodgers.  McCutchen is 24 years old with many more productive years ahead of him.  Jose Reyes is often viewed as injury-prone and at 28 years old, likely has about six good years at shortstop left.

McCutchen hits for power and average.  He draws walks.  He is well-liked.  While Jose Reyes is having a great season, is well-liked himself, and has had a productive major league career to date, the very definition of Most Valuable Player precludes him from consideration in my book.  The Most Valuable Player is the player that contributes the most to his team and provides the most value.  Jose Reyes is absolutely the MVP of the Mets.  Hands down.  But, Andrew McCutchen is the MVP of the league.

History tells us a team's record has little to do with the MVP voting, but in this case preference points need to be awarded.  The Pirates have, for eighteen years, been a team so deep in disappointment, their opponents could almost guarantee themselves a series win each and every time out.  Andrew McCutchen has helped turn that around.  He has helped the Pirates climb to the top.  Whether they stay there or not is up in the air, but 91 games is a pretty good sample size when gauging success.

Jose Reyes may be earning himself a fat paycheck after this season, but McCutchen may be earning much more; Success and pride for a team that's been missing those two things for almost two decades.