The 5.5 Hole

How much do runs actually matter?  You've heard over and over again about the American League Central.  Only one team has a positive run differential (scoring more runs on the season than their opponents).  Scoring runs clearly create wins, but how much does the amount of runs actually matter?  Taking the run differential totals, I re-ranked the teams in each division.  Some results are to be expected, but some are surprising.

First the American League:

A.L. East:
NY Yankees +185
Boston +157
Tampa Bay +51
Toronto +22
Baltimore -135

A.L. Central:
Detroit +4
Chicago White Sox -17
Cleveland -18
Kansas City -65
Minnesota -137

A.L. West:
Texas +101
Los Angeles Angels +24
Oakland -21
Seattle -70

Not many surprises here.  The Twins would actually rank lower than the Royals if run differential determined standings.  Yet, the Twins with their -137 actually sit 2.5 games better in the standings than the Royals. While the White Sox are a 1/2 game back of the Indians for second place in the A.L. Central, their run differentials would put them slightly ahead and in second place.  The A.L. East and West match up exactly with the standings.  

Now for the National League:

N.L. East:
Philadelphia +158
Atlanta +70
NY Mets -21
Washington -27
Florida -79

N.L. Central:
Milwaukee +54
Cincinnati +44
St. Louis +36
Pittsburgh -46
Chicago Cubs -101
Houston -158

N.L. West:
Arizona +9
San Diego +5
Colorado 0
Los Angeles Dodgers -9
San Francisco -15

There's a little bit more of a shake up in the National League.  Washington, while ahead of the Mets by a game and a half in the standings, would actually rank behind the Mets using this method.  Cincinnati, 3 games behind St. Louis for second in the Central, is actually better by 8 runs in differential.  Then there's the West.  See anything strange?  First, the defending World Series Champions rank dead last.  Second, the San Diego Padres, currently planted firmly in the cellar, rank second.  Interestingly, the West is also the only division on baseball to have no teams with a run differential of -50 or less.  The lowest total is -15. 

What does this all mean?  It means that runs are important, but not the only ingredient for success.  If standings were based on total runs for the season, or how well teams outscore their opponents, this would be a different conversation altogether.  If that were the case, we'd be talking about the Padres challenging the Diamondbacks for the N.L. West crown.  We'd be talking about the Angels barely hanging on. 

But in the end, runs don't matter as much as wins. 

It's 10:30 AM.  You just woke up with the biggest hangover after an all night rager, and you find the girl you thought was pretty isn't quite so pretty the next morning lying next to you.  What do you do?

You never talk about it again.

That's what it seems the world is doing with the Pittsburgh Pirates.  It would seem America's feel good story of the year has turned into nothing more than another case of beer goggles for most people.  The Pirates, losers of five straight, find themselves deep in third place, six games back of the Brewers.  They are sitting on an even 54-54 record, and would seem the lightest of breezes could knock them back to a 19th losing season.

But all that said, the Pirates are still alive and kicking.  At least for now.  I have counted the Pirates as not only a team that will have a winning record at year's end, but will contend in the division.  Teams can go through a bad stretch.  Even the best ones lose multiple games in a row.  The problem with the Pirates is that while so much of this country was all-in on the Pirates bandwagon, the same people were silently waiting for them to fall.

That's why no one is writing about a team that was formerly sitting in first place but lost five straight games to drop to third.  No one is talking about a team with 18 straight losing seasons who had us all convinced that streak would end.  No one is even thinking about what this means for a franchise so deep in losing, an entire generation has been lost. 

I'm not sure what's worse, to have the doomsday prophecies come out in August, or to be ignored.  Either way, the Pirates are not done.  They have enough talent to carry them to a winning season.  Maybe not a division title, but a winning season nonetheless.  The fact is, the Pirates have no choice but to finish this season above .500. 

I'm not sure the city of Pittsburgh can handle being led on most of the season only to be turned away into the October cold with nothing but the memories of another losing season.  The Pirates were buyers at the trade deadline for the first time in years.  They have drawn more fans to both the park and the television.  They appeared on ESPN for the first time since 2002.  They simply cannot finish this season with a losing record. 

I choose to keep my beer goggles on.  I choose to maintain the same beliefs now that the Pirates are in third place that I did when they were in first place.  They have good pitching, play solid defense, and manufacture runs.  For a team with a low payroll and limited offensive power, those qualities usually lead to success.  So don't worry Pittsburgh, you're still the same team I met at the bar last night, and I'm not ready to run out and forget you.