The 5.5 Hole

It's interesting how one arrives at a story idea.  I read a an article about the Padres and their plans for 2012.  The article had very little to do with the size of Petco Park.  It had very little to do with the general feel from most fans and players that the walls need to be brought in.  Yet, that's exactly what I pulled from the article.  I was charged up and ready to defend the so-called "pitcher's parks" in baseball.  But as I began my research (which started with park factor stats), I discovered something far more interesting.  The league leader in park factor for both runs and home runs has been on a steady increase since 2008 after and steady decrease from 2001-2008.  (Note: there was a slight drop in the leader for park factor related to home runs in 2011)

Park factor simply compares the rate of a specified stat at home for teams vs. the rate on the road.  A park factor of 1 is average.  Anything less than 1 is below average and anything over 1 is above average.  For example, 1.25 would be 25% higher than the average.  For the math nerds, ESPN has a calculation for you: ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)).

Below is a chart of the park factor leaders in runs from 2001-2011:



And the park factor leaders for home runs from 2001-2011:



As you can see, the two charts have a similar slope.  Downward from 2001-2008, and upward after:







Why was there such a shift in park factor leaders starting in 2009?

There have been four new ballparks opened since the start of the 2008 season; The New Yankee Stadium (2009), Citi Field (2009), Nationals Park (2008), and Target Field (2010).  Now we can easily say that Yankee Stadium is conducive to offense.  The first year of existence saw a record number of home runs hit.  It has been in the top four for park factor home runs since it opened.  In 2011, Yankee Stadium ranked 6th in park factor for runs.  In 2010, it ranked second.  Nationals park has hovered around average for both runs and home runs since it opened.  Both Citi Field and Target Field are thought to lean more towards the pitcher-friendly side of the fence.

Even if the new ballparks caused an overall shift, the shift would only apply to the average.  These numbers in the charts above reflect the league leader each year.  In 2008, the last year of the decline in park factor for runs, the Rangers led the league.  In 2009 and 2010, the Rockies led the league in park factor for runs as we started to see the park factor climb.  In 2011, the Rangers again led.  For home runs, the park factor leader stayed the same in 2008 and 2009.  The Yankees led both of those years.  Then, as the park factor leader's numbers began to climb, the White Sox led the league in 2010, followed by the Rangers in 2011.

This tells me more about the make-up of these teams rather than the parks themselves.  There have not been enough drastic changes to the ballparks to cause the upward slope we see in the park factor leader boards.  To me, it seems the clubs with offense-friendly ballparks have begun doing a better job of putting together teams that can exploit those parks.  Once a front office has determined what type of players fit a ballpark best, the team should and usually does play that park to a distinct home field advantage. 

From 2001-2008 teams had less separation and the leaders in park factor runs and home runs were getting closer and closer to average.  However, as teams adjusted and attempted to build clubs that reflect the ballpark better, the successful ones opened the gap. 

I can't imagine the fan bases in Texas and St. Louis slept a wink last night.  It's now the morning after one of the greatest, if not the greatest, World Series games in history.  It was sloppy, competitive, offensive heavy, dramatic, and beautiful.  It was a game that saw the Cardinals trailing by two in the ninth, down to their final strike.  It was a game that found the Cardinals again trailing by two in the tenth, again down to their final strike.  In both cases, the Cardinals stood in there, continued to fight, and tied the game.  Which of course led to the redemption of all redemption.  David Freese's walk-off game six home run will be forever remembered with some of the most famous World Series home runs.  Maybe more so because he also dropped a pop-up on the in-field earlier in the game. 

No one knows for certain who will win Game Seven tonight, but one thing is certain; the season will come to an end tonight.  Perhaps these two teams will continue to pitch and slug and field their way to the longest Game Seven in history.  Maybe they will play through the night and finish Game Seven in the wee hours of Saturday morning.  I wouldn't put any of this past these two teams.  It's fitting that we have been given this great World Series after the last day of the season provided the greatest single day of baseball's regular season.  It's also sad that it has to end.

This is not a season recap.  This is just a reminder of how great baseball can be.  I was reminded by someone that had last night's game been a football game, the trailing team never would have had a shot to come back.  In football, the leading team would take a few knees and run out the clock.  Baseball's lack of a game clock makes it great.  No other sport allows for the momentum swings as quickly as baseball.  After the Cardinals tied the game in the bottom of the ninth, it would have been easy for the Rangers to get lost in momentum of the Cardinals.  But they didn't. Josh Hamilton stepped to the plate and hit a two-run home run that would have been his crowning achievement and the moment that would make his story the perfect movie.  Momentum swing, Rangers.  Then, the Cardinals again came back and tied the game in the bottom of the tenth.

There will be more to write once the season ends tonight.  One team will have a magical end to a season-long story straight from a fairytale.  One team will come up shorts after making an improbable run.  No matter the case, the World Series Champion this season will be a team no one really saw coming.  

One team is owned by the only man to have tossed seven no-hitters.  The only man to have struck out more than 5,000 batters.  The only man to have beat the heck out of Robin Ventura.  OK, that last one has little to do with baseball, but still proves Nolan Ryan's toughness.  The Rangers were built to pitch.  "New" philosophies were introduced by Ryan and his management team.  Pitchers would go longer in games.  There would be less focus on pitch counts and more focus on results.  They were going to win the way the Giants beat them in 2010; with pitching. 

The other team started the year with two legitimate Cy Young candidates in Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.  They had a potent offense, sure, but they also boasted a pitching coach who churned out four Cy Young award winners (LaMarr Hoyt, Bob Welch, Dennis Eckersley, and Chris Carpenter).  They were managed by a man who focuses so much on pitching, he's been known to change pitchers in the middle of an at-bat.  They were going to breeze through this season and the play-offs on the strengths of their arms. 

Then they had to play the games.  Adam Wainwright blew out his arm.  The Rangers were unable to re-sign Cliff Lee.  And both teams finished the year outside the top-ten in ERA, and strikeouts.  Neither team was horrible at pitching, but neither team was great.  Yet, their offenses clicked at the right time.  The Cardinals overcame an eight-game deficit in September to take the Wild Card while the Rangers fought off the Angels and their perennially competitive ways. 

Two teams who were seemingly built on pitching, succeeded and plowed through the postseason on everything but. The Rangers put together a disappointing 4.40 ERA during the postseason so far.  The Cardinals did not fair much better.  They posted a 4.27 ERA.  Their offenses fared a bit better.  The Rangers scored a total of 55 runs.  The Cardinals scored 62. 

The second year into what many have dubbed "The Pitchers' Era" has provided a postseason with very little pitching dominance.  The World Series will likely be much of the same.  The Rangers, and Nelson Cruz specifically, are so locked in, their offense doesn't seem like it's going to let up.  The Cardinals, with the barber-shop quartet of Pujols, Berkman, Holliday, and Freese, should light up the scoreboards with regularity.  So, keep plenty of pencils on hand  if you plan to keep score.  Your scorecard will be marked up more than a high school geometry test.

I love baseball. I love do-or-die elimination games, extra innings, and pitcher's duels. I love clutch hits, great plays, and winning runs.

From the last day of the season on, baseball has been absolutely fantastic. The greatest single regular season day in baseball history has been followed up with division series' in both leagues for the ages. There were no sweeps, no easy advancements. The Rays and the Rangers were the only series not to go the full five games. But each game was intense and exciting. Two games in that series came down to some bottom of the ninth drama, and three out of the four games were decided by 2 runs or less. And that was just the series that DIDN'T end in a game five matchup.

The Yankees got the matchup they wanted in the Division Series when they hosted the Tigers, but quickly found themselves down two games to one. The juggernaut Yankees threw CC Sabathia in Game One and the Tigers threw the soon-to-be unanimous Cy Young pick Justin Verlander. They both got through one inning, then the rain came and erased a matchup most of the baseball world had been anticipating from the second the matchups were announced.

With the series knotted up at one game a piece, we finally got that matchup we had been looking forward to so much. But the offense stole the show. The game ended with a Tigers 5-4 win and pushed the Yankees to the brink of elimination with perhaps their worst pitcher slated to start Game Four.

AJ Burnett did start Game Four despite the collective groans from all of New York City. And he out-pitched even what he could have expected. A solo blast was all he gave up, and he powered the Yankees to a Game Five at home. And what a Game Five it was. Every pitch was important. Every pitch had fans on the edges of their seats. Just as the Tigers looked like they were going to pull away, the Yankees pulled to within one and were still threatening.

Joaquin Benoit threw some of the most exciting pitches anyone will ever get in a ball game. One missed spot could have spelled the end to the Tigers season, but he located them all, and calmly got the Tigers out of the inning, bridging the gap to Jose Valverde who hadn't blown a save all season long. And that trend continued as he closed out the series with a strikeout of Alex Rodriguez.

If that excitement was too much for you, grab yourself a pace-maker because there were two more Game Fives left to play.

The Brewers and the Diamondbacks met in the division series like twins separated at birth. These teams both have new managers, both had turned their seasons around, and both got surprisingly dominant pitching all season long. For every Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder there was a Justin Upton and Paul Goldschmidt. For every Zach Greinke and Yovani Gallardo, there was an Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson.

And when these twins, separated at birth, met this postseason, they showed fans the love and passion only baseball can bring. Nyjer Morgan was the fuel that powered a Brewers team full of young, dedicated players. Kirk Gibson's attitude shoved dysfunctional teammates together and turned the Diamondbacks into one of the closest clubhouses in baseball. All this translated to greatness on the field. Both the Brewers fans and the Diamondbacks fans matched each other's intensity. And like any great teams, the home games were won by the home teams.

When Game Five arrived, the fans outside of Arizona and Wisconsin didn't want the series to end. And it seemed the teams didn't either. The Diamondbacks jumped out to an early lead, then the Brewers leap-frogged in front. After squandering a bases-loaded situation in the eighth, it looked like the Diamondbacks season would be coming to an end, but they roared back to tie it in the ninth. But the never-say-die attitude and the power drawn from the passionate Brewers fans would not allow them to lose. In the bottom of the tenth the Brewers scored and propelled themselves to their first play-off series win since 1982.

Finally, the Cardinals and Phillies capped off the slew of Game Fives.

After the Cardinals were out-scored 14-3 in the last four innings of Game One and first three innings of Game Two combined, it would have been easy for the Cardinals to lay down and act as the welcome mat to the League Championship Series for the Phillies. But they didn't. The Cardinals stormed back and won Game Two.

Back in St. Louis, the Phillies took Game Three and pushed the Cardinals to the brink of elimination. But with the help of a newly dubbed "rally squirrel" who raced across home plate just as Roy Oswalt was delivering his pitch, the Cardinals forced Game Five.

Game Five was a matchup of old friends and Cy Young winners. Both Roy Halladay and Chris Carpenter were pitching on full rest and had been at the tops of their games down the final stretch of the season. The pitting of Halladay against Carpenter was like something from a movie script. These two were good friends coming up through the Blue Jays organization and both always wanted to get better. Well, they did and they faced each other in this incredible elimination game.

Halladay made two mistakes in the first inning but was dominant throughout the rest of his eight innings. On any other night an eight inning, one run performance would likely have given the Phillies the win, but Chris Carpenter was better. Carpenter tossed a three-hit, complete game shut-out. His performance can be classified as one of the best in postseason history. Now, the Cardinals move on to face the Brewers.

This postseason has lived up to everything play-off baseball should be. Friends facing each other for the right to keep playing, clutch home runs when a team seems down and out, and payrolls that don't rank in the top-five in all of baseball.

Bring on the League Championship Series.

Last night, 120 grown men and a handful of their coaches transformed into something usually reserved for Little League. These men became jubilant little boys with smiles a mile wide. They jumped and shouted, cheered and clapped. They donned championship shirts and caps, and they took celebratory dips in the pool. The daily grind of playing 162 games slipped away for a night, and these men became the boys they once were, more concerned about celebrating with their friends than multi-million dollar contracts.

The Arizona Diamondbacks, Milwaukee Brewera, and Texas Rangers all clinched division titles last night. Each of them did it at home and were given the opportunity to celebrate with their fans. The Diamondbacks ran around the infield and dog-piled J.J. Putz, then took a trip to the outfield pool. The Rangers sat on the field after their win and watched, with many of the night's fans still in attendance, the Angels lose to the Athletics giving the Rangers the division. The Brewers left little doubt about their division title with monster home runs and great defensive plays. They all experienced the joy that only baseball can bring.

The Diamondbacks, Brewers, and the Rangers joined the Yankees, Phillies, and Tigers as division champs for 2011. Let's take a look at how these three newest entries to the 2011 postseason did it.

Arizona Diamondbacks:

There were two men specifically responsible for the Dbacks success this season, and neither of them played a single game. Kirk Gibson and Kevin Towers have changed the culture of this team and helped build the chemistry necessary for success. Kirk Gibson's no-nonsense approach and his championship pedigree made him instantly credible in the clubhouse. His leadership has brought a group of relatively dysfunctional players together. Kevin Towers has continued his tradition of making the most of his trades and signings. He may go down in history as a genius with his Kelly Johnson for Aaron Hill move. Everyone, myself included, thought that was a bad move, but Towers saw something in Hill that none of us could see.

Justin Upton has finally lived up to his potential and is having an MVP caliber season. Maybe it's the comfort he feels with this team. Maybe it's the fact that he isn't the only one expected to produce. Whatever the case, Upton has put all of his talents to use this season and carried the Diamondbacks offensively.

Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson have provided a one-two punch the Diamondbacks haven't seen since Johnson and Schilling led them to the World Series. Kennedy quietly put together a Cy Young caliber season, and Daniel Hudson is continuing to improve as a Diamondback.

Milwaukee Brewers:

Two words: Braun and Fielder. Ryan Braun will likely win the National League MVP, and Fielder is having -well- a Fielder-like season. The Brewers have been together long enough to have multiple veterans leading the team. They've improved their pitching quite a bit since their last play-off appearance, and they are hungry for success.

Zach Greinke has been unstoppable at home, which is part of why the Brewers have also been unstoppable at home. With the best home record in baseball, the Brewers have made it look easy. As they battle with Arizona for home-field advantage during the first round, each game remains increasingly important to a team who doesn't lose at home.

Texas Rangers:

Nolan Ryan has infused new life into this ball club since taking over ownership. With a combination a new pitching philosophies and power hitting, the Ranger have made themselves a force to be reckoned with. Like many great teams before them, much of the Rangers' pitching value comes from a shutdown bullpen. Neftali Feliz, Koji Uehara, Darren Oliver, Mike Adams, and just about anyone else that trots out from that bullpen has been lights out this season.

Then there's the offense. Josh Hamilton has been healthy all of September unlike last season which should give him some confidence and momentum heading into the postseason. He has helped the Ranger widen the gap this month and take the division away from the Angels last night. Nelson Cruz has battled injuries this year, but when healthy has been as good as he always has been. Adrian Beltre has slowly been worked back into the line up after injury, but is already contributing. Beltre's power gives the Rangers another boost that can only help them as they enter the postseason.

All year long, the Rangers have had one of the most potent offenses in the league. Mike Napoli, who is playing out of his mind, Hamilton, Beltre, Cruz, Young, Kinsler. There is not an easy outin this line up. That's why they are back-to-back division champions in the AL West.



Soak in the joy of a division crown boys, but don't linger too long in celebration because there's still work to be done by all of you

My advice to the Boston faithful: close your eyes and hope for the best. With their faces buried in their hands with silent prayers floating through their minds, the Red Sox Nation is in full panic mode. And they should be.

While the Rays are furiously banging on the Red Sox door, the Angels are politely knocking. At just 4 games back, the Angels have inserted themselves as a second layer of Wild Card competition for the Sox. The difference, of course, is the scheduling. The Rays still have three vitally important games against the team they're chasing. The Angels, probably more focused on the Rangers, have none against the Red Sox.

Over in the National League, The Beer-Makers are in a similar spot. After building what seemed to be an insurmountable lead in the Central, the Brewers are suddenly faced with an entirely surmountable lead. Up 5.5 games on the Cardinals, Milwaukee probably has little to worry about, but a streak of two or three losses could make this interesting.

Beyond that, the Braves, who once seemed destined for the Wild Card, now carry just a 4 game lead over the Cardinals and a 6 game lead over the Giants. Yes, those Giants. With no head-to-head match-ups between these teams, the standings may not change much by the end of the year, but each game becomes more and more important down the stretch.

Just a month and a half ago we all had the play-off match-ups pegged. Yankees or Red Sox host the Tigers and Yankees or Red Sox on the road to Texas. Now things aren't so clear. In case you haven't noticed, the Tigers have the second best record in the A.L. all the sudden. They have moved from a sure-fire road series in the first round to potentially hosting the Red Sox or Rays. Even more surprising is the dwindling gap between the Tigers' record and the Yankees' record. They are now only 3 back in the win column for the American League's best record. Unfortunately, they are 5 back in the loss column and you can't control losses that have already happened.

What about the National League? Well, no one is catching the Phillies. But if I told you on August 1st that in mid-September the Diamondbacks would be tied for the second best record in the N.L., would you have believed me? The Phillies were all set to host Arizona in the first round, but now may be faced with hosting a Brewers club that can be as streaky as the best (or worst) of them.

A month ago, I wrote about what a second Wild Card in each league would look like this season. While in support of the idea, I wrote at the time that it would water-down the play-offs this season. That's no longer the case. How amazingly fun would a three game play-off series be between the Red Sox and Rays? How about the Braves and the Cardinals? These would be compelling match-ups worthy of postseason baseball.

In a 162 game season it's amazing to see such swings in the standings. You'd think things would normalize and start to be clear by September. Instead, thing get even more uncertain. And I love it.

With play-off spots all but locked up, let's take a look at which teams are hottest heading into the last leg of the season. First, we'll look at the contenders' records since the All-Star break.

Division leaders:

Milwaukee: 35-14 .714
Philadelphia: 31-14 .689
New York: 33-18 .647
Arizona: 31-17 .646
Detroit: 31-19 .620
Texas: 29-21 .580

Wild Card leaders:
Atlanta: 28-19 .596
Boston: 29-20 .592

Everyone knows about the Brewers' recent success. Right on their heels are the Phillies who are on pace for 105 wins. The surprising team (if you ignore their massive 7 game lead over the Giants) is the Arizona Diamondbacks. At only 3 games back of Milwaukee's second best record, the Dbacks are in a fight to avoid a 5-game series with the Phillies in the first round of the postseason.

Considering the ups and downs of the Rangers and their lead over the Angels, it shouldn't be surprising they have the worst winning percentage of all play-off contenders since the break.

Records since the All-Star break are often indicative of postseason success, but the Giants showed us all last season that the last month and a half can prove more important. Below are records since August 15th.

Division leaders:

Milwaukee: 15-6 .714
Detroit: 15-6 .714
New York: 14-7 .667
Arizona: 13-7 .650
Philadelphia: 10-7 .588
Texas: 11-10 .524

Wild Card leaders:
Atlanta: 12-6 .667
Boston: 11-6 .647

Interestingly, Milwaukee has the exact same winning percentage. They are tied with the surprising Tigers. The Rangers are the coldest team right now, followed by the Red Sox and Phillies.

Perhaps most surprising is the Yankees winning percentage verse the Red Sox winning percentage since August 15th. Granted both have had to deal with postponements due to Hurricane Irene, but the Sox and Yankees have very similar winning percentages, only .020 apart. Yet, the Yankees have overtaken Boston and now hold a two and a half lead.

The moral of this story is look out for Detroit and Milwaukee, but don't sleep on Arizona and New York. Winners still have to perform on the field, but entering the postseason on a hot streak sure will help.

I wrote a three-part series earlier this year outlining my opinion on what baseball needs to do to increase its popularity. In the first part I explored attendance figure and concluded that totals have held pretty steady. Well forget the numbers. If you open a newspaper, go online, or flip on the television it seems doomsdayers are pointing to the fans' complete abandonment of baseball. They will show you pictures of empty ball parks. They will pick and choose teams, citing all-time lows in attendance. They will pull out the smoke and mirrors, and they may even ask Chris Angel to freak your mind.

The fact is, as pointed out in a completely unrelated Sports Illustrated article, average attendance league-wide is down just 14 fans. 14! Since last year how many more people have lost jobs? How many have taken pay cuts? And baseball has only lost an average of 14 fans per game.

If we were to just look at the teams struggling in attendance, of course we will see a problem. But what about the other teams? What about Pittsburgh who, until last month, was drawing more fans on average than they have in a decade. They've had more sell-outs this season than they have since the 90's. What about San Francisco? As of August 10th they had sold out 60 consecutive home games. What about Boston? You'd have to damn near hit the lottery to afford a scalped ticket to the constantly sold-out Fenway Park. How about St. Louis or Minnesota? Or the Angels and Rangers?

It's popular to believe baseball is dying. It's trendy to throw certain teams' attendance figures around as proof of the sport's decline. But popularity and trends are rarely built on honest fact. Think for yourself, do the research, and know that while it's not the most popular sport, baseball is surviving a terrible economy just fine.

This is the first year I can remember where, as of September 1st, there was literally not a Wild Card chase to found.  That is, unless you consider 7.5 games back or 8.5 games back within striking distance.  Mathematically, there is still a possibility of Atlanta or New York being overtaken for the Wild Card.  Realistically though, not a chance.

As of September 1, 2010, the A.L. Wild Card was all but wrapped up.  In the National League though, the Giants were 1.5 games back of the Phillies, and the Cardinals were 5 games back.  Using the Septemmber 1st date as our constant, let's look at the Wild Card standing back through the 2002 season:

2009: Texas was 4 games back in the American League while San Francisco was 1 back in the senior circuit.  Colorado was 3 back and Florida was 5 back.

2008: The White Sox and Twins were tied at 3 games back of Boston.  In the National League, the race wasn't as tight, but Philadelphia was still 5.5 games back of Milwaukee.

2007:  Seattle was 2 games back in the A.L. and Detroit was 3 games back.  San Diego and Arizona were tied for the Wild Card lead, and Philadelphia was 3 games back.

2006: The Twins were 0.5 games back in the American League, and Boston was 5.5 back.  In the National League there were 7 teams within 5 games of the Wild Card, including Philadelphia and Cincinnati only 0.5 games back.

2005: The Angels, the Yankees, and Oakland were all tied for the Wild Card lead while the Indians were 1 game back and the Twins were 5. In the N.L., Houston was 0.5 games back, Florida was 1.5 games back, the Mets were 2.5 games back, and the Nationals were 3 games back.

2004: The Angels were 3.5 games back of Boston and Texas was 5 games back.  San Francisco, San Diego, Florida, and Houston were at least within 3 games of the Wild Card lead.

2003: Boston was 1.5 games back of Seattle.  The National League again had 7 teams in competition.  All 7 were within 4 games of the lead, with 4 teams within 2.5 games.

2002: Seattle was 2 games back and Boston was 5 games back.  San Francisco was the lone competitor in the N.L. at 2 games back.

In the 9 seasons preceding this one, we have had compelling Wild Card races.  We have had parity.  But suddenly, in 2011, teams are either good, or they are bad.  And a lot of it has to do with pitching.  As Jason Stark wrote yesterday, pitchers are gaining ground on hitters through technology and constant study.  In addition, the reduction in steroid users has brought the game closer to a level playing field. 

Teams who have pitching are successful.  The Phillies clearly have the best rotation in baseball.  The Braves have probably the best bullpen in baseball (not to mention an aging Derek Lowe who slugged a home run yesterday).  The Brewers have a threesome of pitchers who have gelled better than any other team besides the Phillies.  The Diamondbacks have developed Ian Kennedy and Daniel Hudson into legitimate stars and Kennedy is even Cy Young quality.  In the American League, the Red Sox had Clay Buckholtz most of the season to go along with a rejuvenated Josh Becket and a consistent Jon Lester.  The Yankees have CC Sabathia.  The Tigers have the best pitcher in baseball.  And the Rangers have had one of the best staffs all season (they may be breaking down now, but they posted solid number up through about the middle of August).

I am a big proponent of adding another Wild Card in each league, but this season does not help my case much.  There is not a single team out there that cries out, "Hey, we deserve to be in the postseason!"  The Indians have tailed off terribly, the White Sox are inconsistent, the Giants don't have an offense, and the Cardinals don't have pitching.  If a second Wild Card team were in play in each league this season, much like artificial sweetener, it would just be fake. We'd be looking at Tampa Bay and St. Louis as the additional play-off teams.  While those teams could make some noise in the postseason, a glance at there season does not reveal a compelling reason to let them in.

In a league where only 27% of the teams make the postseason, it is easy to wish for more.  But not this year.  There's no one else deserving enough.  The Wild Card races as they are aren't even all that wild. 

How bad do the Angels want to win the division and face the Yankees or Red Sox in the Division Series?  They plan to pitch not one, but two pitchers on three days rest.  In the regular season.  This weekend.  Reportedly, Jered Weaver and Ervin Santana will both start on three days rest for the first time in their careers.  Watch out Rangers, the Angels are in it to win it.

In a study conducted by John Charles Bradbury and Sean Forman, both PhD's, the correlation between pitches thrown and days off for pitchers was examined.  The results were slightly skewed by the relatively small sample size of pitchers who threw on three days rest between 1998 and 2009, but based on that sample size, days off seemed to have little affect on the pitcher's performances.  So why do we see three days rest so rarely?  Why do managers insist on a five-man rotation?  The best answer seems to be the fear of the unknown.  To date, there is no concrete scientific evidence to support a correlation between lesser performance on short rest than full rest.  There is also no evidence to support an increased risk of injury.  Pitch counts seem to be slightly more correlated to both, but only apply to a given game.  Still, the possibility of injury or reduced performance handcuffs many managers.

Mike Scioscia intends to buck that trend.  At least for a weekend.  That goes to show how important this weekend is.  A three game series between the Angels and the Rangers starts tonight, and the Angels intend to throw three aces at Texas.  Dan Haren is scheduled to start tonight, Ervin Santana tomorrow, and Jered Weaver Sunday.  That's a pretty formidable run of pitchers, especially considering the slim 2-game lead the Rangers currently hold.  Just how formidable are those three pitchers?

The three pitchers have combined for a 2.72 ERA, 473 strikeouts to only 120 walks, and a combined 14.3 WAR. 

In the hitter-friendly, designated hitter filled American League, the Angels have one of the best three man rotations in recent memory.  If the Rangers aren't careful, they could wake up Monday looking up at the Angels who have suddenly stolen first place right out from under them. 

With a season of run-away division and Wild Card races, this weekend's contest between the Angels and the Rangers shapes up to be the most meaningful series of the year.  So if you can take your mind off Hurricane Irene for a moment, settle in for play-off baseball in August.

When Texas Rangers' pitcher C.J. Wilson was asked about pitching in Oakland, he launched into a hate-filled rant like a kid who just watched the school jock steal his girlfriend. The problem is, Oakland didn't take his girl, is not anywhere close to being the school jock, and should be the last concern on Wilson's mind.

According to an ESPNDallas.com article, Wilson was asked about the abundance of foul territory in Oakland. His response was a tirade bordering on obsessive.

"I hate pitching there. The mound sucks, the fans suck. There's no fans there."

The Oakland A's are like the family dog. They don't do anything great, but they don't do anything horrible. They're just there. And to me, it felt like Wilson was just kicking the family dog. His reasoning behind his comments is not clear. He sounds like an overly defensive teenager, too concerned with what people think of him.

"They hate me there anyways so it doesn't matter. The players on their team hate me, whatever; I don't care," he went on to say. Really C.J.? It sounds like you do care.

Wilson claimed the hatred comes from playing on rival clubs. Yes, the long-standing, hatred-fueled rivalry between the Texas Rangers and the Oakland Athletics is well documented. It's almost as intense as the Red Sox/Yankees.

Actually it's more like the Diamondbacks and Padres, or the Rays and Orioles.

So, to conclude this matter, can the member of the Oakland A's that stole C.J. Wilson's girlfriend, took his lunch money, and pantsed him in home room please apologize?

The Yankees and Red Sox entered last night's contest in a perfect tie.  Winning percentage, wins, losses.  On August 5th, this should have been one of the biggest (if not the biggest) series of the regular season.  The nation should have been glued to their TV screen whether they loved or hated either team.  The President himself should have been peaking in or getting game updates from Secret Service.

Instead, the series doesn't matter.  The Yankees won last night and took a one game lead entering Saturday.  Barring a miraculous come-back from the Angels or the Rays, both the Yankees and the Red Sox are locks for the postseason.  So what does this series actually mean, besides another chance for ESPN to flex its love of "The Rivarly?"

Let's end the season right now and take a look at the match-ups:

The Yankees would win the East and would face off with Detroit in the Division Series.
Boston would take the Wild Card and would travel to Texas.

Now, let's flip this and say the Red Sox win the next two games, then end the season there:

The Red Sox would win the East and would host the Tigers.
The Yankees would win the Wild Card and take on Texas in Arlington.

So, essentially what this series decides is who travels to Texas and who hosts Detroit.  For many Yankees fans, that could be a big deal.  Just look at what happened last season when New York took on Texas.  However, in the overall play-off picture both New York and Boston will have the two best records at the close of the season.  They both have better teams than Detroit, and probably have better teams than Texas.

The rivalry this year isn't about making the postseason, it's about play-off scenarios.  For that reason, the play-off structure needs to change.  Talks of adding another Wild Card team are great, but there needs to be a better reward for winning the division.  This isn't a new discussion by any means, but it seems to be magnified in this "larger than life" series between the two titans of the American League East.

Many people are arguing for a one-game play-off between the two Wild Card teams (assuming the League does add another Wild Card in each league).  In this scenario teams would hopefully battle more for the division title rather than settling for the Wild Card.  No one wants to play a one-game series.  However, even a three-game series would lead teams down the right path of competition.  Look at the College World Series.  A three game series barely gauges the talent on the field and allows for flukes.  No team entering the play-offs wants to be knocked out by a fluke.

Yankees and Red Sox fans can occupy themselves this weekend with their nationally-televised rivalry of little consequence.  In the mean time, I will be paying attention to the race between the Diamondbacks and the Giants, the race between the Indians and the Tigers, and the race between the Angels and Rangers.