The 5.5 Hole

Let me start with this disclaimer: I am an admitted Albert Pujols apologist.  I love everything about the guy.  His performance on the field, the way he carries himself, his philanthropic contributions.  Everything.  So, as you read this piece about Pujols' contract negotiations you can write it off.  Or, you can love it and appreciate the logic.  I believe you will do the second thing.

I'll start by reminding everyone that we live in a different world than those of athletes.  If we pass judgement because we can't fathom the amount of money athletes make, we don't really have a leg to stand on in the argument.  Yet, that doesn't seem to be the main issue many people have with Pujols and the contract negotiations.  It would seem that most people are put off by Pujols' rejection of $200 million.  But why?

Pujols signed his current contract after the 2003 season.  He would make $13.875 a year million for the next eight years.  Pujols was coming off a .329/.403/.610 season in 2001, a .314/.394/.561 season in 2002, and a .359/.439/.667 season in 2003.  That's a pretty good start to a career, but no one could have known that Pujols would carry these types of number in every year of his career.  $13.875 million a year seemed fair.  But it quickly became clear that Pujols was the greatest player in the game.  Yet, his salary was being outpaced by players like Ryan Howard, Mark Teixiera, and even Miguel Cabrera.  Inferior players were making more than Pujols (inferior but still of All Star quality).  Ryan Howard is making $25 million a year.  Mark Teixeira is making $22.5 million a year.  Miguel Cabrera is making $19 million a year.  Pujols is better than all of them.

But Pujols played out his contract.  He didn't demand a trade to a team willing to pay him more immediately.  He didn't demand a new contract.  He played it out.  Now that it's time for him to renegotiate, he is getting flak for wanting to see what he's worth on the open market.

Last we heard, the Cardinals had reportedly offered something like eight years, $200 million.  That equates to $25 million a year.  Pujols was reportedly looking for ten years, $300 million.  So he rejected $200 million.  If any team is willing to pay him more, why shouldn't he take it? 

Perspective check:
You're working in an office making $40,000 a year.  From everything you've heard, everyone acknowledges you as the best at what you do, including other companies.  There are other employees, employees who are not as good as you, who make more.  Say you find out a few of these employees within your own company and at other companies are making 44% more than you.  That comes to roughly $57,000 and some change.  Now you know other companies want you and are willing to pay you.  Is there anything wrong with demanding say $67,000?  You're better, companies want you.  It would seem the market would place at least that value on you.  Now, let's assume your own company offers you the $57,000 others are making who clearly are inferior in performance.  Would anyone second guess your decision to test the market and see if you can in fact get the $67,000 elsewhere?

I know many of you may have stopped reading, shocked that I am using numbers with no baseball statistical relevance, but for those of you who continued on, you probably realized this is a simplified version of Pujols' situation using similar percentages scaled back to what we in middle-class America can understand.  When you look at it in terms of numbers we are familiar with, it doesn't seem so bad.  When you look at from a percentage standpoint, it doesn't look so bad. Ryan Howard is making 44% more than Pujols per year.  Pujols is better.  He should be paid more than Howard.  Pujols has asked to be paid 16.67% more than Howard.  Pretty reasonable considering his performance over the years.

So, nothing Pujols has asked seems out of line.  If you have issue with it, you simply have issue with contracts in baseball that have set the precedent.  You cannot blame Pujols for what other teams chose to pay players like Howard, Teixeira, and Cabrera. 

Now that I have blown your mind with numbers, go forth and praise Pujols, start a telethon to help him raise the money he should be earning, and bow at his feet.  Or continue to dislike him because he turned down $200 million.  I've said my piece.

There has long been a belief in baseball that players who mash monster home run totals but strike out so much even Nolan Ryan would feel the strikeout was cheapened are worth the cost as long as they continue smacking bombs. Names like Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds, and Carlos Pena come to mind. Yet, when production numbers are actually analyzed, teams would be better off spending money on a contact hitter who gets on base.

Let's take a look at some of the career numbers for these strikeout "kings." The numbers below are through 2010.

Mark Reynolds: 767 strikeouts in 1,982 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .387), career batting average of .240.
Adam Dunn: 1,632 strikeouts in 4,975 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .328), career batting average of .246.
Ryan Howard: 1,035 strikeouts in 3,237 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .320), career batting average of .275.
Carlos Pena: 1,131 strikeouts in 3,620 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .312), career batting average of .239.
B.J. Upton: 690 strikeouts in 2,435 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .283), career batting average of .256.
Rickie Weeks: 648 strikeouts in 2,413 at-bats (strikeout ratio of .268), career batting average of .256.

When your strikeout average is higher than your batting average, things can't be going too well right? Well considering the contracts some of these players have signed, maybe things are going just fine. Below is what each player has made in his career through 2010.


Adam Dunn: $56,695,000
Ryan Howard: $42,255,000
Carlos Pena: $28,342,000
Rickie Weeks: $8,796,000
B.J. Upton: $4,234,000
Mark Reynold: $1,652,333


Based on these career earnings and career at-bats, we will next look at what each player made per at-bat through: 2010:

Ryan Howard: $ 13,054 per at-bat
Adam Dunn: $11,396 per at-bat
Carlos Pena: $7,829 per at-bat
Rickie Weeks: $3,645 per at-bat
B.J. Upton: $1,739 per at-bat
Mark Reynolds: $834 per at-bat

For our next analysis, we will only look at the top-three salaries per at-bat. Rickie Weeks, B.J. Upton, and Mark Reynolds have not yet been paid in the same realm as the top-three sluggers. While overly simplistic and probably unfair, let's now look at what each of these top-three players made for unproductive strikeout outs in their careers through 2010.

Adam Dunn: $18,598,272
Ryan Howard: $13,510,890
Carlos Pena: $8,854,599

Maybe it's just me, but that's a lot to be paid for doing something any average Joe can do. So in fairness, let's take a look at what each player was paid for productive at-bats (hits + walks + HBP + SF + SH).

Adam Dunn: $26,621,056
Ryan Howard: $18,667,220
Carlos Pena: $12,103,634

So there you have it, not much separation between what these power-hitters are being paid to strike out compared to what they are being paid for production. Historically, 33% of Adam Dunn's contract, 32% of Ryan Howard's contract, and 31% of Carlos Pena's contract is wasted on strikeouts.

I already admitted this analysis is overly simplistic, but sometimes simple is all it takes. If I'm spending money on big name players, and each of these three players are big name, I'd like to get a little more production. But just to take the analysis a bit further, we'll wrap up by looking at these players' WAR (Wins Above Replacement) for their careers through 2010.


Ryan Howard: 20.8 (7 years, average WAR of 2.97)
Adam Dunn: 27.1 (11 years, average WAR of 2.46)
Carlos Pena: 13.1 (11 years, average WAR of 1.19)

Finally, I'll leave you with this; an MVP season is estimated to be 8+ WAR, an All-Star season is estimated to be 5+ WAR, a starter should be 2+ WAR, and a substitute should be 0-2 WAR. Carlos Pena is getting paid $10 million in 2011 to produce the WAR that a substitute could produce. Adam Dunn is getting paid $14,000,000 with an average WAR that barely puts him at starter level. Ryan Howard is being paid $20,000,000 and if you believe the WAR estimates, fans were right in not voting him to the 2011 All-Star Game.

Money well-spent?