The 5.5 Hole

After 14 innings, Boston had something to celebrate.  No, they didn't clinch the Wild Card.  They didn't clinch anything, in fact.  Except maybe some breathing room.  With Tampa Bay winning their game Sunday and Boston losing the first game of their double-header with New York, game two was a must win.  And if you think the Yankees were going to just roll over since they had already clinched everything they could clinch, you'd be dead wrong.

Brett Gardner's steal, playing the in-field in, Mo in the 9th.  The Yankees were playing to spoil the Red Sox season.  And that's what would have happened had Boston lost this game.  Had they lost, the Rays would have been tied with them for the Wild Card and the Angels would have been just one game back.  Instead, both the Red Sox and Yankees played like this was game seven of the World Series, and finally in the 14th inning, the Red Sox broke through with three runs to win it. 

Let's take a look at what this game really means.  Both the Rays and the Red Sox have three games left.  The Red Sox have three against the Orioles, the Rays three against the Yankees.  The Red Sox have their three on the road, and the Rays have their three at home.  The Yankees would be setting their postseason rotation, so the Rays likely won't see the Yankees' best.  The Orioles, on the other hand, have nothing but pride on the line.  Teams like this love to play spoiler, and their fans would love to see them knock the Red Sox out of the play-offs. 

What else?  Well, had Boston lost, they would have completed the biggest collapse in baseball history.  No one had ever had a 9-game lead on September 1st then blown it.  That's exactly what would have happened had the Red Sox lost game two of the double-header.  Sure, there are more games to play and a loss yesterday would not have precluded the Sox from the postseason, but it would have completed a meltdown of historic proportions. 

Let's not forget the added momentum the Rays would have taken from a Red Sox loss.  The Rays are already hot, despite three straight losses to the Yankees last week.  This time around, the Rays will be playing for their postseason lives.  The Yankees will likely be resting their starters.  Tampa Bay, if their fans actually come out to the park, will be rocking in hopes of a miraculous play-off berth. 

Yes, a Boston loss in game two of that double-header yesterday would have changed things, but these last three games should be intense.  While a tie leading into these last three games would have been more interesting, and it will still take quite a bit of work for the Rays to pull of this upset, play-off baseball has already started. 

Tampa Bay is trying to pull off a feat as improbable as the Colorado Rockies run in 2007.  Maybe as improbable as the '51 Giants in the fact that they are doing this in the American League East, the toughest division in baseball.  They're not there yet, but the Rays are now just 5.5 games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card with 19 games to play.  They're only 5 games back in the loss column. 

These teams play two more games at the Trop this weekend, then face off at Fenway in a four-game series at the end of next week.  Depending on whether the Red Sox can bounce back from injuries and poor pitching performances, they may find themselves on the receiving end of a comeback for the ages. 

On August 1, 2011 the Rays found themselves 9 games back of the Wild Card behind the Yankees and the Angels.  Since that date, they have gone 23-13.  They're 15 games above .500 and hold a (slightly) better record than the Angels who are in a much better position for a postseason appearance.  While 5.5 games back with 19 games to go is not an enviable position, it's a better position than the Rays were in on September 1st.  They were 8.5 games back with just 24 to play.  All but out of the play-off picture much like the White Sox, Indians, and Giants are now.  But now, they're back in it.  They've delayed the discussions of what is sure to be another off-season of "rebuilding" and firmly planted themselves in the play-off discussions instead.

What makes this feat even more remarkable is where this team was at the end of the 2010 season.  Almost a year ago today, on September 22, 2010, Rays owner Stuart Stenberg all but declared the death of competitive baseball in Tampa Bay. He told reporters the Rays would be cutting payroll no matter what.  Not an encouraging sign for a team on its way to another postseason berth and a fan base hoping a deep run would bolster the team's finances.  He said the team would cut payroll in the off-season by $22 million at least, maybe more.  We won't have an accurate picture of what the Rays spent in 2011 until after the season concludes, but it sure looks like a team with a $50 million payroll rather than a $72 million payroll.  But they're still winning.  In the American League East. 

Surprisingly, the Rays have managed to compete with offense and fielding more than pitching.  Sure they have "Complete Game"' Shields and David Price, but outside of those two pitchers, the rotation is not very good.  Shields and Price have combined for 9.5 WAR this season.  The other three starters have combined for only 4.3 WAR (According to Fangraphs). But they've made up for it on offense.  They're offensive WAR of 24.5 ranks them only behind the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers.  They've stole the third most bases in the American League and have the third best success rate for stolen bases.  They're 41.8 Ultimate Zone rating ranks them only behind the Red Sox in the A.L., and they're DRS (defensive runs saved) rating of 61 ranks them number one.

The Tampa Bay Rays have defied expectations, shed payroll, and continued to compete in a division full of offensive juggernauts like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays.  They may not be able to get over the hump and take the Wild Card, but they've given themselves a decent shot.  With the Red Sox struggles and the Rays surge, I wouldn't be surprised to see this race come down to the final week.

For the entire second half of the season we've been looking for play-off races.  Now we have two; the Rangers and Angels, and the Red Sox and Rays.

The name speaks of confidence, power, fame, and fortune. It reminds us of royalty and glitz. While Ian Kennedy doesn't come from a long line of political powers, he has established himself as a power among National League pitchers.

"Whenever I hear 18 wins, I think of a good bullpen and a good offensive team, timely hitting, really," Kennedy said in an Associated Press article.

That sums up the belief many of the more progressive baseball statisticians have in wins. Less is controlled by the pitcher than the stat suggests. But 18 wins in Arizona is impressive. Not since Brandon Webb have the Diamondbacks been able to boast that kind of success. But let's take a closer look.

Saturday night, Kennedy and the Diamindbacks evened up their series with the Giants and extended their lead in the West back to 6 games. Ian Kennedy now has the most wins in the National League, and with only 4 losses, he has the best winning percentage. After showing so much promise in the Yankees farm system, Kennedy is proving he can be one of the best young pitchers in the league.  And he's doing it with simple development. 

Kennedy's walk per 9 innings ratio is the lowest it has been in his career at 2.36.  Leaving out his 2007 season with the Yankees when he pitched 19 innings and his 2009 season when he pitched 1 inning, Kennedy's home run per 9 innings ratio is the lowest of his career at 0.88.  He's not overpowering with strikeouts, but he is getting the job done with 167.  His FIP shows good defense behind him, and his ERA- is at 73 (meaning his ERA is 27% better than league average).


His stats speak for themselves, but what has changed?  Has he simply developed into an Ace pitcher?  Has he put everything together to make himself Cy Young caliber? 

One fairly noticeable change is the addition of a cutter.  Prior to this season, Kennedy did not throw the cutter.  This year, he is throwing it 8% of the time.  With the cutter, he now has five solid pitches.  The second most noticeable difference is the amount of pitches batters are swinging at out of the strikezone.  This season, Kennedy has his second highest percentage of pitches swung at outside of the zone at 28.6%.  (His highest was 28.9% in 2007 when he pitched only 19 innings) Finally, Kennedy is getting ahead of batters.  His first pitch strike percentage is 63.1, and batters are swinging and missing at 8.7% of his total pitches.


The chart below, courtesy of Fangraphs, shows Kennedy's velocity over the last few years.  He is clearly mixing his pitches better.  His highest velocity is higher than it has been in the past, and his lowest velocity is lower.

Ian Kennedy has done a lot to get the Diamondbacks where they are, and it is looking more and more like he will get a shot to be a number one starter in the postseason.  With a possible match-up of Kennedy vs. Halladay in the division series, fans should be treated to a pitcher's duel at its finest.  I'm sure the Yankees aren't complaining about receiving Curtis Granderson in the three-team trade that sent Kennedy to the Dbacks, but with their pitching trouble, how much could he have helped that team?

With an option year next season and an arbitration eligible year in 2013, it would be smart for the Diamondbacks to lock Ian Kennedy into a long-term deal now.  If he pitches like this next season, you can be sure an arbitrator will grant him 3-4 times the $423,000 he is making now.  But if you're living in the moment, as Diamondbacks fans should be doing, Kennedy is showing flashes of the dominance this team showed in 2001.  10 years after they won the World Series, Arizona has a clear-cut ace and a chance to go all the way again.