The 5.5 Hole

It's not a normal occurrence.  The fact is, two brothers playing in the Major Leagues is simply abnormal.  Sure, it's been done before.  Brett and Aaron Boone, Chris and Tony Gwynn, Cal and Billy Ripken, Phil and Joe Niekro.  Those are just a few, but consider this; only about 0.5% of high school baseball players are ever drafted by a Major League club.  This doesn't mean they make the 25-man roster.  No, it simply means the odds of even being drafted - and in turn being given the opportunity to ride around on an old bus between cities hours apart - is a mere half a percent.  So, the odds of two brothers both playing Major League Baseball is significantly less.  The odds of two brothers hitting their 100th career home run on the same night?  Almost non-existent.

But it happened.

Justin Upton struck first.  He was facing Kyle Kendrick of the Philadelphia Phillies in the second inning of the Diamondbacks game in Philly last night.  On a 2-0 count, Justin took an 81 mph change up to left field for his 100th career home run.  B.J. hit his about an hour later.  On the first pitch he saw in the fourth inning of his game against the Orioles in Tampa Bay B.J. took a 91 mph cutter from Tommy Hunter to centerfield.

There's a feeling every kid has when the holidays approach. It's one of wonder, hope, excitement and joy. It's a feeling that I had always thought could never be duplicated. But I have that feeling now. I can feel it in my stomach, I can taste it on my tongue, and I can see it in the air.

A play-off race (or two) so close that it will come down to the last day of the season is the equivalent of Christmas. Its approach seems to take forever, but once it arrives nothing else can penetrate your thoughts. You count the days and hope you get something good. You sneak a peak at the presents under the tree and realize, you've got more than you thought.

After 160 games, we all have more than we thought under the tree. The Red Sox and Rays are tied for the Wild Card. The Braves have only a one game lead in the NL. These last two days will give us exactly what last season gave us. Play-off races down to the end of the season. The Padres, the Giants, and the Braves were all vying for two postseason spots last year. This year, four teams are battling for two spots.

The season will be coming to a close, and a new one will start soon. Like the transitioning seasons that offer a prelude to the holiday season, these changing seasons bring a prelude to baseball excitement. The anticipation of filling the final two spots is unlike anything else except Christmas as a kid. So bring on tomorrow's games and bring on Wednesday's games. Bring on the present as we look forward to the future. This is baseball, this is life, this is my Christmas.

After 14 innings, Boston had something to celebrate.  No, they didn't clinch the Wild Card.  They didn't clinch anything, in fact.  Except maybe some breathing room.  With Tampa Bay winning their game Sunday and Boston losing the first game of their double-header with New York, game two was a must win.  And if you think the Yankees were going to just roll over since they had already clinched everything they could clinch, you'd be dead wrong.

Brett Gardner's steal, playing the in-field in, Mo in the 9th.  The Yankees were playing to spoil the Red Sox season.  And that's what would have happened had Boston lost this game.  Had they lost, the Rays would have been tied with them for the Wild Card and the Angels would have been just one game back.  Instead, both the Red Sox and Yankees played like this was game seven of the World Series, and finally in the 14th inning, the Red Sox broke through with three runs to win it. 

Let's take a look at what this game really means.  Both the Rays and the Red Sox have three games left.  The Red Sox have three against the Orioles, the Rays three against the Yankees.  The Red Sox have their three on the road, and the Rays have their three at home.  The Yankees would be setting their postseason rotation, so the Rays likely won't see the Yankees' best.  The Orioles, on the other hand, have nothing but pride on the line.  Teams like this love to play spoiler, and their fans would love to see them knock the Red Sox out of the play-offs. 

What else?  Well, had Boston lost, they would have completed the biggest collapse in baseball history.  No one had ever had a 9-game lead on September 1st then blown it.  That's exactly what would have happened had the Red Sox lost game two of the double-header.  Sure, there are more games to play and a loss yesterday would not have precluded the Sox from the postseason, but it would have completed a meltdown of historic proportions. 

Let's not forget the added momentum the Rays would have taken from a Red Sox loss.  The Rays are already hot, despite three straight losses to the Yankees last week.  This time around, the Rays will be playing for their postseason lives.  The Yankees will likely be resting their starters.  Tampa Bay, if their fans actually come out to the park, will be rocking in hopes of a miraculous play-off berth. 

Yes, a Boston loss in game two of that double-header yesterday would have changed things, but these last three games should be intense.  While a tie leading into these last three games would have been more interesting, and it will still take quite a bit of work for the Rays to pull of this upset, play-off baseball has already started. 

Tampa Bay is trying to pull off a feat as improbable as the Colorado Rockies run in 2007.  Maybe as improbable as the '51 Giants in the fact that they are doing this in the American League East, the toughest division in baseball.  They're not there yet, but the Rays are now just 5.5 games back of the Red Sox for the Wild Card with 19 games to play.  They're only 5 games back in the loss column. 

These teams play two more games at the Trop this weekend, then face off at Fenway in a four-game series at the end of next week.  Depending on whether the Red Sox can bounce back from injuries and poor pitching performances, they may find themselves on the receiving end of a comeback for the ages. 

On August 1, 2011 the Rays found themselves 9 games back of the Wild Card behind the Yankees and the Angels.  Since that date, they have gone 23-13.  They're 15 games above .500 and hold a (slightly) better record than the Angels who are in a much better position for a postseason appearance.  While 5.5 games back with 19 games to go is not an enviable position, it's a better position than the Rays were in on September 1st.  They were 8.5 games back with just 24 to play.  All but out of the play-off picture much like the White Sox, Indians, and Giants are now.  But now, they're back in it.  They've delayed the discussions of what is sure to be another off-season of "rebuilding" and firmly planted themselves in the play-off discussions instead.

What makes this feat even more remarkable is where this team was at the end of the 2010 season.  Almost a year ago today, on September 22, 2010, Rays owner Stuart Stenberg all but declared the death of competitive baseball in Tampa Bay. He told reporters the Rays would be cutting payroll no matter what.  Not an encouraging sign for a team on its way to another postseason berth and a fan base hoping a deep run would bolster the team's finances.  He said the team would cut payroll in the off-season by $22 million at least, maybe more.  We won't have an accurate picture of what the Rays spent in 2011 until after the season concludes, but it sure looks like a team with a $50 million payroll rather than a $72 million payroll.  But they're still winning.  In the American League East. 

Surprisingly, the Rays have managed to compete with offense and fielding more than pitching.  Sure they have "Complete Game"' Shields and David Price, but outside of those two pitchers, the rotation is not very good.  Shields and Price have combined for 9.5 WAR this season.  The other three starters have combined for only 4.3 WAR (According to Fangraphs). But they've made up for it on offense.  They're offensive WAR of 24.5 ranks them only behind the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rangers.  They've stole the third most bases in the American League and have the third best success rate for stolen bases.  They're 41.8 Ultimate Zone rating ranks them only behind the Red Sox in the A.L., and they're DRS (defensive runs saved) rating of 61 ranks them number one.

The Tampa Bay Rays have defied expectations, shed payroll, and continued to compete in a division full of offensive juggernauts like the Red Sox, Yankees, and Blue Jays.  They may not be able to get over the hump and take the Wild Card, but they've given themselves a decent shot.  With the Red Sox struggles and the Rays surge, I wouldn't be surprised to see this race come down to the final week.

For the entire second half of the season we've been looking for play-off races.  Now we have two; the Rangers and Angels, and the Red Sox and Rays.